Three Left, Two Needed for the Bears to go Bowling
It's Senior Day Saturday, but while it's the end of the home slate, it's the beginning of a final push for bowl eligibility for this senior group, one that's only been to the Armed Forces Bowl in 2015.
There's been much said about players with NFL stock sitting out bowl games that don't mean as much, but any bowl will do for the Bears, as the most valuable thing for them is the practice time. Bowl teams get 15 extra practices, which help the younger players with development. Cal currently has five seniors starting total on offense and defense, which means this is a young team that can use the reps to grow, especially with first year systems across the board.
In order to do that, they need two out of the next three, with the home game against Oregon State upcoming and road rivalry games at Stanford after the bye and at the Rose Bowl against UCLA on Black Friday.
This all starts with the most winnable of the remaining games and the first game against an FBS opponent that the Bears have been favored in all year, against Oregon State.
Oregon State
Where do they sit: 1-7 overall, 0-5 in conference, with an interim coach in Cory Hall
Top Players: RB Ryan Nall, LB Manase Hungalu, LB Jonathan Willis
Thoughts:
Oregon State provides the best chance for the Bears to win, even with a rejuvenated Beaver team under Hall. The Beavers have suffered quite a bit on the year, with starting quarterback Jake Luton suffering a thoracic spinal fracture and likely being out for the year. Oregon State has also has their top two corners out in Dwayne Williams and Xavier Crawford, and another one doubtful in Jay Irvine.
The Bears will have their opportunities against the Beaver in that regard, facing a team that's only had one passing touchdown with Darrell Garretson at the helm. The Bears need to prove that they can stop the run, because it's going to play a big role in this game and the next matchup against Stanford. They also have to prove that they can move the ball, as the Beaver ILBs Hungalu and Willis have proven adept at making stops, like they did last week against the Cardinal.
Post Oregon State is a bye, where the Bears can prep even more for a Stanford team that will likely have Bryce Love back in action.
Stanford
Where do they sit: 6-2 (4-1) with losses coming against USC and San Diego State
Top Players: RB Bryce Love, DL Harrison Phillips
Thoughts:
Last week woke people up to two things about Stanford. The first is that Love is really important to the Stanford offense. They looked anemic without him as Cameron Scarlett couldn't get anything going for the Cardinal. The second is that they probably need a quarterback change, with Keller Chryst having a poor performance, getting intercepted once and having a few other interceptions dropped.
By the time the Big Game rolls around, Love will likely be healthy, I wouldn't expect him to play Saturday against Washington State, and KJ Costello will likely be the quarterback. Stanford's a big front, bigger than any team Cal will have seen, and this will be Wilcox and DeRuyter's opportunity to scheme against it in their base 3-4, possibly taking some notes off what Washington State does, with their size being similar to Cal.
The underrated aspect of this matchup is the uncharacteristic defensive issues that the Cardinal have had. They've struggled against the run (91st in yards per carry allowed), they've struggled at getting off the field on 3rd downs (118th in allowing teams to convert), and they just lost one of their top DBs for the year in Alijah Holder. It's a winnable game for the Bears, but it'll require them to play a complete game, something that they haven't really done yet on both sides of the ball.
After that bring us to Cal's final edition of Pac-12 After Dark, in the Rose Bowl on Black Friday at UCLA
UCLA
Where Do They Sit: 4-4, 2-3 in conference
Top Players: QB Josh Rosen, LB Kenny Young
Thoughts:
Another year of tough sledding for the Bruins, one where it seems likely to outsiders that they'll be in need of a new quarterback and a new coach in 2018. Josh Rosen is a likely top 10 pick and Jim Mora has earned the ire of many a Bruin fan.
That being said, Cal vs. UCLA is always weird, and seemingly always won by the home team, including last year's strange game and odd matchups in 2011 and 2012. The last time a Cal team won in the Rose Bowl was 2009, when Jahvid Best took a toss, reversed field, and took it 93 yards to the house. This year, UCLA has a similarly porous run defense, one that's over a half a yard worse per carry than Cal's run defense from a year ago.
Cal's run game has looked serviceable two of the past three weeks, but it'll need to develop more to go against the Bruins, who could be in a state of disarray by the time this game comes around (Rosen has been hurt recently, but it's not serious enough to take him out). Cal's line needs to get healthier by the time this game rolls around to be successful, but with a bowl game likely to be on the line, this may end up being the sixth win for the Bears if they can't come away with the Axe.