The Novella: Arizona State

Editor's Note: This is a condensed version of the novel this week. The extended novel will be back next week.

Maybe we all misheard.

Maybe those loud chants, emanating from out of Oxford and echoing all the way back west last week were omens, declarations, not battle cries.

Not Bears in 4. Bears end: 4.

That, of course, is not true.

But if you feel like the season has ended on Saturday, or Sunday, or Monday – whenever it is you happen to be stumbling across these words – I can’t, and won’t fully blame you. The first conference loss in any year can often feel that way, since it puts the Rose Bowl dreams for that season on life support, no matter how realistic or unrealistic those aspirations actually were; the second loss will usually end them. That’s part of what makes college football so special – the shoelace-thin margin of error each season is precisely what allows each game to be meaningful in the first place. Few will remember a random Week 7 matchup in the pros; everyone can still remember what the 7th game of Cal’s 2007 was, 12 years later.

Still, that much, we should be somewhat used to, since keeping January 1st open has been a tradition going back 60 years now.

What made Friday a bit more heart-wrenching than usual was knowing what else was lost. Up until the injury – which, at the time of writing isn’t confirmed to be season-ending, but we’ve all watched enough football to pretty much know -- Chase Garbers was earning more and more believers with each completion, literally maturing before our very eyes and soaring up the conference QB rankings. It feels particularly cruel to have that taken away from him.

And then there was the second injury too – another blow to a fanbase just starting to return. Notoriously reticent as we’ve been over the last decade, many did answer the calls to #PackCalMemorial. This was a week where the groupchats were abuzz, and the young alums were dipping their toes back in the waters of Cal football; the more faithful (foolish?) among them, cannonballing back in with their clothes on. Win this week, and some dreams could become louder than just whispers.

Instead, a lot of that will be quieted now – the casual fanbase hibernating again for the next opportunity -- as we turn our attention back to what’s ahead.

For the second column in a row, I find myself again writing that there is a lot of football left, and plenty to play for. This still holds in the absence of Chase Garbers, no matter how much Devon Modster struggled against the Sun Devils.

And indeed, in some ways, the Bears are back to a familiar place again. Bruce Feldman tweeted something during the game that sums it up pretty accurately – without Garbers, this looks, in essence, like the Cheez-It Bowl team of 2018…except with a shakier defense.

Assuming Feldman’s observation becomes prophecy, and the offense does regress to that kind of level, this can and still should be a bowl eligible team – banking four wins early was huge for that. But even more -- this can be a team that takes back the Axe, with Stanford being the weakest they’ve been this decade. This can be a team that beats a pedestrian UCLA squad. This should be a team that wins against conference bottom-feeder Oregon State. Those are all soft conditionals though, because the offense on Friday played to a level that makes no win a sure thing, as we feared things would be three weeks ago before Chase Garbers’ dramatic improvements. It’s important not to let whatever happens up in Oregon affect the evaluations too much; the bye will be the most crucial thing in fully situating Modster at QB1.

The only real certainty going forward is that this will be a team that continues to play their asses off regardless. I do not expect there to be any loss of fight by these Bears – and by the looks of it, neither does Evan Weaver.

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An aside: thank you to everyone who said hi to me around town or was kind enough to seek me out in the stands on Friday night. I am not home often enough for these games, and while it is always a little bit weird for me to be approached (I have mild social anxiety), I really appreciate it. Thanks for enjoying my work, even when my work inadvertantly curses the biggest home game in years.

II. Notebook

Shorter than usual this time because no one really wants to talk about the game, and I’ve been not exactly champing at the bit to review it myself after the travel.

- ASU won yards per play by a little over 1 at the end (although this gap didn’t exist very much while Garbers was in), and had more chances overall – they missed two field goals, which meant the Bears were a bit fortunate to still be within one score in the first place.

- The (NEW!) Chase Garbers is legit. The touchdown throw to Trevon Clark was a thing of mastery – ASU showed 6 rushers, backed down to 5, but he trusted the line to pick it up, then found Trevon Clark coming free on a fade. Calm. Confident. The sample size is small, but there feels like there’ll be a lot to like in 2020 with him back, even though the defense will be rebuilding…

- Marcel Dancy continues to be a wizard with what he’s given. A true joy to watch. Unfortunate that ASU was able to focus on the run once they knew Modster wouldn’t throw.

- Again, Modster should look better with a full week of practice against Oregon – although the matchups aren’t exactly in Cal’s favor there – but a lot better after the bye. Tough to take your first action in two years in the way he did.

- Going with a lot more 5 wide looks, and at least won early with them. Team still needs Kekoa Crawford back, though. (Surprising to me thus far that Jeremiah Hawkins hasn’t been used more, but I guess he’s probably 4th or 5th in the pecking order after Remigio at his position and the outside guys.)

- Good job in pass pro by the line on Friday, really. Feel pretty good about that one.

- Not a glorious game by the defense, which got exposed as uncoordinated a bit in space – the gaps in zones were found. They played some dime, some three safety packages, tried Evan Weaver, Kuony Deng as spies, even had a great game from the returning Cam Goode, to gamely give the offense one last chance down 24-17, but the reality is they’re kind of exploitable at the line of scrimmage, and only have one big backer in run support. (Even Weaver didn’t have his best game in space, partly because everyone was so occupied in other places, and partly because he wasn’t always kept clean.)

- A lot of Havoc forced by Cal, but it feels kind of misleading, because a lot of it didn’t come in optimal situations – ASU’s average third down was still 6.8 yards, which is fairly manageable compared to what Cal’s seen in recent weeks.

- The reality is, they’re just not incredibly big at the moment. Getting Benjamin to sub 4 yards per carry was already an accomplishment in itself, given how shorthanded Cal is, but stopping a run oriented offense requires getting more negative and zero yard gains than they did, particularly in the second half, because once it’s an “and short” situation, they’re giving it up more often than not. (Benjamin was not tackled for a loss in the second half, compared to 4 times in the first half.)

- The slight worries about the nose tackle position might improve once Maldonado gets back into game shape two weeks from now. Other than that, the only other likely unplayed cards here that I can think of include Tattersall/Doughty in the middle. You’d prefer to preserve the freshmen if you can (Smith/Antzoulatos).

- Appreciate Greg Thomas a bit more after you saw ASU’s kicker miss two.