The Novel: Washington

I. Intro

Well, the worst is almost over.

We knew this stretch would be rough heading into the season – that the Bears are still .500 and haven’t dipped below yet is, again, due to impressive work by the staff beating the marginal opponents that bad teams do not even manage to.

This game, circled as a “no chance” win long in advance, played out right as many of us figured it would, save for the fact that UW did not overwhelm us in the same embarrassing way they did last year, when they delivered a series of lowlights that will live on in the eternity of Youtube.

The Huskies did them a mercy via meat grinder instead, turning them into an unwatchable paste of a 2017 opponent that no one will really remember. Play after play, the meat grinder turned, until at game’s end was a 31 point victory devoid of dominant individual moments, but contained all of a dominant collective whole. There was gnashing of line on line, the mush of Cal ball carriers swallowed by purple razor blades, the steady roll of an offense that was mostly only inconvenienced, set on loop, each play indistinguishable from the last.

Cal did not go quietly or willingly, and commendably so, but Saturday was a four quarter reminder of how far away the elites of the conference remain, and it is deeply unfortunate that the Bears have had to face these reminders in back-to-back-to-back weeks -- they can sap a team of its momentum, a fanbase of its enthusiasm. They are starting to, somewhat already, at least among the latter.

Take heart.

It will not always be like this.

It won’t even be like this much longer – after Friday, the last five games should be far more competitive, and should they not be, we should already be aware of a fair rationale for why things are declining from the Wilcox-led Bears: Roster flaws can only be managed in-season, not fixed entirely.

A tough thought to consume at the moment.

II. Other thoughts

But yeah, Friday. That one’ll probably look a lot like this one, where we lose consistently to Alex Grinch’s “Speed D” and noted front 4 demigod Hercules – of course – Mata’afa.

I think any of the last five are winnable. There are never any guarantees, of course, and with the offense playing at this level the last three weeks, even OSU might be a crapshoot. Luckily those last two most winnable games – Zona and OSU – are at home. So there’s that.

(I mean shoot I projected 4 wins before the year and we still have a shot at getting way more than that number.)

Yes, Khalil Tate. The team hasn’t done that badly against running quarterbacks this year, and by the time he reaches Berkeley, there will be far more tape on him, rather than being just a flat out mystery.

If anything, that tells you Colorado’s not invulnerable either.

III. Offense (Troll)

Second straight failing week (from me), because context considered, we were still totally outplayed on every snap.

On first watch – live – it didn’t appear that Beau Baldwin was doing that much that was new. Perhaps I’m not looking that closely – I’ll be looking more closely - or his personnel really isn’t allowing it, but there feels like there’s not much that he’s trying differently to jumpstart the passing game or the running game right now. No bunch. No trips. No stack. Just kind of straight forward, although the personnel groupings were featuring more Jeremiah Hawkins, Zion Echols, and Derrick Clark.

This is also somewhat backed up when you think about how many teams are starting to get hands on our passes or jumping routes. They recognize what’s happening out there, and I’m a little puzzled by our lack of evolution. I’m able to cut him a little slack due to the whole not having players thing, but man…the offensive staff seems quite a bit more behind the defensive one. No WRs are getting that much better, Ragle has had no net effect on ST, we barely play a TE at all – but Reino did have a solid game for a true frosh – and Bowers isn’t quite advancing either, and he’s running out of rope.

Not sure why Vic Enwere didn’t get more carries. At this point and against a team like UW, he’s a stronger option due to his size and power, which I’ve reiterated before. Didn’t do too shabby on his handful of carries. Shabby is a relative term, of course, since no one got more than 9 yards on any touch.

Thought Derrick Clark ran hard. Showed some good things, again, without very much to work with. The team is banking on him and Echols to improve for next year with these snaps, which has been here and there. You can tell they’re just not quite ready at the moment.

Disappointing week from Brandon Singleton, who was handed a starting role with Noa out and Wharton moving around to compensate. Many of us hoped he might be ready to break out.

The swing pass to Patrick Laird was a great valve earlier, but teams are now keying on it, and this stretch of the schedule is brutal for him to try to win 1 on 1s against. I suppose that’s what you’re left with when you have no separation downfield from anyone else.

I’m not saying take the job from Bowers directly, but I think we’ve seen enough to at least open the competition again, right? Sure, Forrest was playing against the second string, but have we seen anything from Bowers that makes us confident in him going forward this season? He’s absolutely skittish in the pocket right now, he’s tripping over himself and running into guys, and there’s nothing happening for him in the pass game with these receivers.

Line was bad.

IV. Defense (Grade: Exceeds Expectations)

Four drives that began inside Cal territory (three of 13 if you take out the last one), backed by an offense that gained 93 total yards and could not keep it time of possession whatsoever when it mattered.

Those are the conditions you face and you give up 38 points on 4.7 YPP, dragging UW’s average down to 6.62? Yeah, you have to be pretty happy with those results. The points are a function of the field position moreso than our inability to play very well on this side of the ball.

For those lamenting the loss of Devante Downs – like myself – next year, remember that we already have one guy on the roster who can do basically all the same things. That’s Evan Weaver, who displayed some freakish motor and hand strength, dragging down ball carriers from angles we’re used to players missing. Sure, it’s two TFLs. But each week he gets out there at Mike and looks better is a win for us. Future us, anyway.

Another guy who flashed a few times? Tevin Paul. Haven’t been able to get too much statistical production from the front three, which is the design of the defense, but he did roll up two TFLs (one of which was a sack). Considering most of the two deep is leaving at this position, it’s a positive sign for him to play his way into the rotation next year.

Solid tackling job outside by the DBs. Nothing broken – noted lack of UW playmakers and all – for major gains by Pettis, which only left Hunter Bryant to roam for maddening chunks of yardage instead. I am willing to bet that when Cam Goode is fully developed and the team has a ready replacement for Funches, that this may look better. UW was simply killing us with TE in the flat off roll out, which requires some strong athleticism to chase from the edge of the box.

Run fits were way better! UW didn’t appear to play as many tricks with the ball or read stuff – again, this is a comment based on what I saw live, but we were from a poor angle and my eyes could have deceived me - but for the most part, guys were in way better positions without long breakdowns anywhere.

The Jake Browning option run was probably the only real breakdown, and even then they had the right guy in position. Just bounced off him instead.

Can’t be upset at anything that happened here really.

V. Unofficial Advanced Stats

Yards per Play: 1.8 is obviously the worst Cal output since I’ve started recording these, and likely the worst Cal output in 6+ years I’ve been writing about the team. Is it a record? Probably not, but I’m definitely not able to recall any worse at the moment.

Needless to say, this number – seriously, it was less than two yards per play, which means it would have required basically six downs before a first! - ruined what was a strong performance holding down an efficient – albeit not particularly explosive – Husky team.

Explosiveness: 1 on 52. Another low water mark. Pick a play card, any play card. Is that an explosive? Nope.

Third Downs: I’m getting dangerously close to copying and pasting this each week – the third down struggles on offense come from an inability to move the ball early in downs at all. One of the few sore spots for the defense also came in this area, as they gave up a handful of passing 3rd and longs – 8, 9, and 16 – in addition to most of the shorter stuff.

Points Per Trip/Plays in Opp. Terr: One trip, and seven total snaps in UW territory. In the fourth quarter. Against their backups, and playing our own. Yikes.

Havoc: 25%. 25%!!!

VI. Special Teams (Dreadful)

Plus point for the Ashtyn Davis hurdle.

Plus point for no UW returns of value.

Minus points for no Cal returns of value.

Minus points for the fumbled snap when we were trying to force even a push on the spread. (Which happened due to Luke Rubenzer being out and Dylan Klumph not going back out in the second half, forcing Steven Coutts to be the holder, a position he hadn't done much of)

Minus points for making a beautiful onside kick come back a yard short.

Minus, minus points for the 17 yards of UW punt returns on average – they took back 4 for 66 yards.

VII. Final Thoughts

Repeat after me. It’s almost over. And it’ll be on Friday night, so you get to enjoy your weekend! How dope is that?