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The Novel: Oregon State

I. Intro

Well, it sure is nice when you take care of business, isn’t it?

To maintain bowl eligibility hopes – no matter how slim – the Bears had to take this one from a feisty Oregon State squad, and did just that. It wasn’t particularly sexy, or dominant – as you’ll see later, the stat sheet actually isn’t all that far apart for either side – but it did get done, which is the kind of result we would have hoped for last week, and that decent programs do in general.

There isn’t too much else to say to introduce this game, really, since the rest will be covered by the other sections.

They did what they had to do. No frills, no tricks -- just knowing we are the more talented team, and playing like it for four quarters, which, after the fun and dramatic style that resulted in more “fun” but less winning, is a welcome change. (I may or may not have fallen in for a nap at the end of the second quarter. I’ll never tell.)

And truthfully, I could get used to this.

We all could, really.

II. Other Thoughts

Of the two games remaining, you have to like the odds against a probably Rosen-less, can’t tackle against the run to save their lives, might have already quit on Jim Mora UCLA team. And you could also talk yourself into feeling good about Stanford, which still might not have a healthy Bryce Love in two weeks, will be coming off a brutal, physical match-up and likely loss to Washington, and plays us off of a bye in an environment that will not be a true home game.

I’m on the record as not being mad if we don’t make a bowl, and I’m sticking to it, because it’s not fair to revise upward on a team that’s really maximizing all it has left. For God’s sake, we’re up to 11 guys out for the year now: Rambo, Turner, Robertson, Saffle, Goode, Downs, Daltoso (likely), Hudson, Stovall, Watson, and Johnson.

That being said, given all of the above, if you told me we’d be in this position through 10 games, I would take it. Even the conditions heading into UCLA and Stanford are about as ideal as they can be for us.

So let’s go do the thing, paying no mind to the fact that we could have already gotten it done right now were it not for one incomplete pass.

After resting up, I mean. Goddamn.

What a time to get a bye. We want the Axe. Got one to grind. /extremely Future voice

III. Offense (Exceeds Expectations)

Third best game this season by YPP, but one of the others with a better YPP marker was Weber, and the other was UNC where we didn’t execute nearly this well. Thus, probably the best offensive performance of the year – certainly from a consistency standpoint -- which was only curved downward due to the fact that it was still Oregon State. (And they lost two starters to targeting.)

Let’s talk about Ross Bowers. I am standing by my take that he doesn’t have the job locked up for next year – and shouldn’t, since competition is healthy and he hasn’t been so consistently solid to have earned the right to be entrenched – but games like this do help a ton. Outside of two or so horrible throws (and I suspect this will never exactly erase itself), he was in complete control and comfortable the whole way, with the first touchdown to Wharton about as perfect as he could get it.

This is what we want from him. Be efficient. Move the chains. Keep it safe. Dazzle us here and there – and he did.

Against the bad teams, he’s capable of achieving this. Against the only decent team we beat – WSU – he did the same, and had he played a shade cleaner against Arizona, we probably win that one too. Point is, if this is the kind of game, or at least some reasonable facsimile thereof, that they can receive from Ross every week, then he’ll start in 2018, easily, despite his noted limitations. This is enough to win a lot of games with.

The issue is never knowing or not being sure how to project when he’ll fall apart, or if he does, which is why the accuracy thing looms so huge this offseason. (Even in a game like this, there were moments of inconsistency that would have hurt worse in more competitive match-ups, like the sack on second and goal.)

Still -- 17 of Bowers’ 24 completions went for a first down or a touchdown. That’s 70%. Pretty good, and 7 different receivers caught a pass with plenty of run after catch opportunities.

Another good Bowers thing: no passes defensed by OSU.

Patrick Laird…what is there to say about the galloping ghost that hasn’t been said already? The guy wasn’t even supposed to be in this position, and has done an outstanding job all year dragging the offense along on his back. (Noa too, but we projected Noa as a starter and contributor the whole way – Laird was reported on broadcast as saying he would have been happy with 30 touches all year. He had more than that today alone.)

Laird rushed for 13 first downs/touchdowns among his 33 carries, including a conversion on 3rd and 11, 1st and 13, and three more on 1st and 10. That’ll do, Patty. That’ll do. Now camp out in the ice tub for the next few days.

Think I spotted him hugging it out with Manase Hungalu at the end of the game too. Hungalu spent most of the afternoon chasing down Laird to the tune of 20 tackles, so I’m pretty sure they’re legally roommates. I don’t make the rules. I just enforce them arbitrarily.

At this point in the year, it’s pretty obvious we’re not going to beat any teams by being explosive. But we can sure as hell do so if we stay on schedule and just keep it moving, which is why this was so encouraging, despite who it might have come against. Patrick Mekari returning to slide Bennett back to guard – and also removing Gibson, who isn’t quite ready yet – had a domino effect of opening up the left side as a result, and a good chunk of his runs went that way for a reason.

Wharton was really on one. With the Beavers intent on slowing Noa in the middle of the field, Wharton feasted and really laid out for the pass to set up the field goal at half, too. Then there was the ridiculous attempt to catch and return the punt in the first quarter or so. You only try that if you’re feeling confident.

Nice to get the two seniors on offense – Enwere and Veasy – scores on their last home game. That’s gotta feel really good and memorable, and Veasy really seemed to be soaking it all in. If you check the Cal twitter video, he’s spotted recording the Bear Territory chant from the locker room. Thanks to both guys for their contributions.

IV. Defense (Exceeds Expectations)

This same group of guys allowed Ryan Nall to steamroll them, and I’m willing to bet they remembered how poorly they executed last October, because Nall only ran for 35 yards on 12 carries this time around, and although he would also be the leading receiver with 4 catches for 54 yards, that would be more than enough. After all, teams more talented than us had trouble containing him – Nall ran for 172 against Colorado, and 118 against Washington State, for God’s sake.

Nall – 1st down or touchdown carries: 5 of 12

2 yards or less carries: 6 of 12

Shutting down Nall – holding him to short gains, as it were – may not have resulted in a ton of Havoc, but it did set up third and longers, where Garretson would be asked to pass the ball. This was bend but don’t break taken.

He did not. The Beavers were 2 of 7 on 3rd down pass attempts, and drops or not, his couple of downfield completions weren’t going to be enough to really scare us this week.

Whether he was hurting before or not, for whatever reason, Weaver looked much better this week from a mobility standpoint and a production one too. He, not Kunaszyk, was the leading tackler on the team with 9 (5 solo). The team will need him a ton next year, and if he’s actually hurting a little bit, the bye week will be extra good for him. (And Laird. And Ross. Man, those three guys took a beating.)

Really good tackling from all levels of the defense, with the only real mistake being that one QB throwback – somewhat joking but it was the third best throw of the day from the Oregon State bunch, all things considered. Davison caught looking was enough.

This defense is only losing James Looney, Devante Downs, Tony Mekari, Ray Davison, and Darius Allensworth among guys with a starting role, and with the exception of Mekari, has a ready and game-repped replacement as is. Each of them has suffered through some horrendous defensive development until now, and I’m just really glad to see them all thrive. Davison and Looney combined on another sack today, Darius has played his way back into a starting spot after being surprisingly benched, and none of them have ever, ever quit despite the conditions. They’ll all be missed.

Didn’t notice either Josh Drayden or Traveon Beck – they didn’t record a stat – much. Wondering if their PT dropped a little after last week against the Buffalo.

Rest in peace to my other son Cameron Goode. Please get well soon. Keeping in line with Justin Wilcox’s hockey-style injury reports, we have no idea what he’s dealing with specifically, only that it is enough to keep him out for the last three games of the year. We project he should be back before long.

I am not sure who starts at nose next year with Mekari gone, but I have to think Tevin Paul’s playing himself into the conversation for the spot opposite Zeandae Johnson.

V. Unofficial Advanced Stats

Advanced Stats: Cal-OSU
Cal Oregon State

Basics

Possessions

10

9

Yards per Play

6.2

5.2

Explosiveness

Explosiveness % (% or runs 10+ yards; passes 20+ yards)

11 (3 pass, 8 run) on 76 - 14.4%


Explosiveness margin: +3

8 (4 pass, 4 run) on 57 - 14%

3rd Downs

Conversions

6 of 10

5 of 13

Average yards to go on 3rd down

6.8

6.9

Short Yardage

Power success rate (% of runs with 2 or fewer yards on 3rd and 4th down that were successful)

1 of 3 - Laird 1 of 2, Enwere 0 of 1

4 of 4 - Nall

Field Position

Avg. Starting F.P. | Plays in opponent territory

Own 32 | 50 of 76 (65%)

1Q – 15
2Q – 9
3Q – 16
4Q - 10

Own 22 | 23 of 57 (40.3%)

1Q – 7
2Q – 9
3Q – 2
4Q - 5

Points per trip inside 40

11:16 1Q – 7
1:12 1Q – 7

11:47 2Q – 3 [incomplete easy screen, incomplete out]
00:41 2Q – 3

14:53 3Q – 0 [fumble]
6:51 3Q – 3
:23 3Q – 7

10:30 4Q – 7

37 on 8 = 4.62

15:00 1Q – 7

5:19 2Q – 3 [dropz]
3:07 2Q – 3

2:09 3Q – 7

6:10 4Q - 3

23 on 5 = 4.6

Defense

Havoc (percentage of disruptive plays – TFL, picks, PDs, FFs, sacks – divided by total plays. 16.2% is the national average)

5 (3 TFL, 1 PD, 1 FF) on 57 - 8.7%

6 (5 TFL, 1 FF) on 76 plays - 7.8%

Yards Per Play – The gap here wasn’t particularly decisive, which was interesting, although it’s likely closer to 1.2 to 1.3 yards per play differential for Cal, since we kneeled to end the game. Still, the rest of the stat sheet is weirdly close. Yards to go on third down. Explosiveness percentage. Havoc. All of that suggests we’re better, and we just played more consistently, but we didn’t exactly dominate them or anything. Fine. A win’s a win, and when you need them as badly as we do, we’ll take it.

Plays in Opponent Territory – Here’s the thing that held the team back from straight up rolling them. We didn’t have to punt at all – our first game with zero punts since the 2004 USC game; the less said about that the better – but only put up 37 points on 9 possessions and with plenty of opportunity for more, too. A fumble that laid there for a good three seconds? Three field goals? Ehh.

Points Per Trip Inside 40 – Amazingly, this was still one of our better performances of the year in this category. Team average coming into the game was 4.29 (80th in the country), and we allow 4.16 (46th in the country).

Havoc – Low Havoc was fine this week, since even if we were unable to get Nall in the backfield, doing so near the line of scrimmage, as we did on half his carries, was good enough. Plus, it put the onus on them to try to move the ball. Which they did with varying success.

VI. Special Teams (Exceeds Expectations)

Really good all around:

Plus return by Wharton of 19 yards on punt, a decent – but not noteworthy – game from Ashtyn Davis on kickoffs, while OSU got no plus value returns of their own.

No punts whatsoever, plus Semeniec does a helluva job as the kickoff specialist.

Oh, yeah. How about all-time leading scorer: ONE MATTHEW ANDERSON? Whatever seemed to be ailing him earlier in the year is now definitely out of the way. Good to getcha back, Matty. (Seems unlikely he’ll have this record broken for awhile, since he presided under some of the best scoring years of Cal football.)

VII. Outro.

We want the Axe.

What else did you want me to say?

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