The Novel: Arizona

I. Intro

The end of UFC 229 featured three arrests, two brawls, a champion who might not be back for awhile, another who got the absolute life squeezed out of him, and while the Bears managed a performance that wasn’t exactly uglier than that, they sure got damn close.

It is still three weeks short of Halloween, but the fashion in which this 24-17 defeat came was enough to put all our deepest fears put back into play. The quarterback situation still isn’t figured out. A bowl bid may no longer be a comfortable proposition, after dropping one of the few projectable road wins. And worst of all, giving UCLA their first win next week is an entirely conceivable notion at this point, as Cal was once again brutalized in the desert, committing four turnovers in a game that neither side seemed to want to win.

Losing in this fashion – with the Bears going interception, downs, interception, fumble, interception on their last five meaningful drives -- might be an easier trick to swallow than the results of any of the other recent trips to the Grand Canyon State, but that’s only because those other trips involved losing on a Hail Mary and by giving up 31 fourth quarter points.

I am not yet sure when the next trip to Arizona is (editor’s note: probably next year to Tempe), but if the last decade-plus has taught us anything, it’ll probably end in horrific fashion.

This one sure did.

II. Offense (Troll)

When it comes down to it, the name of the game is to score points – and not for the other team. So because of that, a 6.2 YPP performance gets wasted, as does McIlwain’s 422 yard game, in his fourth ever start.

It is easy to see why the coaches probably wanted McIlwain to start, because beyond his ability in short yardage and positive yards, last week, he flashed to pick up explosive yards too, while Garbers’ ability to provide a Bowers-like performance with higher upside all but disappeared against Oregon.

At the same time, it is easy to have foreseen the issues with that decision too. McIlwain committed four turnovers against the Ducks, and did the same against Arizona, including two pick-sixes that showed the hard limit of his ability to throw. Simply put, these two games have been enough to tell that McIlwain struggles wildly with hash to opposite sideline passes, which are long-winding and floaty for him, as well as in the middle of the field, where he will miss high and off-target into defenders. Whether these and his inability to put zip on throws to the outside are mechanical issues or not, I leave to someone smarter than me. But whether or not he’s starter material, we received what I believe to be a much clearer answer – the team as currently constructed absolutely cannot play from behind, give the ball up, or afford negative gains. Being good enough to avoid #3 most of the time doesn’t negate failing at #1 or #2.

What we have now is the worst of both worlds – a situation in which their logic, changing by the week, has resulted in neither guy being comfortable, or trusted with the reins of the offense.

To make matters worse, Baldwin did McIlwain no favors with 43 total dropbacks, not counting the ones he scrambled out of, and only ran a seemingly revived Patrick Laird 14 times for 54 yards. It has been a deeply disappointing year and a half for Baldwin and Tuiasosopo, and any grumbling you would like to have about both is beginning to be justified. (Wilcox isn’t immune to criticism either, but this is only the first unacceptable performance he’s turned in at the head of the program, whereas it is not their first).

They may not have the weapons they’d prefer, but at least on offense, they’re not exactly maximizing anything with the returning talent, either. There’s been three total weeks since Idaho State, including a bye, to prepare either of the QBs against one difficult opponent and one very gettable one, only to result in…well, *gestures wildly*

Moe Ways had himself a pretty good game in the place of Jordan Duncan, and he was probably the only one in the receiver group who did. Kanawai Noa managed to come open a handful of times, and Vic Wharton had some opportunities to get into space, but has been unable to break free at any point this season. Tonight wasn’t any different in that regard, although he continues to be absolute money at drawing penalty yardage, which we’ll take.

Laird caught all 8 targets, but as I’ve long mentioned, using him in this fashion is not an ideal or sustainable strategy, particularly against more athletic linebackers groups coming. He’s only so much of a mismatch, and shouldn’t be counted on so heavily in the pass game.

Still not enough touches for Jeremiah Hawkins. Don’t ask me, I don’t know.

No carries for Marcel Dancy. Again, don’t know.

You’d think that with the game threatening to come out of the balance that we’d lean hard on running the ball, but for whatever reason, they opted not to do that. It may well be a personnel issue -- Patrick Laird runs worse with McIlwain in the game, and McIlwain runs best with an empty backfield, which is where you saw both touchdowns come from.

Another week where I did not disagree with the decision to go for it on 4th and short, but hated the call. Didn’t end up hurting, thankfully.

I avoided talking about the offensive line for as long as I could. They didn’t block horribly in either phase, with only two sacks on 43 dropbacks, but they killed several drives with an inability to execute cleanly – and they here meant all of them, as every single one of the guys up front picked up a penalty. On top of that, there were more than a few plays made from McIlwain’s individual brilliance, when the Wildcats and particularly Colin Schooler had him dead to rights by coming unblocked, only to tackle air. Rough night for all of them, really.

III. Defense (Outstanding)

Picked off Khalil Tate and held him to under 200 yards.

Kept JJ Taylor in check.

Won all the matchups against the Wildcat receivers; none recorded even 50 yards.

Held their offense to 2.4, 4.6, and 4.7 YPP in the final three quarters.

Allowed zero points after first two drives.

Down 17-14 in fourth quarter:

Forced a fumble after offense blew 4th and short at goal line.

Forced a field goal miss after offense turned it over.

Force a final 3 and out after offense turned it over again.

Offense subsequently throws game-icing pick-six.

Loses starting safety to targeting on last play of the game.

IV. Unofficial Advanced Stats

[1] Another week out-explosiving a team, only to lose because of what happened in between explosive plays. We’re still unable to move the ball with consistency, and the run game is incredibly baffling at the moment for that reason.

[2] While McIlwain has been statistically the best runner in short yardage, it would be really good self scouting if we had anything to play off of in the weeks to come – he was stuffed twice this week already as teams know what to expect from this look, and as noted earlier, runs best from spread to run formations.

[3] Arizona had seven plays in the second half that took place in Cal territory. We still lost.

[4] I counted all the drives that reached the territory for both teams, even if they resulted in turnovers. For those of you keeping track at home, that means that coming out of the half, they got INT, Turnover on downs, fumble, and FG on our last four trips inside the 20, with another interception in our own half. Even just getting a field goal on some of these would have been enough.

[5] The lack of pass rush on the defense is quickly becoming an issue, although not so much so this week, since Khalil Tate has regressed wildly. We ran a lot more Malik Psalms than usual to try to get containment speed on the field, and as our workaround for this, and to his credit, he responded with a sack among his four tackles. Other than that, though, getting disruptiveness up front continues to be an issue.

Arizona never made a huge impact in terms of pass rush and didn’t dictate the line of scrimmage, but caused enough confusion to draw repeated penalties off our linemen, to go along with the interceptions and all. (There were nearly two more in addition.)

V. Special Teams (Poor)

Vic Wharton is becoming a liability at punt returner.

That is all there is in this space, as Cal made all the necessary kicks, did not return any others, and gave up a 16 yard punt return.

Former Cal kicker David Seawright wanted me to tell you that the first onside attempt – the one before Jaylinn Hawkins was thrown out for targeting – was actually perfect. They happened to come down with it, but the kick itself was exactly what you wanted, according to him.

VI. Win Matrix