Advertisement
football Edit

The Novel: Arizona

I. Intro

Like the continued existence of Santa Claus, or ghosts – it is nearly Halloween, after all – moral victories are fairly unpopular to believe in, and I won’t pretend that Saturday’s 45-44, 2OT defeat was one of those.

But I do believe in process losses – the kind of defeats that are nigh unavoidable and completely understandable under the conditions, yet offer the hope of something down the line.

When Sonny Dykes went 1-11, every defeat except one was by double digits, and even the 33-28 result to Arizona was only made possible courtesy of a TD with 1:42 to go. That team – the beginning of that era – showed flashes of potential behind then-freshman Jared Goff, but did not look like a future conference competitor due to general imbalance; and ultimately, they wouldn’t be. Dykes and company lasted four years in Berkeley, with his initial defensive staff all gone after two.

As much as we’d like a bowl this season, it is worth keeping in mind – especially as the math tightens up and Cal needs to steal another one against either UCLA, Stanford, or Colorado, plus hold serve against Oregon State – that 2017 was never about qualifying for post-season play. The projections suggested this rebuild was deeper than it currently is, that this program was further away from competing than it actually is.

And a loss like this one proves neither of these are true.

Something is being built here. Unevenly and slowly, to be sure, but something is being built.

We don’t know its contents, and we cannot see the ceiling yet either, but there is a shape and a foundation that is more visible and solid than it has been in a long time.

Teams that get outgained by 3.5 yards per play shouldn’t drag their superior opponents into double overtime, nor be within a hair’s breadth of winning the goddamn thing outright, nor come back from trailing by double digits. Certainly not teams that have just lost the soul of the defense earlier in the week, and certainly not teams that were just coming off an emotional, upset victory, either. All of this is new, even if the record book still reads that Cal fell to .500.

Nothing to be ashamed of.

Just part of the process. Check back for the final product. Coming soon.

II. Other Things I Thought…

I thought that they should have tried to win in regulation after burning both timeouts. That Khalil Tate had a complete brainfart on the following drive was great for bailing them out, but that was definitely unplanned and Cal was likely to lose the game on the back of that decision.

I thought that the call to go for two was correct – there were no more stops left in the Bears, they were at home, and to even score that second touchdown on offense required every last effort from an offense that had already played over 90 snaps.

The call itself, people may or may not disagree with, but the bottom line is that Ross had the throw open. If he hits the receiver in the opposite shoulder, we’re running through the streets of Berkeley still. It is what it is right now, man. Because he’s a first year starter with occasional bouts of inaccuracy, the throws that are easy are hard, and the throws that are hard become improbable. That was a fairly hard throw.

There was also an option for him to run. The Arizona DE on contain spun inside, leaving the rest of the field open. He did not take it.

Colorado is 1-4 in its last five, and the only win in that stretch was over an Oregon State that was replacing Gary Andersen. The game is at home. They just declared the quarterback competition open. Washington State – WASHINGTON STATE – ran for 194 on them at a 5.5 clip. Yeah, I’m thinking I like these odds, no matter what they are.

With us only four games from the end of the season, it’s pretty obvious we’d love to get the bowl bid locked up as soon as possible. That starts with Colorado and then Oregon State, back to back. Rest up into the bye, then...Big Game? [smirking]

III. Offense (Exceeds Expectations)

This was always going to be the worst kind of game for this offense. Arizona had a high chance of turning it into a track meet, and with what’s left depth wise, we couldn’t exactly afford to run with them. By two OT, we had nothing left, but that isn’t an indictment on the gameplan whatsoever – after initial adjustments, Baldwin kept ball control as much as possible and the team scored on damn near every drive in the second half. It was only that first half sequence – and ultimately, the failed red zone drive – that made the difference.

Welcome back, Patrick Laird. You may have noticed that the team was able to unlock a lot more with Laird out there – empty sets reappeared because of his threat as a receiver – and he ran effectively enough to keep the chains moving. (He’s lost 21 total yards on his 93 carries this year; Enwere has 34 on 86.) There is a limit to how much explosiveness we can generate with either remaining back, but the ability to consistently fall forward and avoid havoc is valuable enough for Ross. Sure, Zona’s also not as stiff of a defense as what we’ve faced earlier, but whatever.

Spoke a little about Ross Bowers earlier already, who took a slight step back from Washington State and had a handful of awful decisions, some missed throws of his own doing, yet still had the team in a position to win. He played better on third down than he has all season. He kept the ball even more often than he had in previous weeks. Those are still encouraging signs. I remain unsure of this team’s ceiling under him, but he’s starting to progress a little from that terrible stretch earlier in the year. (It’s important to remember how spoiled we are here in Berkeley at the QB position the last half decade.)

He’s gotta be better in the red zone, though. What’s that, like, two picks back there this year? Three?

For the most part, Wharton, Noa and Laird this week in the pass game. Man, they need some help – not because they’re playing badly themselves, but they would be able to do so much better if there was more space or attention taken away from them. Noa and Wharton would be much better fits as a team’s secondary option than their primary. Hopefully getting Demetris back next year will give that opportunity. (How weird is it that next year is likely Demetris’ last year?)

Two sacks. Five TFLs only. A 3.9 YPC, not counting sacks. That’s a solid night for the offensive line, I suppose, at least one now missing the starting left tackle. In another year, no one should be happy with averaging 3.9 YPC. For now, that’s quite alright.

If there’s any reason to really, really want a bowl in particular, it’s to help further develop those young playmakers who aren’t quite ready yet – Echols, Clark, Reinwald, Singleton, Duncan, etc. An extra 15 practices would be huge for just getting them reps and locking them into the playbook.

IV. Defense (Acceptable-)

There’s no denying that the numbers are ugly from this one. Arizona averaged 8.4 yards per play, 7.5 on rushes, and 16.6 on completions. They scored 31 points in regulation, punting only three times, missing a field goal on another, and turning it over for the only other time we stopped them. Two of those were self-inflicted errors.

The on-field was lowkey frightening too, against their third string back. Filling in for a now lost Devante Downs, Gerran Brown and Jordan Kunaszyk chased Tate and company around gamely, but with varying levels of success. At times their athleticism simply wouldn’t allow them to keep pace with the tiny dynamo – which is nothing to feel upset about, since he’s done that to the UCLAs of the world too.

Save for Cam Goode, we mostly lacked have the personnel to handle a team like this, after losing essentially our top tier of athletes at that position, because obviously Zeandae Johnson and Downs would have helped. We probably win this game if both of those guys are available.

And yet, you can’t point to this effort and really be all that upset. The breakdowns – and there were more than usual – were a function of some bad matchups, some limited personnel, and still, they produced enough stops to get to the end. It resembled a Sonny Dykes era game in terms of statistics, but felt really different. I don’t know if that makes sense at all.

Starting to feel like there’s some credence to that theory about us struggling against spread-to-run type teams. Luckily, Zona and Oregon are the only two in the conference.

But I do feel bad enough about Zona to project them as a loss for us in the future. 8-4, baby.

Arizona YPP by quarter: 12.3, 6, 10.6, 4.8 (9.1 1st half, 7.6 second half.)

We weren’t able to force Khalil Tate to throw much, which was unfortunate. When he did through, he did enough damage or the offense found him easy completions, often deep downfield.

Ashtyn Davis appears to have taken one of the safety starting jobs, and played really well in that spot. He’s flashing several times a game downhill and hauled in the freebie – hey, you still gotta catch em! – at the end to force OT. Add that to his special teams contributions on Saturday and you can give that guy the game ball.

Not the greatest game for the middle of the line, which was getting blown out up front, and again, resembled some of the stuff we saw in the ’14-16 era. Any time you see that group getting pushed back at the snap is a bad sign, and Arizona was extremely consistent in that area. It’s how you rush for 7 a pop. Generally not too bad coming in from the second level, but when we did miss, their explosives went for a lot, since nobody was catching any of the Zona playmakers in the open field.

The rest of the LB rotation that’s been forced into playing – Tongilava, A’noai – and Funches generally struggled, though, with noticeable speed differentials. Pretty safe to say Gerran Brown and Jordan Kunaszyk were the best of the bunch. The Beard played who they could have.

V. Unofficial Advanced Stats

Cal vs. Arizona Advanced Stats
Cal Arizona

Basics

Possessions

13

10

Yards per Play

4.9

8.4

Explosiveness

Explosiveness % (% or runs 10+ yards; passes 20+ yards)

5 (1 pass, 4 run) on 96 plays - 5.2%

12 (3 pass, 9 run) on 61 plays - 19.6%

3rd Downs

Conversions

13 of 19

4 of 10

Avg. Yards to go on 3rd down

5.4

7.4

Short Yardage

Power success rate (% of runs with 2 or fewer yards on 3rd and 4th down that were successful)

3 of 4 - McMorris, Enwere (2 of 3)

2 of 2 - GREEN, TATE

Field Position

Avg. Starting F.P. | Plays in opponent territory

Own 35 | 42 of 96 (43.7%)

Own 27 | 19 of 61 (31.1%)

Points per trip inside the 40 (in regulation)

15:00 1Q - 7 (Statue)

11:13 2Q - 0 (INT)

14:54 3Q - 7
7:23 3Q - 7

13:43 4Q - 7
5:03 4Q - 3

31 on 6 - 5.16

8:51 1Q - 7
1:54 1Q - 0

13:41 2Q - 7
4:40 2Q - 0

10:30 4Q - 3

17 on 5 - 3.4

Defense

Havoc (percentage of disruptive plays – TFL, picks, PDs, FFs, sacks – divided by total plays)

5 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PD - 7 on 61 plays (11.4%)

6 TFL,2 INT, 5 PD, 1 FF - 14 on 96 (14.5%)

Yards Per Play, Explosiveness, 3rd Down Conversions – When the YPP differential is this high, teams usually win going away by a lot. If the game still ends up close, it is often because of some other visible x-factor: third down conversions, turnovers, special teams/field position…and Saturday, it was third down. Despite Arizona’s success in the explosives department, they had fits where they simply couldn’t keep things moving along. That they were so explosive is no surprise – they’ve ranked near the top of the country in that department since inserting Tate into the starting lineup.

Rather, that we were so effective on third down was its own surprise. They came in at 106th in the country for this statistic – opponent third down percentage allowed – while we were 99th at actually converting them. So something had to give. It was them.

Having only 5.4 yards to go on 3rd down is rare so far this year. Speaks to the nature of consistently picking up yardage – even small yardage – early to get to manageable.

Trips Inside 40 – Another reason why you have to feel good with the offense – they cashed out almost every opportunity handed to them, which had been a general struggle all year. There was imagination, risk-taking, and Malik McMorris used as a pass threat. I don’t know what more you want. (Arizona’s other 14 points in regulation came from outside of the 40.)

Shout out to Zona’s missed opportunities keeping us in this one, though.

Havoc Rate – Against a spread to run team like Arizona, it’s hard to generate negative plays without incredible athletes, particularly up front. Because they’re also reading you and using misdirection, you can’t grab them in the backfield unless you’re consistently disruptive, and even then, they have a decent getaway percentage because of the personnel. Cal’s 11.4% is a shade lower than preferred, but again, understandable in the context of having lost Devante. Generally pretty happy with how we prevented Havoc on offense too, since one of those interceptions was entirely preventable.

VI. Special Teams (Exceeds Expectations)

Totally fine here.

All kicks made, including the 52 yarder. I won’t lie, I was more than a little bit nervous about that one.

A couple of plus returns by Vic Wharton and Ashtyn Davis.

No returns on the other side of value.

Punt average was a little lower than usual, which was also due to field position cramping.

VII. Closing

Colorado is a must win game.

Advertisement