Five Things: UCLA
Welcome back to what may be the final “Five Things” for 2017.
First, we have to do the job that no one wants to do, which is review the scorecard from last game:
1) Bryce Love – outside of one breakdown – any matchup that forces one of our backup linebackers against Love on the outside, gimpy ankle and all is an auto-loss for us – we did a decent job keeping him bottled. The high YPC number is almost entirely due to that run alone. It’s a WIN.
2) Chrystello – It ended up being Costello, not Chryst, but it didn’t matter. Part of the problem these last eight years is an inability to get pressure on the Stanford quarterback, almost all of whom have been aggressively mediocre players. (Josh Nunes, anyone?) Saturday, Costello merely became the latest annoyance, since he did just enough to keep Stanford in control of the ball and hit his third downs. LOSS.
3) Size – I am not sure I anticipated the Bears struggling this muchwith the size differential. We weren’t getting shredded, per se, but again, like with Costello above, even those tiny baby completions work against us, because Stanford gives not one damn about tempo. Their tight ends – none of those four (four!) – had a huge game, but Arcega-Whiteside continued to snake his way around for first downs, and that was enough. LOSS.
4) On schedule – This referred to keeping the ball moving with consistency, which we did – 5.9 YPP is one of our best marks all year against a team that isn’t even all that easy to attack – but we did not do enough with our six possessions to win the game. Okay, that much seems obvious, given the result and all, but what I mean more specifically is what I already wrote in this space last week:
“We don't have to average a ton of yards per play to win this one whatsoever -- just gotta keep the chains moving, and if that means scoring by way of 17 play drives, ala Colorado, then so be it. But wasting possessions, 3 and outs, etc, is an absolute no-no against this Cardinal team.”
The missed Matt Anderson field goal hurt, the decision to pooch punt away hurt, and the interception, obviously hurts. Those were also the only drives Cal did not score on. (The less said about the drives they did score on that were field goals, the better.) LOSS.
5) Rest – They got on Stanford right out of the gate and left it all out there. Particularly Laird, so it appears the bye week was well spent and well needed. WIN.
2 for 5. If they win even one more of these, the Axe would be back in Berkeley. Alas, that leaves them with the ever-uncomfortable job of fighting for their lives this season, in the little Pasadena House of Horrors.
1) Rosen – A few weeks ago, I was looking at this game and thinking he would not play, because there is no shame at all in protecting your future when the present is lost.
After last week’s standout performance against USC – 32 of 52 for 421, 3TDs: 1INT – that appears to definitely not be the case, so he goes back to being atop all the worries for Cal fan. If there’s one thing standing in the way of bowldom, #3 is it. Whatever issues you may have with him as a character, on the field, his arm talent – particularly his ability to put zip on the ball – is incredible, and we’ll have our hands full. Luckily, the UCLA run game is pretty bleh at 4.10 yards per carry, 79th in the nation, and you have to combine both Bolo Olorunfunmi and Soso Jamabo’s production to get to the level of one Patrick Laird.
2) Patrick Laird – Some fun numbers Laird should be looking at this week:
UCLA’s rushing defense gives up 5.69 YPC (128th out of 130 teams)
UCLA’s rushing defense gives up 288.73 yards per game (129th out of 130 teams)
UCLA’s rushing defense has a below average mark in rushing S&P+ (per play efficiency, normalized by opponent), allows a successful rush 47.5% of the time (reaching the mark of: 5 yards on 1st down, 7 yards on 2nd down, conversion on third down), and allows explosives at a higher rate than normal too.
Time to cook, Patty. #LairdFor200
3) Win on outside – Against Stanford, the presence of gamebreakers was one of the decisive factors in Cal losing, since it meant very little margin for error in terms of wasting plays or yardage. The receiving crew has another tough matchup again this week in that secondary led by Jaleel Wadood and Adarius Pickett – oh my god how are we still talking about these guys are they in their 10th year of college – but if they can’t once again get something going down the field, it’ll be a little bit tougher to get the points rolling toward a bowl.
(Given the above, though, this may not matter. #LairdFor200)
4) Roadie – Simply put, the Bears haven’t been very effective away from home, last week’s encouraging performance notwithstanding. They’ve been even less effective in Southern California generally, where they’ve lost every matchup against UCLA since 2009, and every matchup against USC since 2000. I don’t know why. Maybe it’s mystique. Maybe the field is coated in bear spray.
Whatever.
It’s gotta stop this week.
5) Playoffs – This is it for us. There is nothing to leave in the bag. They win, they get another game together as a team and as a community. I’m not hanging this season’s success entirely on the result of this one, but damn, it would feel really, really nice to get it.