Cal Football Countdown: 72 Days, Worst Case Scenarios, Part Two

The following scenario is speculative. It is in no way something we here at Cal Rivals are wishing for – let us repeat, in no way what we are wishing for -- and is merely a thought exercise into what we think might happen, should this specific scenario happen. (This, of course, is Cal after all.)

Plus, with it being the doldrums of the offseason – fall camp is so close and so far away – and us needing to continue filling out our preseason countdown, this can sometimes take us to weird, unexpected places. So, what happens if:

The defense regresses slightly?

Last season, the Cal defense ranked spectacularly in damn near every metric, so in the spirit of Bradley Cooper:

2018 --

S&P+ (per play effectiveness metric; strength of schedule adjusted) - 13th

isoPPP+ (preventing explosive plays and keeping opponents off schedule) - 6th

passing S&P+ (the above, but against the pass) - 10th

rushing S&P+ (the above, but against the run)- 29th

And that's before counting traditional metrics like yards per play, or considering the team's above average, but not elite Havoc rate. Just tremendous execution across the board last season, which, combined with all the returning personnel means that they enter the 2019 campaign with a legitimate chance at being the very best in school history.

But what if they don't? What if the projected offensive improvements across the board at, say UCLA, USC, and Utah prove to be legitimate? What if the defense, while still strong, falls back to 30th in the country? 40th, even, just because teams will have had a year to scout the personnel, and because players don't all get better at the same time like they do on paper? What happens then?

Let's say that the exact fall off is enough to lose one more game than last year. In this occurrence, where there's only a slight regression, making up that win and getting a successful season (which we'll define here as still managing bowl eligibility, ideally 7+ wins) in this scenario is still possible, but would depend on some currently unlikely happenings:

1) offset defensive regression with equal or better improvement on offense all around

You're basically counting on the mostly returning OL and the new wide receivers to bring out the best of Year 2 Chase Garbers (or Year 1 Devon Modster, which again, isn't a safe projection yet based on spring). They almost certainly won't be worse than last year, but who knows how much better that means? There's too many variables at play here and not enough data to project comfortably at least until week three of the season, which brings us to survival tactic number 2.

2) offset defensive regression with more aggressive game management

Here, we'll define "aggressive game management" as:

Going for it on 4th down more/punting less - Punting due to offensive incompetence, you can't really prevent. But punting in plus territory, or in somewhat manageable situations on your own field? Those, Cal had a few too many last year. I went through all 12 regular season games looking for punts that fit this description, and at least 6 stand out as arguable choices to go the other way:

- 4th and 2 at the UNC 38

- 4th and 6 at the Arizona 43

- 4th and 4 at the Cal 49 against USC

- 4th and 1 at the Cal 49 against Colorado

- 4th and 5 at the Cal 42 against Colorado

- 4th and 5 at the Stanford 49

That's six possessions that could have resulted in some points, and maybe even swung the entire fortune of one of these games. Now, did some of those decisions turn out in the team's favor? Did Cal win some of these games anyway? Yes -- but effective game theory values the decision- making process to arrive there, regardless of whether or not said decision turned out to be successful. If the defense gets worse at all, extracting more value out of each possession becomes even more critical.

Even less red zone field goals -- Roughly 1 out of 4 times Cal reached the red zone last year, they kicked a field goal, which isn't absurdly high -- that percentage was only in the 50s out of 120+ teams -- but if the margin grows even thinner for success, cutting these down even further (and there were a few of those 9 red zone FG tries that could have easily been "go for it" situations) has to be examined.

More trickeration -- By now, all of us are fairly familiar with the formations and looks Cal trots out. A lot of 3x1 trips but spread out, sometimes H-back in the backfield, tight end in line, etc. But actual trick plays? There haven't been too many. Might be worth looking into, if only to keep opposing teams honest. Get as wild as you want to, Beau. Jeremiah Hawkins in the backfield? Two QBs, ala the Saints? Whatever floats your boat.

Scenario likelihood: Low

Scenario survivability: Low