On Thursday at 8:00 PM PST on ESPN 2, Cal men’s basketball will take on the #13 Oregon Ducks in Eugene. Cal comes in at 13-16 overall and 7-9 in the Pac-12 while Oregon comes in at 22-7 overall and 11-5 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: On Saturday, Cal defeated the Utah Runnin’ Utes by a final score of 86-79 in overtime. Cal sophomore guard Matt Bradley led the way for the Golden Bears with 21 points and 5 rebounds while Utah sophomore forward Timmy Allen finished with 26 points and 8 rebounds.
RECAP: Cal pulls out overtime thriller over Utah on Senior Day
Matt Bradley picks up Pac-12 Player of the Week honors for the second time
On Oregon: The Ducks are led by senior guard Payton Pritchard, who is averaging 20.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game. Pritchard is a serious candidate for Pac-12 Player of the Year honors. Without him, this Ducks team wouldn’t be where they are.
The other two Ducks players scoring in double figures on average are junior guard Chris Duarte (12.9 points) and sophomore guard Will Richardson (10.9 points). Duarte will miss around two weeks due to a broken right pinky while Richardson’s status for Thursday night is up-in-the-air as he has been dealing with a sprained ankle that he suffered against Oregon State.
As a team, the Ducks average 75.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field, 38.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 69.3% shooting from the foul line. They average a +1.6 rebound margin, 14.4 assists, 7.8 steals, 3.1 blocks, and 11.9 turnovers per game. Their opponents average 67.1 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field, 32.5% shooting from 3-point range, and 72.7% shooting from the foul line.
The Ducks have proven to be vulnerable away from Eugene. They’re 5-5 on the road overall and 2-2 in neutral site games. That’s definitely something to keep in mind when you’re filling out your bracket later this month. However, they’ve been a perfect 15-0 at home and home is where this game will be.
Keys to the game: If Cal wants to hand the Ducks their first home loss of the season, the first thing they need to do is contain Pritchard. Even if Richardson is a go, the absence of Duarte means that Pritchard will really need to shoulder the load for the Ducks in this game. If he doesn’t have a monster outing, Oregon will have a tough time winning. Cal has to make containing Pritchard priority number one if they have any hope of pulling off the upset.
As a quick extension of this, in their first meeting earlier this year in Berkeley, Pritchard finished with 21 points, Duarte finished with 19 points, and Richardson finished with 15 points. Oregon won by five points (77-72). So, it is clear that if Oregon is to win, they’ll likely need a big outing from Pritchard.
Secondly, Cal needs to win the battle from beyond the arc. In their first meeting of the year, Cal shot 9-18 (50.0%) from beyond the arc while Oregon shot 10-18 (55.6%). In such a close game, that extra 3-pointer really helped Oregon stave off Cal. If Cal can be the team to get more threes to fall on a higher percentage, they just might sneak out with the win.
Finally, Cal needs to avoid long stretches without scoring. This has been a problem for Cal all year and especially on the road. We saw it at UCLA and at Washington most prominently. Cal will not win this game if they have 5+ minute stretches without scoring. It seems like an obvious key to the game, but it’s really true. If Cal is to get the win in Eugene, their offense needs to be in a consistent flow and finding ways to score on a routine basis. One thing that helps with this is when it isn’t all on Matt Bradley’s shoulders to score. If players like Andre Kelly, Paris Austin, Kareem South, and Grant Anticevich are able to get rolling, that should prevent the type of droughts we’ve been seeing.
