This was originally going to be a column about paying tribute to Gerald Alexander.

And then the school semester got under way and I fell behind, so all the tribute and goodbye stuff felt not quite appropriate anymore, given the lateness of the time. (Long story short: a - Gerald Alexander was absolutely tremendous and fulfilled beyond every last hope Cal could have had for a relative unknown at the time of hire; b - we were lucky to have him for as long as we did; c - thanks forever, Go Bears, Go Dolphins; d - and that I firmly believe that the best was yet to come with him, based on the status of the 2020 DBs and the '21ers whose attention we were beginning to draw; e - no one else could turn a fairly forgettable mid-2000s movie into an entire unit identity like he did.)

So now, this column is about coaches, and borrowed time -- although I suppose in a cosmic sense of speaking, all time is borrowed, really. Certainly never owned.

In a collegiate, gridiron application of that word though, these temporal loans become concrete and well defined from the moment they step on campus, because -- all coaches, whether they be named Saban, Parseghian, Bryant, or Hayes, will eventually leave. They all do. And if we're being honest with ourselves, then Wilcox is already on the clock, whether or not he wants to be. This is simply the nature of the current landscape in college football, where contracts are loose guidelines, not commitments. No one is more than a season or two away from being let go.

Trace's Aside:

Wilcox even knows as much, with the nature of college football coaching. The longest the Cal head coach has stayed in a role is four years in Boise as the defensive coordinator.

"In these jobs and roles, they're not traditionally 20-25 year runs," Wilcox said at Cal's February NSD media availability, "for a lot of reasons, we know that it's not."

Back to Nam

Before we go any further, I should be clear -- I am not writing this due to any inside knowledge of him wanting to leave at the moment. He's fresh off an extension, he's on the verge of having the program in its best place in a long time, and I'm not privy to any information that would indicate a desire to leave. Still, even though Wilcox seems to have fit himself nicely into the Cal culture and campus over the last three years, look around the conference landscape, and those three years make him a Pac-12 veteran. He has Cal in an extremely attractive place, so while Colorado wasn't the first potential caller for his services, they certainly won't be the last (Editor's Note: A reminder to everyone that a team showing interest in talking to someone doesn't mean it's reciprocal. It certainly didn't in this case).

Keeping all of that in mind, this column should be viewed as a thought exercise from the realist point of view -- that Justin Wilcox will one day no longer be the coach of Cal -- and to perform some thought experiments in such a potential situation.

Thought Experiment A: If a bigger school asked, how hard should Cal try to keep him?

Well, yes. I understand that people wish the Bears would be further along by now, but there are plenty of positive indicators that suggest he might have something going on here. Combine that with the promising offseason additions on staff -- something he has managed to replicated with multiple hires; another positive indicator -- and it is of fair importance they try to maintain the program as is right now. The traditional conference powers are once again in flux, with USC, UCLA, and even UW and Stanford undergoing some general question marks. There is value in stability as everyone else faces chaos.

(I made a similar argument in hoping that the Bears could find a way to make it work with Jake Spavital and Justin Wilcox, because I do believe the ingredients are coming together for something winning here, especially with the incoming offensive talent in 2020. You'd rather not switch staffs if you don't absolutely have to.)

Thought Experiment B: If a bigger school asked, how much should Cal be willing to pay?

Fact: if my research is correct, after the newest extension he signed in 2018 (announced pre Cheez-It, done some time in October of 2018), over the length of Justin Wilcox's contract, which runs through 2023, he'll make $3.25 million a year on average.

In 2019, the following coaches made over 3.25 million: Chris Petersen (now retired), David Shaw (possibly on the hot seat in the near future), Kyle Whittingham (deserved), Mike Leach (now gone), Chip Kelly (possibly on the hot seat), and Clay Helton ('nuff said.)

While Wilcox doesn't have the Bears at the consistent level of success that most of these programs enjoy, he's shown enough general aptitude for the difficulties of this job for Cal athletics to try to be competitive in any contract war, rather than just straight up letting him walk. I'd feel pretty comfortable offering up to 4 million to 4.25 million a year for him this offseason -- assuming the Bears win 8 games or so -- because Petersen earned 4.5 straight up, with his track record. The market isn't there for us to bid any higher. That being said, it's not my money. Do as you will, Megabucks Bear Backers!

Thought Experiment C: If Justin Wilcox leaves Cal, what kind of coach should we look for?

Given the last few hires here, it's clear that someone who has extensive West Coast experience and a deep coaching network is preferable. Sonny Dykes attempted to work around that by pulling from the JUCO and Southern areas, but it also made those players a bit more likely to play closer to home if things don't work out. When you recruit locally, such an issue is less pressing, although I don't have any hard data to back that up at the moment. (If you ask me again later, I might.)

Any prospective coach here is also likely to be an up-and-comer, more than an established veteran, partly due to budget issues, and partly due to the, shall we say, unique, nature of the bureaucracy and fanbase involved.

Finally, coaching searches also often involve swinging from one extreme to the other -- going from the offensive coach to the defensive one, as Cal did in 2017 -- but that doesn't seem particularly of need. You can win potentially playing any style of ball here.

Thought Experiment D: If Justin Wilcox leaves Cal, how will we know he's been successful?

Is the job better than when he got it? (Currently, yes.)

Is fan morale better than when he got it? (Currently, yes.)

Is the talent level better than when he got it? (Definitive yes, particularly on how that talent is distributed across the roster.)

If those things are still true when he leaves, then that's really all that matters. 4 years already makes Wilcox one of the elder statesmen in the conference, and Petersen, who he worked for, actually only ever made it to 8 at Boise. I think Cal would be extremely fortunate if Wilcox got that far. But I hope he does.