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The Replacement Novel: Oregon

Some of you were expecting Nam's Monday column, but since everyone's favorite analyst was at a wedding, I get the pleasure of writing the Monday novel.

I made the trip up to Eugene, my first trip to the Beaver state for anything other than a family reunion and a wedding ceremony that still scares me to this day (those were separate occasions). It was a trip to see how the Bears would handle the loss of one of their leaders, and ended up being one to see how they handled losing more of them in-game.

Right now, the Bears stand at 4-2, which is where I had them in the offseason (with losses to Oregon and Arizona State, funnily enough). Many will talk about the process in which they got there (4-0, with a quarterback rapidly improving, before a season-changing injury, growing pains with the backup, and an offensive line dropping bodies rapidly). The bye week could not have come at a better time.

First though, there's plenty to say about the city of Eugene, as a town built on Ducks, Nike Money, and the 1978 film Animal House provided a scenic backdrop for another inflection point in the 2019 season:

- Being in the Bay Area, you forget that since other place don't have earthquakes, they can build with bricks. Lots of bricks on the Oregon campus.

- The track and field stadium there is under construction, and it legitimately looks like the Olympic Stadium they constructed in Beijing for the 2008 Olympics

- Sabrina Ionescu got a reaction in Autzen Stadium that's on par with Stone Cold Steve Austin returning to help Mankind win the WWF title from the Rock in January of 1999.

- Cyrus Habibi-Likio, Oregon's running back who scored the go-ahead touchdown for the Ducks, had a similar reaction when he took out a fan who (drunkenly, I'd assume) ran out on the field and security was making little effort to corral.

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- Watching the crowd (and Oregon ILB Troy Dye) sing along to Shout was a treat.

- This Cal team has no fear

That last point is why, despite the two game losing streak the Bears are riding into the bye, I'm not budging off a preseason prediction of 8. Cal came into Autzen, and if you change a handful of plays, the Bears could be in an outwardly better place right now.

That said, the what-if game is dangerous to play and just isn't fruitful in breaking down this game. Cal is 4-2. That is the truth, and is probably where this team deserves to be, with their play. They fought against an Oregon team that is the most talented they'll play all year, made a potential top pick in the NFL draft look alright, not great, and got back to forcing turnovers. They also lost two linemen, had five penalties on the offensive line (four on true freshman McKade Mettauer) and couldn't run the ball aside from Devon Modster scrambles.

The year isn't over though. The Bears get Oregon State after the bye, a team that is eminently beatable. That still requires actually doing it, and this Cal team has multiple questions to answer during the bye.

Offense

So here's what Cal didn't have for most of their game Saturday:

- Starting QB Chase Garbers

- Backup RB Marcel Dancy

- Starting WR Kekoa Crawford

- Will Craig and Gentle Williams

- Mike Saffell (8 reps played) and Valentino Daltoso (33 reps played out of 67)

That's seven guys who have started a game on offense this year. The injury bug has hit the offensive line worse than ever, at least in my memory of Cal football, and it's a reminder at how much development has to happen with the backups.

A few notes:

- As many people pointed out, 3rd and short situations were rough, as the Bears went with a couple of stretch runs that got busted up by the Oregon front. I understand why they called them, as it's first, what they've worked on, secondly, one of Steve Greatwood's strengths in teaching, and third, probably an easier proposition to move a massive front horizontally than vertically. That said, it didn't work, and that's something that has to get picked up in self scout.

- There were a handful of slow developing play action plays as well, something that has happened more with Modster versus Garbers. That's a small scheme change from week to week.

- The touchdown pass to Chris Brown came on a textbook application of the scramble drill. One of the best throws this year. That and a 24-yarder to Jake Tonges were two lasers.

- Modster did have a handful of underthrows/overthrows that were costly. He recalled one to Jeremiah Hawkins (on a wheel/inside fade) that he overthrew in the postgame. He threw one behind Nikko Remigio, ending up in the hands of Troy Dye and setting up Oregon's final touchdown.

- Modster was, on a yards per attempt basis, better against pressure (7.4 yards per attempt when pressured, 4.3 when not) than not, which coincides with what he said in the press conference, that Oregon had some cover one looks that they took advantage of in the early going, then when they dropped 7 or 8, Modster struggled.

- The run game, taking out sacks, average 3.7 yards. The longest non-QB scramble was 8 yards.

- The QB slide, missed field goal was probably the turning point of the game. Get that, go up two scores, and feel a little more confident.

Defense

Here's how the Oregon run game went in terms of yards per carry:

5.4 in the first quarter, 1.8 in the second quarter, 3.5 in the third quarter, (if you take out the Herbert scramble) 3.3 in the fourth quarter.

The loss of CJ Verdell helped the Bears a bit here, as Travis Dye was easier to corral than the Ducks starter. Cal also got a couple fumbles off of Dye, one that the sophomore just dropped and another that Trey Turner popped out.

Tevin Paul went out at one point holding his arm. Ben Hawk Schrider came in for him, and since nobody really noticed, it meant that the Berkeley native had a solid outing.

Best game of the year for Ashtyn Davis, who made a fantastic play on his interception covering the slot, while also making a handful of tackles and solid hits. This game is why Davis is so highly thought of by NFL scouts, as he can be versatile and play slot coverage, hits like a truck. Also the best game so far for Kuony Deng, who tackled better than he did against Arizona State, piling up 12 stops as Evan Weaver had his first sub-10 tackle game in a year. Same goes for Luc Bequette, who quietly had his strongest performance of the season as a tackler and run stopper.

Herbert's numbers looked a lot like Modster's when looking at how he dealt with pressure versus no pressure, as Herbert averaged 5.2 yards per attempt without pressure, 9.5 with it. That tells you that the Cal coverage was as effective as it has been all season. Herbert finished with 6.5 yards per attempt in total, which while above Cal's averages, is a couple steps down from his usual excellence.

Jacob Breeland was a tough cover for the defense, and he's probably an NFL level TE as well.

It's not hard to say that this was the best defensive performance of the year. Forcing turnovers when needed and doing enough to tamp down a talented Oregon group (that returned a bunch of good wideouts) isn't easy.

Unofficial Stats 
Cal Oregon

Basics

Possessions

13

13 (not including kneeldown)

YPP

4.0

5.5

Explosiveness

Explosiveness %

(Passes of 15+ yds, rushes of 10+)

6 pass, 2 run on 64 plays, 12.5%

6 pass, 8 run on 74 plays, 18.9%

3rd Down

Conversions

6-17

5-13

Yards to Go

9.2

6.6

Short Yardage

Power Success Rate (Runs on 3rd and 4th and 1-2 that were successful)

0-2, (Brown on both)

2-4 (misses were Dye Fumble and stop before that)

Field Position

Avg Start

OWN 24

OWN 37

Pts Inside the 40

1Q, 9:07 - TD

2Q 12:57 FG Miss

2Q 4:15 Hailmary INT

4Q 7:14 FG Miss


7 in 4 drives - 1.75

1Q 13:02 INT

1Q 6:58 Fumble

2Q 13:34 Fumble

2Q 6:54 FG Miss

3Q 13:08 FG

3Q 2:39 TD

3Q 0:05 Downs

4Q 9:20 TD


17 points in 8 drives - 2.125

Defense

Havoc %

6 TFLs, 1 INT, 3 PBUs, 2 forced fumbles in 74 plays - 16.2%

7 TFLs, 2 INTs, 2 PBUs, 1 FF in 64 plays - 18.75%

Biggest takeaways from here:

- Field position battle was uneven at best

- Bend but don't break was taken to an absurd level on defense

- Cal still struggles on 3rd and short, and doesn't get those opportunities often (4-10 on 3rd and 9+, which is absurd)

- Run defense provided most of the TFLs in the Havoc stats

Special Teams

- Thomas missing from 45 was understandable. Missing from 32 straight on is not.

- Steven Coutts is still not himself. He's healed from a leg issue that gave Dario Longhetto time to play early on in the season. You'd figure that any issue with him is mental at this point.

- Coverage teams are a missed tackle away from giving up a return touchdown. Jevon Holland burned them on one on a punt return. When combined with a struggling punter, this is an issue that needs fixing in the bye week.

- Ashtyn Davis wasn't back to return a kick for this one, as the Hawkins' got the nod instead.

Final Thoughts

Here's what I'll leave you with:

- Cal is 4-2

- It has happened in the least predictable way possible

- The Pac-12 is still wide-open

There's time for the Bears to get healthy this week, for the coaches to do some self scouting, and for the reevaluation of this team to happen. We'll see how it shakes out this week.

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