The Novel: Washington

On Saturday, an intrepid band of Bears traveled northward, battled valiantly against the elements and a nearly three-hour rain delay, ultimately leaving happy, if not aching and worse for the wear.

And in other news, the Cal football team played a game too.

But what a game it was, as the Bears rallied for a 20-19 win that extended their streak over the Huskies to two, and when you consider that this year’s Bears were:

· Missing their starting left tackle, and then the guy who moved over from right guard to replace him

· Forced to finish the game with a walk-on at tackle, and a true freshman at right guard

· On the road

· Two touchdown underdogs coming in

· Averaging 3.5 yards per play in the first two quarters

· Had not scored an offensive TD against Washington in three seasons

· THEY HADN’T SCORED AN OFFENSIVE TD AGAINST WASHINGTON IN THREE SEASONS

…then you might also conclude that this upset was more unlikely, if not more remarkable than last year’s entirely.

Over the first three years of Justin Wilcox’s time here at Cal, we’ve offered many a phrase in this space to capture how consistently gritty the team has been – “occasionally outmanned, but never outplanned”, “the embodiment of #EarnIt”, “a coach fit to carry the legacy of the Unquitting, Undying Bear”.

Okay, fine. I lied. I’ve never once used those latter phrases until now, but that doesn’t make them any less applicable or fitting – and all of those qualities were impressively on display once again in Wilcox’s third – count it, third – upset over a top 15 team in that many seasons.

Look no further than the following scenario: your offense has struggled for multiple seasons, you’ve rallied to a 17-13 lead in the second half that is now 19-17, your halftime adjustments have now worn off, you’re 75 yards from the end zone with 2 minutes to go, and at least 50 from a field goal. Oh, and your passing offense has roughly 50 yards on the evening. What do you do?

Some coaches pass. Maybe they have to use a hail mary that ultimately falls incomplete. Maybe they have a trick play.

The Bears? They answer this question a little differently, scrounging up 74 yards by reaching into the grab bag for a couple of runs, a penalty, a possibly busted play, and when they absolutely had to have it, the comeback route of both Jordan Duncan and Chase Garbers’ lives, setting up a field goal from the 1 to end it.

The toughest way. The Wilcox way.

Anyone who stayed up long enough to watch it all, and certainly anyone who stayed in the stadium throughout the lightning delay will tell you that this was one for the memory books, even among unexpected victories.

Whether this win raises the ceiling for 2019 dramatically or not, I cannot confidently say, and I don’t think anyone should quite yet. The sample size remains too small, there are a couple of nagging issues that I’ll discuss below that are now figuring to be season-long bugaboos, and among those complicating factors is also this one: it’s possible that Washington’s status was a little bit overvalued, their crown to the Pac-12 North prematurely awarded.

The rest of the schedule this month – North Texas and Ole Miss – project to be much more winnable games, and if those break favorably, a fancy number should be accompanying the letters Cal for the second time in the Wilcox era before too long.

I don’t expect it to change his approach at all, though.

Wind, rain, thunder, hype, whatever. He’s gonna lick his lips and get back to work.

II. Offense.

By now, I think we’re all tired of the Chase Garbers discussion, so let’s just leave it at this: when he plays his best, he can be a serviceable Power Five starter, but a lot has to happen for him to play his best. And that’s fine. The Bears don’t need more than that. (I do believe he’s the best Cal’s got at the moment, even had Modster been available.)

Most nights, he only has to be decent, to make enough throws to allow the defense to help him win it.

This was not most nights – there was very little allowing him to play his best, and to make matters worse had to win. The defense did its job. And when the moment came, Chase did his. Again, a couple of promising, perfect throws. A couple more errors, but nothing as serious as last week. And a masterful command of the run game, whether it was from him or checking into the right looks.

The last two Cal QBs haven’t been the type of NFL-bound, prodigious talents that we’ve become accustomed to this century. They are, however, undeniably tough as hell. Miss you, Ross. Hope you’re well.

(There will come a day when he’s gotta throw for more than 250 yards, but the Cal gameplan will never and should never ask that of him directly. The longer they can go without being pushed to do that, the better it bodes for this year.)

I wrote it after the Davis game, and I’m writing it again: the offensive line has work to do. Despite the prodigious number of rushing yards again, this one remains true. But the position has flipped some, and the outlook is simultaneously both more and less rosy for the group. Will Craig went down and has no announcement when he might be back. Valentino Daltoso was his replacement and continues to be bothered by a sprained ankle. Henry Bazakas was the last one up at the position and tried his best – Cal played with many 1 and 2 TE sets to try to support him, but he was tested early and often against the Huskies. Expect teams to continue doing this, if he continues to play.

Last week, the strength of the line was in pass protection, and the Husky gameplan was to basically play an extra safety in the box, be aggressive bringing pressure, and dare the receivers to get free, particularly in the first half. Based on the numerous times Garbers had to run for his life, as well as the holding penalties, you can conclude the same as me about their efficacy, and even when the pressure was picked up, no one was open. The good news? That’s probably the worst it’s going to get, at least as far as conference defensive line fronts go. There’s still Utah and Oregon ahead, though.

In the run game, I made the case last week that they were allowing too much penetration and whiffed a couple of blocks, allowing Christopher Brown Jr. to get hit too early in the backfield to really be labeled as effective. On Saturday, despite PFF grading the line’s effort poorly (partially due to the three holding penalties early on), I’ll disagree – I felt they were at least much more effective, getting good enough push nearly immediately, even though the gameplan abandoned the run for most of the first half. Chris and Marcel Dancy are terrific backs. They don’t need much more than 2-3 yards before making something happen, but they can’t be contacted in the backfield as often as they were before. This week, much better.

However, in the second half, when Baldwin made the adjustment of using more misdirection runs, played with some of the handoff points, and kept up consistent use of late shifts to re-dictate strong and weak sides with the playclock winding down, did things really take off. Not only was this the first time in nearly three seasons there were real, visible offensive adjustments, but they worked by giving UW defenders an extra thing to think about, and in turn, slowed some of their aggression because they had to process what they were seeing.

Cannot say enough about Dancy, who is probably too small for full time duties and still developing as a pass protector, but the best at making something happen when things break down. He’ll play a lot more going forward.

UW’s plan early was to play single high safety, man up on the outside, and be aggressive in the box, daring the receivers to make plays and get free. They’ll also have some of the best personnel Cal will face this season in executing that scheme, so it should get better.

III. The Defense

A haiku for Evan Weaver

Violence and grit

prophesized the win last week

YOU DUB SACKED AGAIN

Just like they have so many times before, they answered the bell, and they kept on answering it – every time UW drove, they would make just enough plays. They prevented big gains, kept everything in front of them, and just kept rallying to the ball.

Like with the offensive line, I think what we saw against Davis is going to hold somewhat true on the defensive line – namely, that they will be a little bit exploitable without a true nose tackle. Now, Cal will play with who we have and perhaps their performance will pick up against weaker offensive lines (plus the combination of JOHNSON!) improving over the season, but UW had their most success trying to play downhill attacking with inside zone – they converted 7 of 9 short rushing attempts on 3rd or 4th down, if you need another stat here. They moved the ball consistently, but not explosively on the ground with that strategy, but for some reason, insisted on stretching plays outside where the gang tackling in the Cal back seven, as well as Evan Weaver, would simply swallow up the ball carrier. I expect both of these trends to continue – future teams will find some consistent success pushing the middle of the field, but not break any large runs because the tackling is so good after. Let them hit singles. At least they’re not homers.

If they got anyone up to the second level against Deng, it was usually a bit tough for him to shed that block too. From the eye test: he struggled a lot with the physicality from UW, which is something I expect to write often this year because it is what it is, and then again in some middle of the field coverage. (From the analytics: before regrades, Deng was the lowest rated player on PFF for Saturday’s game, with them assigning a lot of the catch from the tight ends to him.) With Deng and Goode both, I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. I hope both return, because all the conditions for their success should all taken care of next year.

Traveon Beck was jobbed (on his pass interference call). We all know it.

UW underutilized Hunter Bryant, and if Cal is worried about anything, it’s still those big TE types that thankfully few teams but our hated rivals down south really have.

JOHNSON!’s snap count was 30 this week and he continues to grade pretty well. If Siu and Maldonado do not return – and it’s easier to assume they don’t – he’ll still end up playing. The best is ahead with him.

Takers were back to taking this week, both literal and in essence. Ashtyn Davis was much more of a force this week as well, although he got beat on a good move by Salvon Ahmed for the touchdown. That’s just gonna happen sometimes.

The secondary has not allowed a passing touchdown for three games now. If you ever see them in the stadium, you’ll appreciate their intelligence even more, because they always know where to be and how to fill. UW couldn’t do very much on the edges with the little screen games and what not they like to play because the DBs were so good at funneling people back into Evan Weaver.

I disagree that Jacob Eason did not look bothered. There was no room downfield a lot of time, so he had to check down into the flats, where we’d be swarming the ball carriers, and he threw a couple of plays that were open right off-target. (Andre Baccelia, baby!)

A two play sequence to illustrate: DeRuyter and company showed Eason 6 man blitz at LOS, then went to drop 8; on the next play, the Bears sent late safety blitz with Ashtyn Davis. He never looked comfortable passing the ball at all, and when he did, well, it beat letting them run it.

IV. Unofficial Advanced Stats

UW blew it. They had a 10th power situation to go from the 1 yard line before the penalty, scored barely even a field goal on each of their many, many trips inside the 40, and spent a majority of the first half inside Cal territory. The Bears had only 4 chances, but did just enough. Same game script as last year.

They’ll have to get better on 1st and second down again against other teams though.

Havoc Rate – All four UW TFLs were in the first half, and they had nothing disruptive in the second, when Cal started to really vary up the run game. Clearest evidence that the Bears made critical halftime adjustments (they nearly doubled their YPP in the second half).

V. Special Teams

Flawless game from Thomas, who could have missed 15 field goals – as long as he hit the game winning one, we’re good.

Another coverage bust on kick returns and punt returns this week, which is once again suboptimal.

Punting was poor. Trace says he’s not sure when Coutts will be back healthy, but they didn’t quite help get it done.

VI. WIN MATRIX IS BACK

DID: UW, UC Davis

SHOULD: Oregon State, North Texas, ASU (promoted from Could), Ole Miss, UCLA

COULD: WSU, Stanford

LOOKS HARD: Oregon, USC (demoted from could), Utah