The Novel: Utah

Last week, I wrote that blowout columns were easy – since the causes are often easy to identify, and not much is likely to change about the game narrative, you can get your work done early, like I am right now at…

*checks watch*

8:45 PM Pacific, which is halftime.

Of course, I just wasn’t expecting to have to write one of them this soon. After all, the Bears are often game enough on defense to hold teams in check, having built their name on dragging dominant offenses through four quarters of trench warfare. Sometimes they fall short, and sometimes that’s enough to pull it out, but that attrition has become a trademark of Justin Wilcox’s time here at Berkeley.

You can beat them. You will rarely ever blow them out.

As you may have noticed by now, that did not brand did not travel to Salt Lake City this week. Despite the Utes starting a half-hobbled Tyler Huntley, they didn’t seem slightly inconvenienced whatsoever, a trend that began with the 99 yard march to go up 7-0, and continued on basically every possession following.

The easiest interpretation of the game would be to label it as uncharacteristic, with a third string quarterback making his first start in some of the most suboptimal conditions you can imagine.

Tilt the looking glass another way, though, and you can start to see some trouble too. A lot of the program’s struggles thus far can be rationalized somewhat – injuries, natural attrition, what have you – so losing to Oregon State in the fashion they did last week was probably the first truly indefensible moment for the Wilcox regime. Now, there is a second; a trend of the Bears squandering away the hard wins piled up in nonconference play every single year now:

2017: 3-0 to 3-3 (USC, Oregon, Washington)

2018: 3-0 to 3-3 (Oregon, Arizona, UCLA)

2019: 4-0 to 4-4 (ASU, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah)

But that is not to say that the Bears should have stopped this streak by beating an opponent as three touchdown underdogs.

They were, however, expected to at least compete – as is the mantra -- and even as someone who despises armchair psychology, it’s hard not to spot the flickers of poor body language that sprung up late in this one, and harder still to write off being outclassed from the jump.

Not being able to move the ball whatsoever is not exactly new. Not being able to tackle, not being able to run with the Utah players in space, not being able to get any pressure to faze a one-legged Huntley – those, however, were and that is unacceptable for a program that prides itself on such things.

There comes a time in every single coach’s tenure where the fans begin to tip from one side to the other, regardless of how successful. But I suppose you should first hear it in Bum Phillips’ natural cadence, rather than mine: “There's two kinds of coaches, them that's fired and them that's gonna be fired.”

I don’t believe Coach Wilcox is in headed to the first group yet – nor should he be, for some of the reasons outlined above -- but those are only my beliefs alone as your columnist. I’d be willfully ignorant if I didn’t also acknowledge that between the last two weeks, and the general trajectory to his track record so far, there are those who have seen enough to begin fleeing, many of whom read this very column and frequent our boards.

As a result, these next two months feel particularly pivotal in Wilcox’s future, who will need to stem some rising discontentment in the fanbase one way or another, especially now that it is overwhelmingly possible that these Bears could miss a bowl game in year 3, and it’s not like Saturday gave any more confidence that December football is a sure thing. Worse still, they could also conceivably lose out, sliding into the offseason at 4-8, rudderless even before facing down the reality of rebuilding the offense again.

Those are the horrors that might come, though.

The Bears will have their hands full during the bye trying again to fix the ones in front of them already.

II. Offense

Even when Brasch looked decent to start the game – he throws a beautiful ball with zip – I tried to remind myself to stay patient, because the real game was what would happen when we got off the opening script, and Utah had opportunities to make adjustments.

Lo and behold, they adjusted.

The record low for Wilcox-era YPP remains 1.8, against Washington in 2017, a game I really don’t remember much of because it too, got out of hand early and I was busy texting/courting a young woman I am still dating now. Tonight, they recorded a 1.9.

If your YPP isn’t academically eligible, you should be able to file for some sort of offensive probation.Zach Moss nearly outgained the entire offense on his 69 yard catch and run. The entire offense.

It’s a shame the score got out of hand so early, so quickly. Christopher Brown Jr. looked the healthiest he’s been in weeks. His stat line didn’t look as bad as it felt in game, though.

From a gamecalling standpoint, this was at least one where they played aggressively, and somewhat creatively, whether or not it was dictated by desperation or personnel. You had Ashtyn Davis on the field on offense (the more minutiae oriented of you might have remembered Utah doing the same for a key touchdown in the 2015 Cal-Utah game). You had some deep shots. You protected Spencer Brasch most of the time. You had some screens – a few sniffed out, a few dropped. Notable use of 5 wide to try to attack the Utah DBs, who were gettable against USC, but not really so much anywhere else. What I’m trying to say is that there was at least some semblance of a plan or evidence of them trying some things, and they got outclassed physically and in the execution. Dancy/Brown wildcat, too.

Why you played it ultraconservatively with Modster, though, I’ll never know. You also had the unplanned QB scramble still be one of the most effective plays on the evening, so realistically, it’s kind of a wash. Still, fair’s fair. I’d say it was one of the better efforts from Baldwin, all things considered. I know that doesn’t make a lot of sense considering the results, but Utah’s been destroying teams on offense this year.

The line got whupped up front for a lot of the game, but only gave up one sack due to the game planning.

What does it say that we watched this and I wasn’t fazed by the level of performance? I mean, granted, I expected exactly this to some degree, but even being shut out for the first time in 20 years doesn’t really cause me to blink. Perhaps because I don’t put a lot of stock in that stuff and I’m surprised it hadn’t happened earlier already.

III. Defense

Defensively…it was the first bad sign when Weaver left Moss – his man in coverage – to close out on Huntley, and it got worse when they ran power in his direction, blocked him, and gave Moss the daylight to score. That should have been enough of a signal that it was going to be a long evening, but it got worse. Weaver, who, through heart, grit, and general effort looked a bit exposed in ways he so rarely is. He lost some strength on strength battles against the Utah linemen, then missed a few tackles in space too.

Utah did a masterful job getting the ball out of Huntley’s hands quickly for RAC opportunities, and blocking up against Cal’s pressure. Even when Cal sent 5 men, he wasn’t really hurried too often behind good blocking – in both the run and pass, really -- and Utah’s athletes were extremely effective in space. A lot of credit should go to them, because they were running free in ways we haven’t seen too often the last three years.

The other major problem was that Cal’s edge players were consistently beaten, regardless of who they rotated in there. The Utes were excellent blocking them out and allowing the skill guys to get to the corner, against Goode, Hawk Shrider – who started in place of Paul – and even at the first level, on the likes of Zeandae Johnson and Lone Toailoa.

Then there were the breakdowns in coverage, which didn’t happen deep, but were unopportune on this side of the ball when they already couldn’t afford any whatsoever. (It’s one thing to ask a defense to hold a team, but right now, with the offense playing at this level, allowing any points whatsoever over 10 feels like the end.) A couple of third downs on drags. A couple of free holes given in the zone. The rare glaring mistake: a truly fooled secondary on play action, allowing for the game’s third second touchdown, which essentially ended it.

Even Tattersall did look good on a couple plays late. Yes, the game was already well in hand, but you have to keep scouting even when the backups are in. (Daniel Scott and Chigozie Anusiem both played, for example, as did JH Tevis. All of them could be starters next year, and it’s because of watching defenders during blowouts that I discovered Devante Downs.)

A side note: Moss reminds me of Donnel Pumphrey, the last back I can recall who simply made Cal defenders look silly in space.

IV. Unofficial Advanced Stats

YPP – We already discussed this one, so let’s move on.

Average Yards to go on 3rd down – Bryan D Fischer and a few other folks noted that only half of Cal’s plays gained positive yardage, and only 7 of them were TFLs, which meant a whole lot of incompletes and no gains. 9.3 yards, as you may have realized, means that that they spent the first two downs barely getting three feet.

Short yardage – They got a couple of stops, but Utah was extremely confident in their close quarters package, using Shelley, but also the threat of the jet sweep too. Went for it a couple of times to stay aggressive, including at the end of the first half to put the game on ice.

Points per trip inside the 40 – Cal never even made it into Utah scoring position. Their best drive of the night ended at the Utah 41.

V. Special Teams:

It says a lot that the punting was the only area I didn’t have any problems with.

Happy Halloween, I suppose.