The Novel: USC

For most of the time in which I’ve been around Cal – which, granted, hasn’t been that long in the grand scheme of things -- the USC game has always meant a certain inevitability, in which everything that can go wrong, does go wrong.

In this edition of losing to USC, though, “everything went wrong” happened to also mean an injury to the first-string quarterback, who was making a triumphant return from a previous injury, plus the one to the first-string running back, who left after taking a brutal hit of his own, plus an inability to maintain some early momentum, and then some.

But when I say “everything went wrong” on Saturday, I mean everything went wrong, including the thing we didn’t see coming: a systematic and complete failure of the bedrock the Wilcox era has been built on -- the defense, and particularly the OG Takers, who had a final home game unfitting of their legacy here.

When Elijah Hicks fell down the first time, we thought that it might have just been an accident, a blip. Happens.

It ended up being a precursor instead, with every defensive back suffering one lowlight or another at the hands of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman, and Drake London, who helped Slovis throw for 4 TDs on a secondary that had gave up 9 all year coming into the game.

So…yeah. The Bears have lost to USC again, in a way that was somehow both predictable and unpredictable, but also in a way that leaves me with very little to add or weave a narrative about except that I hate these guys and I’ll be back again next year to watch us try again, even when it feels like we are always facing a matchup against Sisyphean Conquest.

The only good – a word here I am using incredibly generously -- that comes out of that is knowing that this loss doesn’t have too many long term implications; there are still two meaningful games left to play, both of which are eminently more winnable on paper than this one was. Winning the Axe – against what is the weakest Stanford team in a decade -- could at least make eligibility for a low-tier bowl seem sweet. Qualifying for postseason play with an ugly slugfest in front of an apathetic Rose Bowl crowd, much less satisfying.

Knowing the way things have arced downward this year, though, you’re probably kind of expecting to get a 3-point win over UCLA – if you’re expecting anything at all -- rather than the catharsis of a celebratory field-storming against Stanford, which is a result many would take begrudgingly, but not happily.

Begrudgingly, but not happily: The 2010 to 2019 Cal football story.

II. Various Observations

At halftime, when the Bears trailed only by a score, I looked at the yards per play disparity to note that they were lucky it was even that close – and indeed, despite averaging over six yards a snap, SC managed to go 3 and out twice, and then had to settle for a field goal on a different drive.

They would then go on to average nearly 9 YPP in the final two quarters. So if you’re wondering why it got worse, well. There you go. (This is a rarity in the Wilcox era as well – being blown out in the second half, or out-adjusted on the defensive side of the ball.)

Remember how we said last week that we’d prefer for some decisiveness in the decisionmaking around Baldwin’s future, with a series of definitive performances on offense in either direction? I think we can kind of file this one in the other direction, and move the dial back the other way a bit. Wazzu felt somewhat promising just because they beat up on a bad defense, which they weren’t even able to do earlier in the year. This…was somewhat of a return to norm (especially because we averaged around these YPP/efficiency numbers in beating SC last year).

They’re not firing Justin Wilcox after this year, people. You can tell there are segments of the fanbase starting to leave ship but he’s safe. (I also, once again, am not one of these people.)

If you caught the Utah-USC Friday night game a few weeks ago, you saw the same script unfolding in this one, albeit with Kedon Slovis in Matt Fink's stead: an undaunted and unrattled, generic USC QB lofts it up deep to a receiver, who may or may not be covered, but uses their physical advantages to turn 50/50 balls into 80/20 balls, eventually scoring at will. If it happened to a secondary that was essentially our peers, it could certainly happen to us, and it did.

I’m not the first person to point this out, but what makes this strategy scary is that the Air Raid at USC puts their prodigiously talented athletes in positions to win. If their guys are better than your guys, then they’ll take their chances. It being SC, most of the time, their guys are better than your guys. It’s simple. It’s brilliant. It’s sustainable. And it’s bad news for the rest of the conference when they get a real head coach.

And also, it pains me to suggest this, but I really feel like this was just being out-talented across the board. USC's offense had what, the 7? best players on Saturday? And that's not to imply Davis or Hawkins or Weaver would normally be that low, but on *Saturday*, they were all outplayed, with this type of game once again not favoring Weaver. Tough to win when that is the case. The less said about SC’s defense ranking in versus Cal’s offense, the better. Football is not a hard game sometimes.

After halftime, the loudest cheers in my section came during the brief moment we were shown on the Jumbotron. The second loudest cheers came when we picked the right BART car in the stadium graphic package. It was that kind of night.

A game like this also kinda makes you realize how much had to go right for the Bears to win last year down in the Coliseum.

I wish the program had done a better job making it known that Bryce Turner and Eric Stevens would both be honored on Saturday.

Get well soon, Evan Tattersall.

III. Other Offensive Observations

DeShawn Collins was just about the only highlight on offense, posting up a median carry of 5 and never taking a loss on the day. He’s been really good in place of Marcel Dancy, who just does not look like he did early this season. Unfortunately, Collins has already used his redshirt year, so 2020 will mean he is a senior.

In an ideal world, they would have been able to run the ball more, but obviously losing Chris changed that plan early. (They also would have been able to force SC to run the ball more too, but that’s for later.)

I do not think it would have meant the Bears won with Modster at QB1 the whole time, but at least Garbers would still be possibly playable next week. Right now, I would be extremely surprised to see him back for Stanford.

Kekoa Crawford didn’t play again, which has been a big loss most of the year. He’s been the only real offensive differencemaker on the outside.

At the beginning of the game, Nikko Remigio’s drops loomed rather large. Losing in the fashion the Bears did kinda lets him off the hook, though. (There were at least three in the first half alone.)

Otherwise though, regardless of the # of receivers or who they ran out there, no one was really open, as the Bears completed zero of 4 passes in the 20+ range, and only threw twice in the 10-19 yard range. Everything was kept in front of them. Per PFF, SC only “pressured” Modster 7 times, and sacked him on 3 of those, which tells you they were content to sit back and play coverage; only blitzing 4 times too.

IV. Other Defensive Observations

The average USC third down was 9.7 yards. And it did not matter to them one bit.

The Bears got pressure sometimes, using a lot of the stuff we saw last week versus Gordon, sacking Slovis three times – PFF counted them with 15! Hurries on 35 attempts -- but he was still able to make good decision on the run and get the ball downfield to his receivers, which was something we feared pre-game in Five Things.

Slovis under pressure (PFF): 11 of 13, 145 yards, 1TD

Slovis blitzed (PFF): 8 of 10, 91 yards, 1TD

Sometimes, you just tip your cap.

There’s a part of me that thinks more of the issues were rooted in personnel just as much as planning. In quite a few instances – such as the aforementioned Pittman TDs – there are guys in position who slipped in making plays, which has rarely been the case in their careers to date, and you get the feeling that maybe that’s just them bumping up against their athletic ceilings. If there is some silver lining to this, the next DB class is the highest ranked group that Wilcox has brought in, and it’s possible that they will be better suited athletically in the future too.

SC averaged 3.3 yards per carry after taking out sacks. Had Cal been able to force them to run more, the game might have been significantly more manageable. (Ironically, conventional football wisdom is to force long downs and…well…*gestures*)

For Aaron Maldonado and Tevin Paul, two guys whose seasons haven’t been as strong as hoped for, Saturday was nice. Both picked up sacks.

V. Unofficial Advanced Stats

Look, any way you slice it, this was ugly.

So, some other things that are not on the stat sheet:

Cal did not reach USC territory in the third quarter, and had only two snaps in USC territory in the 4th quarter.

Since I began charting these stats, I’ve recorded almost every Cal game, and this was the worst game of the Wilcox era since 2017 in terms of explosives, when they faced Khalil Tate for the first time and allowed 19.1%.

VI. Special Teams

Nice punt return by Davis, albeit a risky decision to hurdle. (One which got him injured and unable to finish the game on defense)

Punting has once again been a struggle, as it was most of the year.

1 of 1 for Thomas.