The Novel: UC Davis

I. Intro

The last time many of us saw the Cal Bears in action, they were fully amid the holiday spirit, gifting possession after possession to TCU on their way to a 10-7 loss in the Cheez-It Bowl, a performance people are now more eager to meme than ever actually re-watch.

Imagine, then, the collective disbelief so many of us felt at Christmas coming early again this year. A fumble on the opening kickoff. An interception on a miscommunication. Another fumble. A 10-point lead to the visitors. Those were just in the first half of this game, after a months-long insistence that things were improving on offense.

Then, another fumble, and another near interception, just to keep it interesting when the Bears finally began to pull away – and I know at least one of you are wondering if I missed a turnover in this recap. (I did not.)

Despite covering the spread exactly – Cal was a 13 to 14 point favorite at most places this week – the 27-13 victory over #5 FCS UC Davis wasn’t the kind of inspiring performance many teams hope for in their opener, nor did it do very much to make anyone feel differently about the season projections, which are mostly hovering at the 5 to 7 win range.

That is not to say that there were no improvements from last year’s team shown in this game. Chase Garbers and the rest of the receivers showed a vertical dimension not present at any point in 2018. Nikko Remigio breathed some life into a punt return game that’s not had any in recent years. For God’s sake, BRETT JOHNSON! (That’s it. That’s the sentence.)

But if those improvements continue to be negated by little dips in performance elsewhere, like they were on Saturday, you will eventually get a Cal team that kind of resembles the last one: scrappy, tough, and competitive in any given match-up, a headache for all opponents on the way to a low-tier bowl.

It is fine to acknowledge that UC Davis is a pretty good team, and that they might have put a scare into many an FCS opponent this Saturday, not just us. But you look as far north as you can in college football, up to Seattle, and find that they absolutely decimated FCS #3 Eastern Washington, the gap between starts to feel wider than the flight up there will be.

That’s a long six days away, though, and a thing to talk about in another column this week. They can certainly upset the Huskies. They already have before. Any worry that comes out of this one is mostly thinking about the season outlook – because fair or not, Saturday is the only data point we have for analysis, while simultaneously understanding there is a whole lot of it left to go.

Plus, there’s the really important part of it all. The Bears are 1-0.

That’s better than what they can say in Westwood, Knoxville, or Columbia, Missouri.

Aside: an astute reader caught that I typed Colombia by accident the first time. I even double checked on Google to make sure I got the right town, but managed to forget I might have spelled it wrong.

II. The Offense

Give them credit where it is due. Last year, even with a clean pocket, there was no threat of doing damage downfield. So when Chase Garbers hit Kekoa Crawford on a crosser for that first touchdown, that was progress.

Also progress: Chase looked much more confident running the ball. Probably should have ran even more often than he did.

Not progress: too many makeable throws that were off-line, late, high, checkdowns, not all of which were Garbers’ fault, but are cumulatively contributing to the one quarter or so per game Cal spent short-circuiting on offense, something that they can’t afford against better teams. This remains similar to last year.

Also not progress: ball security. Chalking up the interception to a miscommunication is fine. Fumbling because he did not feel the pressure from behind, then not finding the right mechanics to throw accurately on the run…those are more indicative of issues, and most importantly, unacceptable for the game management role we would like him to play.

Chase was much better to middle of the field – particularly from line of scrimmage to intermediate (up to 20 yards), totaling 13 of 18 for 175 between the hashes.

It’s everywhere else that was an issue. On throws not between the numbers, PFF charted him at:

Left (all depths): 1 of 3, 21 yards, INT

Right (all depths): 2 of 5, 39 yards, TD

For the record, Chase started: 2 of 6, 5 yards, INT, and went 14 of 21, 233 yards (238 total), 2 TD after all that.

From Five Things this week: “As he goes, so too, do the Bears, and all they really need him to go is a cool, semi-efficient 20-of-33, 250 yards, 2 TD performance each week.” Take out the two turnovers, and you’re basically there. No, I won’t tell you the winning lottery numbers.

And despite all that, they even averaged a coolly efficient 6.0 yards per play, imposing their will down the stretch, while UC Davis had a solid GPA-YPP average of 3.9, a margin that would have resulted in a 20+ point win on a turnover free afternoon.

Back to progress: Christopher Brown Jr was an absolute revelation and looked more explosive in this game than the never-was-fully-healthy Patrick Laird did at any point in 2018. That being said, please, please, please rotate in Marcel Dancy more often. As terrific as Brown was after contact, he cannot be taking 35 touches a week. No one should be, especially when Dancy looked good again in limited action, including forcing a disgusting missed tackle behind the line of scrimmage.

PFF did not love the run blocking effort considering the actual production on the afternoon. My guess as to why they rated so low:

1) Their analysts assigned the credit for a lot of the yards to Chris Brown breaking tackles and rolling through contact, which happened on quite a few plays. Most of Chris’ yards – 168 of 198 came after contact, and 22 of Dancy’s 32 were the same. That means that a good number of the blocks weren’t producing yardages themselves, something that will have to improve most urgently against the Huskies.

2) Penalties, which killed a handful of good gains for the Bears.

Of note, team had most success rushing the B gap between Cindric (who had the 4th highest offensive PFF among starters; #1 in pass block) and Craig (who had the 2nd highest offensive PFF among starting linemen), despite not dominating in grades for actual run blocking. Not sure what to make of that one.

Quickly on the receivers, who are collectively more explosive than last year’s group: Nikko Remigio didn’t get a ton of opportunities, but I liked what he showed after the catch and on special teams, while Jordan Duncan had a pretty tough afternoon. Crawford was productive. Jeremiah Hawkins continues to be an adventure.

Mac Castles didn’t haul in either of his targets on Saturday, with one being a catchable drop, and the other just slightly off-target. He won’t be written out of the rotation that quickly, since there aren’t a ton of bodies at the position, but it was pleasantly surprising how much more effective Reinwald and Jake Tonges both were out of 2 TE sets. (That sound you hear is definitely not me shredding my Mac Castles receipts.)

III. The Defense

Most of the time, holding a team to 3.9 yards per play and 13 points – 7 of which came on a short field – would be cause for celebration. Not here.

Not for this group, which knows they could be the best in school history.

There were a couple of bad indicators that they can get away with against UC Davis, but not in the heart of conference play, beginning with the defensive line. Nose tackle had been a point of worry entering the season, and while I felt that Bequette would fill in just fine for the missing Siu Fuimaono and Aaron Maldonado, what I saw has me thinking that some shuffling is in order.

Bequette, despite some flashy production, graded out pretty poorly on PFF for the whole game. It is my guess, without the benefit of film at the time of writing, that he was having trouble controlling space and the double-teams coming on at least a chunk of the plays. Another way we can tell the LOS wasn’t completely dominated by Cal? The Aggies rushed for 4.28 yards per carry from their backs, and the linebackers had only the sack from Goode. JOHNSON! chipped in a TFL, Hawkins came down for one from the secondary, and Bequette had the other two, but not getting more from Weaver or Deng (and to some extent Paul and Goode) is somewhat telling.

What I’m saying is that Bequette may be more fit at end, where he was already great last year, and if he were to slide back to end…yes, I’m advocating what you think I’m advocating. START. BRETT. JOHNSON!

Kuony Deng is going to be an absolute monster…later this season, or next year. He’s not big enough yet. He’s still working on the mental aspect of the game. But man, that speed. That length. It’s real, guys. It’s damn real. Goode was also fine. Expecting more from these guys as the year continues, and as DeRuyter empties out the bag a little bit.

Ashtyn Davis didn’t have a great day at the office, beginning with the turnover on the kickoff, then a missed tackle on the first drive, and was largely invisible after that, aside from a fumble recovery. Jaylinn “Ball” Hawkins – bad pun mine, not his -- made his presence felt fairly often in what will be a big proving season for him. The NFL could still be in his future.

Good to see some Chigozie Anusiem and Josh Drayden too. The Takers should really be considered a 7 man unit at this point, although I’m sure if you ask the coaches, it really comprises everyone at the position. They were fine as a group. Just not as dominant as usual. I think a lot of people were hoping or expecting a pick or two.

I’m fine if they’re saving them for next week.

IV. Unofficial Other Stats

Explosiveness – good to see the Bears ripping off chunk runs, but again, this cannot only be the responsibility of Chris Brown. The line will need to open holes more consistently next week, and just as importantly, get positive yardage going early in the downs. Hard to see the Bears winning another game where their average third is “and long”.

Points per trip inside the 40 – Points figure to be at a premium against Washington, who, it should be said, went 5 of 6 in the red zone versus EWU. (The only non-conversion came on kneeldowns at the end of the game.

Havoc – This may be the only time I pooh-pooh a 21% Havoc rate, which is excellent normally, but if the defense is as reactive versus proactive in the front 7 next week, it will be a long day. Eason can make a lot more throws than Browning and Haener did.

V. Special Teams

Made two field goals, including a career long 47 yarder for Greg Thomas. Missed one.

Fumbled a kickoff return, then had average returns for that side.

Punt return units missed a couple tackles on the one by Jaylin White, but Nikko Remigio was somewhat redeeming with a 14 yard average (including a 28 yarder!). It’s the first time in a long time anyone’s showed life in the punt return game – a term I mean here beyond “automatic fair catch”.

All in all, an afternoon that could have gone better for the group.