The Novel: Oregon State
I. Intro
At least there were bobbleheads.
That’s just about the only thing Cal fans will want to take away from this one, and maybe not even that. If you left an unopened Oski on the Memorial Stadium bleachers, fearing to take bad mojo home with you, I can’t blame you one bit, because this was a particular kind of awful.
Blowout columns are easy to write about, because you can always boil it down to “we got our asses beat” and start working on them halfway through the game – and over eight years covering the team, I’ve had plenty of experience with that.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are heartbreakers, which, while not fun to experience, are at least fun to do writeups on – there’s always the potential to re-examine those painful moments in ways that might be prosaically, or analytically useful, and never any shortage of things to say.
But these losses – losses that are completely, utterly unjustifiable, because they came at the hands of a conference opponent you usually Sharpie in as a win before the year; losses that are so thoroughly inexcusable that they should trigger a re-evaluation of the program’s trajectory from top to bottom…
Well, one, those are rare, and two, they are a special type of awful to compose.
As fate would so have it, the last one also came against Oregon State -- the Ryan Nall game three years ago, if you had already blocked it out of your memory – and afterwards, I texted Marc in frustration, knowing that the excuses had run their final course. Even the most reasonable and rational among us knew for sure. Sonny’s time was going to come to an end. This was not the guy.
I suspect, that for at least the offensive staff currently in place, people will end up remembering this game for similar reasons. And that’s what makes this awful to write.
Games like these, losses like these usually involve the inevitable conclusion that some changes need to be made, whether now or at the end of the season, and I mean this without a shred of the sarcasm it is often said with on the internet: I really do hate to see it. We are talking about real people – real families -- at the end of the day, and in extension of that view, I’ve never really been comfortable with advocating for someone’s firing openly with my platform. I certainly don’t think it’s something we should suggest off-handedly.
With that being said, Wilcox – if he’s as smart of a coach as he’s proven to be on the defensive side of the ball – must know for sure now too, the same way I and Marc did, sending sad resigned text messages to each other after that game in Corvallis.
Something has to give on the offense.
II. Grab Bag
Wilcox, who had just signed an extension, is safe. He’s not going anywhere for right now. Yes, the parallels between him and Sonny, in regards to only half a fully functioning team, are quite eerie. No, I would not trade for Sonny back. No, we don’t have to talk about it now. Yes, even if the Bears lose out the rest of the way, which is possible.
Regarding the above paragraph: Cal could absolutely finish 4-8 with the offense at this level. We might not, due to the continued guts of the defense, but none of this is unfamiliar. It’s the same team as last year, except with a slight regression in defensive performance. It only hurts worse because this is the last year for a lot of special talents. (In yet another Sonny parallel.)
Trace likes to say that winning is good for business, and with the offense playing the way it is right now, I’m not sure when business will re-open. At this moment, I’m thinking only one win the rest of the way, and I couldn’t tell you who it is – I’m just sure we win one by uglying it up.
This one was that important to win for bowl hopes.
To be clear, it’s not so much losing to Oregon State that’s the problem. They’re definitely on the uptick. It’s losing to the agreed bottom of the conference team in general, which is always a realization that you’re the bottom of the conference. It’s just that the cellar-dewllar has happened to be the Beavers the last half decade or so. We all know these things tend to go in cycles, so in a few years it could be Wazzu, or ASU, or whatever.
It is, however, worth noting:
Tedford’s last game in 2012 and fall from grace in 2007: both against Oregon State
Jahvid Best being injured: Oregon State
The aforementioned Dykes game: Oregon State
Saturday: Oregon State
III. Offense
The discussion of the offense should really start and stop with this: they had two weeks. Down multiple starting linemen and QB1, you would have hoped that two weeks to prepare for one of the worst defenses in the country should have resulted in more than this:
· 3.7 yards per play, which was lower than what Cal held OSU to.
· 9 sacks
· 14 TFL
· 17 points against a defense that was giving up 35 heading into the game, and 52 last week
Mind you, those are just the numbers, statistical benchmarks that might have been the lowlight of many teams’ seasons, but have become a glaring norm here.
But with two weeks planning, you also would have hoped for, I don’t know, anything like misdirection, scheming guys open. Oregon State didn’t play that well on offense either, but they hit on some big gainers by design with aggressive playcalling that showed a play-to-win mindset, while Cal’s best moments on offense – a 37 yard run by Modster and a 26 yard run by Modster – were both unplanned scrambles. The other, we’ll discuss below.
Cal’s last four drives, when up 17-14:
- 3 and out (run run run)
- 3 and out (run run pass)
- 3 play drive ended by interception (pass pass pass; down 21-17)
- turnover on downs (pass, PI, sack, pass, pass, sack)
Without looking at the tape yet, it’s pretty clear Baldwin wanted to try to let Modster get some easy throws,. Slants, outs, preventing him from having to throw 10+ or 15+ down the field – he was 4 of 9 for 82 yards and a TD, which, while solid looking, is not consistent enough to move the chains. Almost no QB is going to lead a successful offense completing barely half his passes, and you're not exactly helping him if the game plan is to rely on your backup offensive linemen to help rush the ball for 1-2 yards without trying any sort of misdirection or wrinkles. So, between the general inaccuracies and the continued anemia of the run game, combining that with some unforced drops, well...this isn’t an offense that can survive any setbacks whatsoever, really. And in any case, Oregon State had a bead on how Beau was going to try to play, and they definitely knew it when they sniffed out the slant-RPO to Remigio at the end of the game.
Over three seasons, we've not seen the offense really evolve at all. It uses more tight ends now, sure, and there's a little more variety in the personnel out there, but there's no semblance of scheming up easy touches for anyone. When was the last time Cal caused a legitimate defensive breakdown because defenders were unsure of what to do? (Side note: Kekoa Crawford was hurt)
I know it's not the ideal set of skill guys. Look over at the other sideline, though. Oregon State isn't exactly teeming with top playmakers, and they at least got guys in positions to make plays.
I’m not really convinced that Devon Modster is a real FBS starter, even when healthy, although it’s hard to know for sure with what he’s been given. In any case, I’m not in love with his arm strength or accuracy, and I found the throw to Duncan – while a good result – to still be a bit floaty.
Josh Yuen from the Daily Cal noted cruelly that the Oregon State touchdown to go ahead 21-17 occurred at exactly the same time in the game – 4:41 in the 4th – as Eno Benjamin’s. Both games, as you know, were losses.
Marcel Dancy definitely did not have it Saturday, and it took a little bit too long for the staff to turn back to CBJ.
The line today was Bazakas, Daltoso, Cindric, Mettauer, Curhan, and the middle three were getting beat a lot. PFF graded them at 16 pressures allowed by the three of them, two penalties, and three sacks. The hope is that it pays off in the future for Cindric and Mettauer, who were pressed into action earlier than anyone hoped.
Tough position for Spencer Brasch to be in too. He should not be playing right now, so I don’t blame him for not leading the team to victory, and even for people who wanted him to be in the game before Modster was hurt, I was strongly in disagreement -- there are really suboptimal conditions for facilitating his success, with a lot of negative implications down the line in the depth chart. Of course, now there may not be a choice.
IV. Defense
What more is there to say about these guys that hasn’t already been said? Oregon State went 3 and out on 6 of 14 drives, with two 6 and outs, and a 7 play drive that went 6 yards total. Add that up, and they more than did their jobs, since the only two unaccounted drives were end kneeldowns.
Yes, they gave up 21 points, but 21 points is enough to win most games, and I bristle at the notion floated by Wilcox that the defense’s “three bad drives” was at its core responsible for the loss. (Editor’s Note: Wilcox is a defensive coach, so he’s going to talk about the defense in that way. In the moment, this was after he’d talked about the struggles that the offense had had)
What hurts more is that the defense is now taking some of the shape we hoped they would at the beginning of the year. Kuony Deng and Cam Goode are rapidly rounding into form – both were extremely disruptive and provided so, so much athleticism in space, with still room for improvement. Deng’s tackling was better overall now that he won’t play against as many power running teams. This was a case where I liked them both better than what PFF graded, and if the Bears are lucky enough to get Goode back next year, they’ll once again be one of the top linebacking teams in the conference. Against an Oregon State team really lacking for playmakers outside of Hodgins – and he was largely contained – the Bears brought Goode, Weaver, and Bynum off the edge quite often as their extra man.
It’s a good sign that they were able to sack Luton five times, since coming into the game the Beavers had only given up 3.9% sack rate – five on 34 dropbacks is 15%! They spent the bye week productively, at least.
BRETT JOHNSON! with the start, and the second highest graded guy on the team next to Zeandae Johnson. Luc Bequette on his other side. If only some annoyingly smarmy writer suggested this. Perhaps even in this very space.
V. Unofficial Advanced Stats
YPP – Before the game, I pointed out how these teams were pretty inversely matched; by SP+, Cal was as good at defense and as bad at offense, as Oregon State was the opposite. It showed itself here in this statistic too – and when the YPP and plays run both come out this close, it usually means one or two plays is the difference (at least it wasn’t the missed FG!). Sigh.
3rd Downs – With one of the major focuses being to knock OSU off schedule, I’d say getting them into an average of 6 yards is pretty good. Still no improvement on the Cal side.
Havoc – This was just disgusting.
VI. Special Teams
Spectacular punting by Coutts to flip the field, strong return games, and really, only the missed field goal as the negative mark.
VII. Win Matrix
DID: UW, UNT, OM, UCD
UHH, LOOKS TOUGH: STAN, USC, UTAH, UCLA, WSU