The Novel: North Texas

It was set up to be an easy afternoon, a tune-up before a high-stakes trip into SEC territory.

Of course, if you’re reading this, you probably already know that was is the watchword, and the easy afternoon didn’t last. There was a brief moment, of course – about 20 minutes of game-time with a double digit lead that made the slow starts against UC Davis and Washington mostly memory.

And then, quarter YPPs of 2.7, 3.7, and 2.5; a skittish Chase Garbers refusing to get rid of the ball; Garbers barely throwing for more yards through the air than were gifted to the Bears by penalty; Garbers gamely fighting off hits from defenders living in the backfield; second half possessions that were essentially journeys to nowhere; a field goal over the last three quarters; a spread that went uncovered, all as rumors continue to swirl about Devon Modster’s potential clearance for next week. (I don’t know about that. Don’t ask me.)

In the last chapter of The Novel, I wrote: “when Garbers plays his best, he can be a serviceable Power Five starter, but a lot has to happen for him to play his best."

It is obvious that he did not play his best against UNT, and that qualifier of “a lot” means understanding, even excusing that his play is impacted by some back-ups on the offensive line and a still developing receiver corps. It meant accepting the performances against the Aggies and Huskies, too.

What “a lot” doesn’t excuse is a near refusal to throw the ball downfield whatsoever on Saturday, occasional struggle of guys to get open be damned – and based on what those with better field angles were reporting, there were certainly still numerous opportunities.

At the quarter mark of the season, it’s clear this edition of the Cal defense isn’t on track to reach the best-in-school-history heights that we originally hoped – the middle is too consistently attackable for that – but it is at least as good as last year’s, meaning that no game should be out of reach on paper. Not USC, not Oregon, not anyone.

The problem? This offense is consistently playing at a level that makes no game a sure thing, either. Not Oregon State, not UC Davis, and most importantly right now, not Ole Miss.

Of course, the Bears will show up next week in the Grove and play their asses off regardless. They always do. That’s what a Justin Wilcox led team does, and it feels awful to be so down when the team is undefeated. But as always, I am looking ahead – projecting what is sustainable, what is suboptimal is how I have always approached this space, and as best as I can put it, I think the general frustration in the fanbase comes from when, or if playing hard happens to not be enough.

I think that you can live with player mistakes. Those’ll happen. That’s the game. It feels a lot different when coaching doesn’t put players in positions to succeed, though, and this long under this offensive staff, you’re getting the inkling that that’s may not be happening.

II. Offense

In non-Garbers things, it was rough all-around, beginning up front and trickling down through there. The team lost the battle at the line of scrimmage in a big way, whether it was one TE, two TEs, Bazakas or Brandon Mello in there. I understand LaDarius Hamilton or Dion Novil might be NFL players – they certainly looked that way against us -- or that UNT has access to some overlooked local talent. Whatever. They still allowed 31 points to FCS ACU and 49 to SMU the week before – for all of Cal’s offensive struggles, you would have really hoped to emerge from this one feeling good against a unit that was vulnerable to explosive plays. Instead, push was extremely inconsistent, and not even the normal tackle-breaking brilliance of Christopher Brown Jr. could make things happen.

A rare highlight: the 4th down sweep for Remigio, which was a tendency breaker.

Another highlight at the beginning: how Cal showed a lot of looks early on in the first quarter, and had some decent success out of those, before UNT decided they would just spy Chase and run him down.

That being said, Garbers is a fantastic runner, and I really had no problem with him choosing to pull the ball and run at times. It’s how often he runs that’s often been an issue – sometimes too much (Saturday), sometimes too little (last season), and not often just right. When there were guys open, he took off or checked down. When he threw downfield, it was inaccurate (or dropped, in the case of Reinwald). Just rough. Rough all around.

Another week of the Bears being awful on first and second down. Another week of them facing 3rd and long, which has often included Chase running this season, but is – say it with me now – unsustainable.

Again, no idea if they play Modster next week, but I’m sure everyone can understand if they at least start looking at things. Tough to just pull him though with the team being 3-0.

III. Defense

Obviously not up to their usual standards, which, first of all -- how freaking privileged are we to turn our noses up at a 4.6 YPP, 2 TO, sub 20 points allowed performance?! – and second of all, can be mostly accounted for by the combination of heat, the backups, and general number of plays. I am not gonna worry too much about the statistics or outcomes in that regard until we know who’s available next week or not.

Regardless, the Bears made Mason Fine look Mason Not Okay for most of the afternoon, with only three chunk plays allowed, and a lot of off-target throws. One dropped TD was given back by way of a breakdown by us, but also a drop by Reinwald, so I think that just about evened out.

Fine was the first QB to throw for over 200 yards against the Takers this season, as well as the first one to get a touchdown through the air.

No news yet at time of writing regarding Goode and his hamstring. Can’t overstate how necessary he is for the Ole Miss game next week. The Rebels themselves certainly know that. Great to see him back on track and productive, though. That was one of the first times we saw Cam Goode really look like the guy we expected.

Congratulations to Traveon Beck for being a prophet, calling his first interception at home this week, and also for being the gift recipient of an interception from Mason Fine. The UNT QB threw that ball off his back foot for reasons unbeknownst to anyone.

Some great plays from Kuony Deng in defending the flat, and then a couple of plays that showcase what we’ve all been saying – got dragged a couple of times for extra yards. They had more Tattersall in there this week, though.

While I’m not sure why Anusiem subbed for Elijah Hicks as often as he did, the future starter at corner did look solid in action, and in other backup news, Joey Ogunbanjo showed a lot coming off the edge, recording two quarterback hits. If Goode and Paul both can’t play, It looks like it’ll be Banjo, Croteau, and maybe Moos, who also got some game time.

Fitting that once again, Evan Weaver was the one breaking up the last play of the game. It’s been a treat to have watched him the last few years, the absolute madman.

Helluva game from Cam Bynum too, who was tested repeatedly on the edge and came up big.

Jaylinn Hawkins continues to show up more often than last year – where his contributions were more in coverage – but probably wants to have that one bad angle back though.

IV. Unofficial Advanced Stats

You know, it was cute in the first quarter when UNT’s yards per play would have put them on academic probation. It was still cute when that YPP rose to 3.2 at one point in the second quarter, where we could joke that they had been putting in work in the classroom. Needless to say, it was no longer cute when they passed Cal’s YPP on the afternoon and stayed there. We have never been outYPP’d by a non Power 5 team in the Wilcox era until yesterday (Weber, BYU, Idaho State is a small sample size, but still.)

Explosives remain higher than in the past, but that will not matter if the Bears do not start getting more consistent yardage on first and second down. Cal's Success Rate (reaching 50% of the yardage for a first down on first; 70% of the yardage for a first down on second; converting third down or fourth down) is horrible and consistently facing 3rd and 8, with Garbers’ legs or not is not conducive to long term success.

It was not entirely surprising that the Bears got outscored in the Havoc category either. Deeply concerning that it came against a defense already struggling, though.

V. Special Teams

Better effort by that group this week all around, including a great kickoff return by Jeremiah Hawkins. True to form, he bobbled it.

Greg Thomas is really quickly becoming Mr. Reliable. How fortunate Cal’s been to have had the likes of him and Matt Anderson the last couple years.

VI. Week 4 Win Matrix:

DID: UNT, UW, UCD

MUST: OSU

COULD: USC (upgraded from looks tough), UCLA, STANFORD, ASU

LOOKS TOUGH: WSU (downgraded from could), UTAH, OREGON, OLE MISS (downgraded from could)