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football Edit

The Novel: Colorado

I. Intro

It was on its way to being a laugher.

Halfway through the first quarter, Colorado quarterback Steven Montez was 2 of 8 for 2 yards, with two pick-sixes.

Ronnie Blackmon muffed a punt, and when the ensuing 4th and goal call was a Patrick Laird touchdown, all the vibes were good in Berkeley.

21-0, with Stanford on the way. Cool.

It’s just too bad it didn’t stay a laugher. With a bowl berth still up for grabs, the Buffaloes refused to quit, and soon, the 21-0 lead was cut to 27-21, one drive and subsequent Cal punt at time.

But that’s when Colorado made the second of two mistakes too many – Drew Lewis hit Chase Garbers when he was already heading out of bounds, and the Bears would go on to score the very next play; a Moe Ways touchdown that would end up providing the final margin.

Considering the Bears won by 12 points and were handed 14 in the first quarter, there’s a case to be made that they were gifted a win (Editor’s note: for what it’s worth, being in the right place for those INTs is a result of positioning based off film study). Just look at the list of Buffalo errors:

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Let’s be clear – it’s true they didn’t play particularly well for many reasons we’ll detail below, and that it shouldn’t have even been this close with a +5 TO margin, despite the bye week and returning personnel. And it also goes without saying that they’ll have to play much better if they want to reclaim the Axe. (Had the game been played on time, we probably feel a lot more confident about that matchup, but let’s hold that discussion in a second.)

But, a win is a win, and the plays still have to be made, especially when the Bears have been the ones on the other side of this thing all year long. Things have a way of balancing themselves out, in that regard, and they’re now onto the last and biggest game of the season.

II. Stanford

JJ Arcega-Whiteside is back and healthy. Bryce Love is back and…close enough. Those two additions are enough to worry about already on the Stanford offense, which went off for 49 points down in the Rose Bowl this weekend. That’s usually a two or three game total for us, and last year’s 17-14 slugfest happened before Arcega-Whiteside became an all-world wide receiver.

In short, there’s some cause for worry on the Stanford offense, because size, and red-zone threats – both components are healthy for the Trees now -- make a poor matchup for the Bears, who entered Colorado allowing points on 88% of red zone trips (touchdowns 60% of the time).

Then, when you factor in how thoroughly the offensive line was whipped without Patrick Mekari and reeling from the loss of Mike Saffell weeks before, and you have what seems to be a Stanford favorite.

Weird things happen during the game itself, which still has to be played, but it’s fair to suggest that the odds have shifted some…

I don’t feel as good as I did earlier. But regardless, everything has to be should be on the table here (…even if the year is technically a successful one regardless of Axe result.)

III. Offense

One of 17 on third down – which is what I shoot at the gym.

3.3 yards per play.

33 points despite being given favorable field position repeatedly.

An offense whose best play was Colorado penalty, Chase Garbers scramble, or punt and muff, despite some courtesy personnel wrinkles in the second half (Biaggio Ali-Walsh, McCallan Castles; Chris Brown was tried early and ineffective, Brandon McIlwain saw some courtesy snaps at wide receiver)

Had the Bears managed to lose with a five turnover advantage, it would have definitely fallen squarely on the offense. Beau Baldwin may still not make it to next year for many reasons, but at least he won’t be left out on Telegraph Ave tonight.

Give them some credit for continuing to go for it on 4th downs though, including the one beautiful conversion by Malik McMorris, who snagged Garbers’ pass as he was getting hit. That’s the kind of thing you have to do to eke out every tiny advantage you have.

The line suffered massively without Patrick Mekari and despite the use of jumbo sets, forcing Valentino Daltoso and Gentle Williams in at the left side of the line, while Gibson took right guard. Two weeks ago, it was Mekari-Daltoso-Ooms-Gibson-Curhan and that was already a substitute for the injured Mike Saffell.

Garbers was not having a great game outside of his pull and scrambles – again late on a handful of RPOs and also with weird, notably inconsistent decisions on zone read. But, he kept the ball safe, and hit when necessary. That won’t be enough to lift Cal any further than this in the future, though, which makes this next offseason critical in determining how far the program can go under him.

Another essential Vic Wharton game where he does just enough as a receiver, draws a key penalty, but he’s been miscast this last year as the #1. Losing Kanawai Noa to help shoulder that load – for whatever reason Kanawai Noa has not been effective – has been a big struggle. Just want to recognize that he’s been put in a tough situation this year, even if he hasn’t been playing up to what we hoped.

…because without Vic, it was Moe Ways’ three catches, and nothing else. Happy to see him get his first ever TD on senior day.

You’ll notice there’s not that much more here in the offense section, because really, what else was there to say? When the GPA test fails for YPP, it is really easy to figure out why – Chase was under pressure the entire game and trying to make things happen, Laird wasn’t respected, the receivers didn’t get free, and so on and so forth.

It was the same script we’ve already seen. Whether they have enough pages left to get another win or two, getting to even 7 wins with arguably the worst offense in the Power Five is an achievement in itself.

IV. Defense

What a game from the Cal defense, and special teams. Steven Montez was frustrated, bamboozled, and bottled up all game.

How well prepared were the Bears? Besides figuring out what route combinations that Colorado was planning on – evident on both pick-sixes, including the beautiful disguised cover-1 robber look where Ashtyn Davis just sat on an incoming dig route – they were absolute terrors going after Kurt Roper’s quick and tunnel screen series.

Colorado’s first half offensive series:

3 and out (INT)

3 and out (INT)

3 and out (legit)

punt – 8 plays, 25 yards

TD

INT – 9 plays, 25 yards

4 and out

HALF (3.2 YPP; 5.3 second half)

By the time they had made adjustments – and tempo in the second half was one of them – the Bears had done enough to stake themselves to a lead they could hang onto.

General brilliance again from Weaver and Kunaszyk, who ran around and caused havoc against Travon McMillan and Kyle Evans. Both those guys, on Senior Day, will be missed next year. One will for sure be gone.

Another big Senior Day goes to Alex Funches, who got 2.5 TFLs and was third on the team with 6 total tackles. Continued to work hard all year, every play, from the first day he got to Cal as a JUCO transfer. Feels fitting that his probable replacement committed to the Bears yesterday.

Cam Bynum won some, lost some, but the fact that they turned Laviska Shenault (7 for 65) into Vic Wharton (6 for 61) is a win, period. Some of his catches allowed came in the vicinity of other guys, yes. Doesn’t change his stock, though.

How about Ashtyn Davis? The two picks, the generally solid safety play getting over on top of deep routes…this is the most range I really think he’s shown. Hope he comes back next year. A joy to watch.

Traveon Beck, huge on special teams, Alex Netherda, huge on special teams, and the rest was just a master class in making the QB miserable.

V. Advanced Stats

With these numbers, Cal usually loses the game – they barely averaged any scores on their 15 possessions, inflated or not -- and they might have, if it weren’t for such a vast turnover disparity. Certainly if it was +1 or +3, things would be really, really different.

AGAIN! ONE OF SEVENTEEN! The worst part was that most of the times there was no hope of even getting into a run down, since the average 3rd was 8.6 yards. When you ask this offense to get into a passing situation, you’re in trouble, because at this point in the year, there aren’t even five good receivers left. (Jordan Duncan was back but had one target, and Noa still wasn’t.)

And almost nothing going on first down, where they ran 14 times for 19 yards, versus 6 of 10 passing for 69 yards. (Probably should've passed more.)

VI. Special Teams Report

- Coutts downed Colorado inside their own 20 5 times

- Two special teams fumbles forced

- Two made kicks by Greg Thomas

- One long-ish return by Ashtyn Davis

- -6 yards of returns on punt by Colorado; one longish kick return

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