The Novel: Cal in the Cheez-It Bowl

This column will not include much in the way of specific Cheeze-it Bowl observations, since we all know offense bad, defense good, special teams below average.

I wish I was writing an intro right now about how all the stars aligned for Chase Forrest to be a winner and a legend in his final college game– at a field that bore his freaking moniker.

But this is not that intro, because most of the time, sports doesn’t care about your perfect storyline, and it certainly doesn’t care about giving it to your opponent instead.

And that’s exactly what happened, as it was TCU’s Grayson Muehlstein getting the win in his final college game; Muehlstein, who entered the year as one of only two scholarship quarterbacks in the country to have stayed at their original school for four years and never make a start.

The other, naturally, was Chase Forrest.

In the words of the internet, “it be like that sometimes.”

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The above is one of only many, many unbelievable facts about the 2018 Cheeze-It Bowl, a game that was far more hilarious in person than it had the right to be, although I understand your experience at home may have varied.

You will wonder, at some point, how I will be writing this column with such incredulity, instead of ire.

Well, the answer is simple: non-major bowl games are an exhibition. Sure, a win would be nice – and finishing 8-5 versus 7-6 looks different – but it’s ultimately less consequential to the health of a program than how you did in the regular season and how you’re trending. I’m of the thought that most of the supposed bowl value is derived from making us feel good heading into spring, and to be able to send the seniors off right.

1) Grayson Muehlstein came into the game having thrown zero interceptions on 43 pass attempts. He proceeded to throw four on his next 20. No, really.

2) The highest quarterback rating in this game was posted by fourth-string TCU signal-caller Justin Rogers, who does not have full working facilities in one foot at the moment. Said highest quarterback rating was a stat-line of 1 of 1 for 1 yard.

3) TCU’s only touchdown of the game was reviewed and retroactively overturned after the 4th quarter already began, meaning that we went back in time to the third quarter, kicked the extra point, then entered the 4th quarter for a second time.

4) Offensive lineman Jake Curhan(!!) chased down a TCU DB from behind to save the game. Well, for five minutes, anyway.

5) The Horned Frogs began their overtime drive at the 40 yard-line because their Sports Information Director was flagged for a sideline warning on the aforementioned interception in point 4.

6) TCU completed a 15 yard pass on their final drive of regulation. This throw accounted for over half their passing yardage accumulated.

Additional addendum to 6: Jaylinn Hawkins was the leading receiver on both teams, with three passes caught.

7) Jaylinn Hawkins had 29 return yards. TCU had 28 through the air. Total.

8) Gary Patterson switched kickers twice at the end of regulation for reasons that remain unclear to me. They missed the kick anyway.

9) This game would have required a minimum of a second overtime to hit the over/under in Vegas, which was 38. (Hope you had the under. I would have told you this.)

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Before this game, I figured that the influx of JUCO guys was evidence that they were going to give this offensive staff one more year to try to inject some changes with their own guys.

I am now less than sure that will happen – I definitely don’t think it should – but mostly because the donors who saw this should be rightly disgusted, the fanbase itself is already agrumble, and that there’s no evidence to think the staff won’t mishandle that future talent based on the lack of improvement they’ve produced with this set of guys. (The rash of transfers from guys who are in positions to earn playing time next year could also be seen as further evidence of this.)

What transpired on offense was egregious, given the three weeks to prepare. The coaches aren’t the ones making the turnovers, but they are the ones involved in preparing players not to make them, or putting players in a position to succeed, and that’s just not happening. Forrest, in his first significant playing time, had to throw far more than you would have wanted him to, and equally egregious was not going back to Garbers once they knew he didn’t have it.

What did we see in the gameplan that was new, given the time they had off? Consistent jet sweep motions with Laird who got hurt and TCU snuffed it anyway? A couple of new screen looks, including some from tight splits right off the tackle? Anything else? What did we spend the break on?

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So, I thought this up over lunch in Phoenix the next day:

Let’s assume that Coach Wilcox is a smart, competent coach.

If he is smart and competent – which we have multiple seasons worth of data to prove -- then he should know now that he can’t do nothing differently on offense, both because he is smart and competent, and because of the reasons we mentioned above regarding the donors.

Let’s also assume that the combination of recruiting and performance makes Steve Greatwood and Charlie Ragle safe, and the relatively new resume of Burl Toler gets the pass for another year too.

That leaves the following change candidates, ranked from least to most likely in this order: Tui (direct tie to Wilcox), Baldwin, and Edwards (contract runs out next Feb anyway).

Scenario A – Nothing

They run it back using the logic that they need their own players, and that help is on the way.

Implications: Possible due to the erratic track record regarding our program’s decision making, but unlikely due to above assumptions on Wilcox being a competent coach. Would be a tough sell to the fans, who are starting to return, and also said donors.

Scenario B – Tinkering

Keep Tui and Baldwin under the above “help is coming” logic; Edwards walks

Implications: Gives the appearance of action, just enough not to remain the same. Might be palatable to some.

Scenario B.1 – Tinkering Variant

Keep Tui and promote him to OC; Edwards and Baldwin walk

Implications: This one is within the realm of possibility because it promotes continuity on the team and in its philosophies somewhat, and it frees Tui to bring in his own guys if he wants to (although we should wonder what’s the point of only changing over half the offensive staff if that’s the case). Might be a hard sell to turn the offense over to the guy who oversaw this year’s QB debacle, though.

Scenario C – Burn It All Down

Fire everyone

Implications: Most expensive option; not entirely out of the question because there is a clear willingness by donors to provide Wilcox with a successful infrastructure after this extension. I don’t know who would be available, but it’s gotta be on the table.

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I’ll be mentioning this a lot more over the offseason, but this team could and likely will improve its quarterback play next year and still not win much more than 7 games in the regular season, just due to the schedule.

Therefore, I urge you not to rate next year’s offense purely based on the games won or lost.

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Farewell, 2018 season. We hardly knew ye, and yet, we hope to never know ye ever again. On offense, anyway.