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The Novel: Big Game 2017

I. Intro

Years from now, on my worst nights when my brain is unforgiving and decides to dredge up my most painful memories for little to no reason at all, there will be the lasting visual of the 2017 Big Game: of hope fluttering in the air for that long moment; Ross Bowers’ pass on the way to an open receiver; the Bears about to take the lead late in the fourth quarter; the Axe heading home after seven seasons a hostage, Stanford Stadium ripe for storming.

And I will wake up numb and near catatonic, the way I sat for the final 7:25 of this one, knowing all of it turned in three seconds. A few days later, I haven’t yet figured out if that crushing feeling of hope being plucked from the air or the slow, inevitable steamroller of the Stanford offense to run out the clock was worse – the football equivalent of choosing between death by decapitation or death by drowning.

Then, the glum, silent walk back to the car, with all Blue and Gold minds cursing alike, chalking up another war story to share.

Sigh.

It is hard to balance that immense disappointment with the fact that we can’t be at all upset at how Cal played on Saturday – the roster being what it is now, this engine of heart and grit still gave them a fighting chance throughout, two touchdown underdogs and all. And that reality will not be of much comfort – Stanford does have the longest winning streak in the rivalry now and all six of their Twitter guys are having a ball -- but it has to be acknowledged regardless: this is the closest we’ve come to toppling them since 2011, a rainy evening in Palo Alto, and a few months before I would start covering the team.

I’m still waiting for a win since then, and I do not know how long it’ll be until I stop waiting.

Probably not too much longer, under this staff. This week, we can all be thankful to have that – the unwavering confidence that this program is heading somewhere again, not stuck in neutral as once was.

II. A couple other assorted thoughts:

This game was a dead heat statistically – 5.9 to 5.9 YPP, 378 to 337 yards, 182 to 185 through the air, 193 to 155 on the ground (because Stanford had the ball last). That should tell you that we were their equals on Saturday, and sure, we had a bye. They had no Bryce Love, for the most part. Sure. But when you think about all the Bears have had to overcome already, and the game was on the road, and Vegas thought we’d be rolled, I’d say those respective handicaps even out.

Nothing to say about the UCLA game that hasn’t been said already. It’s make a bowl time, regardless of how terrible we’ve been on the road or at Pasadena or whatever. Let’s just get the thing done.

I am not sure if I would have preferred to play them with Mora or without him. Probably with, to be honest – I’ve long suspected that they were ready to quit under him, based on how often I saw guys loafing around and on their long habit of underachievement.

Rosen looks like he’ll be fully available too. This won’t be a cakewalk in that case, so we’re mostly banking on them not being prepared for the chaos of a coaching change.

Whoever planned the Stanford campus, I hope you’re suffering. The place is a genuine nightmare to get out of and generally navigate. My girlfriend met my parents – an Asian home visit is probably only less important in magnitude than meeting a foreign dignitary – this weekend and the biggest test to our relationship was finding parking there. Seriously.

(Editor's Note: It's the absolute worst)

In another bit of news, my other son Atonio Mafi reportedly tore his Achilles this weekend, which is equally devastating for him individually as it is for Cal’s short-term prospects. We had him penciled in as a contender, if not outright starter at Tony Mekari’s nose tackle spot next year, and that’s pretty uncertain now. Get well soon, Mafi. #TonioMafia #TongaTruck

Probably goes without saying that they win this game with Devante, Saffle, and Goode. Maybe even less than that.

III. Offense (Acceptable/Exceeds expectations)

Shorter column with the holiday weekend. Also, I just got a Nintendo Switch.

Save for the interception, this was a fine game for Ross Bowers, who only had misses trying to connect one on one deep or on the wheel. Everything else was calm and easy for him. The increased RPO usage has helped simplify things for him quite a bit, and he was free from too many easy misfires. Took what the yards that were there and kept it simple for himself.

Still gotta run more, though.

Patrick Laird is a hero. Not too much more to say about him that hasn’t already been said, and he would have been the MVP had the Axe come home. Most of the year, his yardage has come from his own efforts, but the holes were very large on Saturday, with clean running lanes throughout for him to work with. Luckily, we should be getting him back in 2018, and whether or not he ends up spelling Tre or getting the job outright, we’ll always have this year.

This was a game where the development of some of those young guys, or Demetris Robertson at all – remember Demetris? – would have helped immensely. Noa was absolutely swallowed up – two catches, five yards, two targets all night – and that left Wharton and Veasy to drag the passing offense along, bit by bit, but neither could really generate a gamebreaking play the way we’ve lacked all season.

Stanford tallied only 3 TFL on 57 Cal plays. Given this mark, probably the best – maybe second best – game of the year in that regard. Great job up front all game keeping Ross heat free, too.

IV. Defense (Exceeds expectations)

A few weeks ago against Arizona, I explained that a high Havoc rate is really difficult against good rushing teams without outstanding disruption, since they design plays to get basically guaranteed yardage – reading a guy correctly should usually net a positive result, so against teams like these, even getting a 1 to 2 yard gain is as good as anything.

Well, there aren’t really any disruptors left for Cal, so Stanford could just kind of grind their way down a few yards at a time. We recorded zero, count em, zero tackles for loss. I’m struggling to be angry at this, because of the players we have lost, and despite all that, they made a play or two here or there that was almost enough to win anyway.

No pass pressure on this night either, which is another reason why it is hard to be too upset. The matchup going in was already kind of poor and not in our favor, and when it plays out that way and we still almost win, you can’t be too upset. Even if you are anyway.

Bryce Love carries for 1st down or touchdown: 2 of 14

Bryce Love carries of 2 yards or less: 4 of 14

Cameron Scarlett carries for 1st down or touchdown: 4 of 14

Cameron Scarlett carries for 2 yards or less: 5 of 14 (including that final 4th and 1)

Which gives you 9 out of 28 carries, we got them slowed down at an acceptable clip. Just a play short. A yard short.

As far as in the pass game, we figured the size differential might be an issue, and it was, moreso on the outside than anywhere else – Arcega Whiteside feasted against our smaller corners (even Bynum, who recorded 3 PDs, had a couple issues), and with everyone so heavily packed in against the run, it was a result we found acceptable and were willing to live with. Unfortunate.

The PI call by Allensworth was fairly made up for with the interception before the half which stopped any more points, I think.

Considering how many 3rd and passing situations they faced (defined as 6+, basically), Stanford did a solid job getting the ball for Costello into winnable situations. Props to him for making those throws.

V. Unofficial Advanced Stats

Havoc – 7.8% (5PD on 64 plays); Stanford – 10.5% (3 TFL, 1 INT, 1 PD, 1 FF on 57 plays).

We already talked about this above, but a handful more plays would have done the trick against them. Zero came against the run.

Explosives: Cal: 2 Pass, 4 run on 57 plays – 10.5%; Stanford – 6 (2 pass; 4 run) on 64 plays – 9.4%

Pretty even here, too, and Love was responsible for only one of these… the backbreaker.

Points per trip inside 40:

Cal: 3, 0, 3, 8 – 14 on 4 trips (2 others ended at 44 and 48 yard line); 3.25

Stanford: 3, 7, 7, 0 – 17 on 4 trips; 4.25

Here is the other nightmare. Coming in, we all knew that possessions would be at a premium, and both sides ended up with six apiece only. Futzing around to get a field goal, or punting – the quick kick was nigh inexcusable and we were lucky it resulted in a missed FG at all – would not be the way to cut it.

Also want to note we’ve been consistently mediocre coming out of the half offensively this year, it feels like. This time it was a 9 play, 31 yard possession that resulted in a punt.

VI. Special Teams: (Incomplete)

Uh, missed field goal aside, there were no other plays of note. Cal did not return a punt or kick all game, and Stanford had two Cam Scarlett returns go for about average length.

Actually, fake punt by Dylan Klumph got a first down.

So you know what? They pass. Okay.

Special Teams: (Acceptable)

VII. Closer

Go get a bowl.

Wow. Much insight. Strong close.

But seriously, Happy Thanksgiving, everybody. Be well. Be merry. Be loved. And be grateful you’re not fired on your birthday.

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