Cal is in Fort Worth this weekend for a rematch of the Cheez-It Bowl with TCU. It's an important game for the Bears and the Pac-12 as a whole, which plays a number of big games Saturday. It's a chance for the Bears to win back perception after an ugly loss to Nevada in week one, as to whether the direction of the Bears season will go toward 2006 (a 10-3 year despite a season opening loss to Tennessee) or 2012 (where a season opening loss to Nevada saw the Bears toward a 3-9 season, ending with the firing of Jeff Tedford).

Notes:

Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

Time: 12:30 PST (2:30 Local)

TV: ESPNU

Radio: KGO 810

Series Record: TCU Leads 1-0 (2018 Cheez-It Bowl)

- Cal is 2-0 in Amon G. Carter Stadium, with both wins coming against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl (2007 and 2015)

- Justin Wilcox is 3-0 in non-conference road games at Cal, while TCU's Gary Patterson is 7-0 against Pac-12 opponents

- Wilcox and Patterson had faced off prior to the Cheez-It Bowl, as Patterson and TCU took down a Boise State team (where Wilcox was the defensive coordinator) 17-16 in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl

- Cal has seven players from the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro area, along with six other players from the state of Texas (Collin Gamble, Josh Drayden, Isaiah Humphries, J Michael Sturdivant, Miles Williams, Craig Woodson, and Myles Jernigan all have hometowns in the area, while McKade Mettauer, Ashton Stredick, Kaleb Higgins, Mason Mangum, Marqez Bimage, and Cameron Goode all hail from other parts of the Lone Star State)

Injuries:

Cal

Out for the year/long-term: OLB Patrick Hisatake, OLB Kaleb Elarms-Orr, DL Brett Johnson, ILB Blake Antzoulatos, S Craig Woodson, OL Dylan Jemtegaard

Doubtful: DL Aaron Maldonado, ILB Ryan Puskas, ILB Andy Alfieri

Likely to Play: RB Chris Brooks

TCU:

Likely Out: DE Khari Coleman

Probable: CB Noah Daniels, DL Terrell Cooper

Likely to play: OL Wes Harris

Highest Graded Returners from 2020 for TCU (Minimum 100 Reps Played)

Offense

QB Max Duggan - 79.2 PFF Grade

2020 Stats: 60.8% completion, 1795 yards, 10 TDs, 4 INTs, 7.4 yards per attempt; 116 rushes for 526 yards, 10 TDs (22 of these rushes were scrambles, 21 of these were sacks per PFF)

2021 Stats: 14-19 for 207 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT; 2 rushes for 9 yards, 1 TD

Duggan, despite the amount of talent TCU has at running back, was the Horned Frogs leading rusher in 2020 and is as talented of a running quarterback as Cal will play all year. Duggan does well throwing to the center of the field, especially on deep balls. He went 8-17 for 355 yards and 3 TD on throws between the numbers and beyond 20 yards in 2020.

Where Duggan was bothered a year ago was against the blitz, with his completion percentage dropping to 48% and yards per attempt dropping to 6.2. TCU runs a handful of RPO concepts, so knocking Duggan off his quick reads will be a key point of emphasis for the Cal defense.

C Steve Avila - 75.8 PFF grade

2020 Stats: 9 starts (six at center, two at right tackle, one at right guard)

2021 stats: 1 start (center)

An anchor of TCU's zone schemes, Avila is a big body at 6'4" and 335 lbs, able to be mobile and get to the next level on his blocks. TCU has a handful of backs who are strong in the cutback game, and Cal will have more runs coming at them then they did in week one. Avila will be met by Stanley McKenzie, Luc Bequette, and JH Tevis up front, as the Bears will have more size to contend with in TCU's front.

RB Kendre Miller - 72.9 PFF Grade

RB Zach Evans - 71.6 PFF Grade

Miller 2020 Stats: 54 carries, 388 yards, 2 TDs, 7.2 YPC

Evans 2020 Stats: 54 carries, 415 yards, 4 TDs, 7.7 YPC

Miller 2021 Stats: 8 carries, 54 yards, 1 TD, 6.8 YPC

Evans 2021 Stats: 5 carries, 27 yards, 1 TD

Two talented sophomore running backs with cutback ability and speed, with Evans, the former five-star back and TCU's highest ranked recruit ever, being a focal point. Along with Emari Demercado (who got the start week one), Miller and Evans will see time in the backfield. Of note, none of the running backs caught a pass in week one, though they're capable of doing so.

WR Derius Davis - 72.1 PFF Grade

Davis 2020 stats: 15 receptions, 209 yards, 1 TD, Two punt return TDs

Davis 2021 stats: 2 receptions for 57 yards

A big play threat out of the slot and a solid punt returner, Davis will do his damage in the RPO game, along with Nebraska transfer JD Speilman. Davis has three punt return TDs on 18 total returns, as Cal will attempt to keep him bottled.

Defense

DB Trevius Hodges-Tomlinson - 85.5 PFF Grade (highest graded CB in coverage in the country per PFF)

Hodges-Tomlinson 2020 Stats: 26 tackles, 13 pass breakups

Hodges-Tomlinson 2021 Stats: 1 interception

A 5'9" corner with a strong family lineage at TCU (nephew of San Diego Chargers' great LaDanian Tomlinson), Hodges-Tomlinson is 'sticky' in man coverage, allowing receptions on less than a third of his targets. He'll play mostly on the outside despite being relatively smaller than other DBs.

DB Noah Daniels - 79.0 PFF Grade

Daniels 2020 Stats: 13 tackles, 1 TFL, 4 PBUs in four games

Daniels suffered a season ending injury in 2020 and hasn't appeared yet in 2021, but he could play this week (he isn't listed on the TCU depth chart). A bigger corner at 6', Daniels is a willing tackler, but has dealt with injury issues for most of his career.

DE Ochaun Mathis - 75.1 PFF Grade

Mathis 2020 Stats: 46 tackles, 14 TFLs, 9 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recover

Mathis 2021 Stats: 3 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sacks

A talented long pass rusher who recorded just under a sack a game in 2020, Mathis has a big frame and long levers that can get him into the backfield against the pass or the run. He has been a reliable starter for TCU over the last three seasons

DE Dylan Horton - 70.1 PFF Grade

Horton 2020 Stats: 8 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble

Horton 2021 Stats: 3 tackles, 1 TFL

Horton got his first start a week ago, after playing as a backup in 2020 and transferring in from New Mexico prior to that. Horton is filling in for Khari Coleman, another highly touted defensive end, but the Frisco, Texas native graded well in limited playing time a year ago.

DT Patrick Jenkins - 68.4 PFF grade

Jenkins 2020 stats: 8 tackles 1 TFL, 1 sack in six games played

Jenkins 2021 stats: 2 tackles, 1 TFL

Jenkins will rotate with Earl Barquet at one of the defensive line positions, as the two are younger tackle prospects who have been good pass rushers from the interior.

Other TCU Names to Know:

LT Obinna Eze - a big transfer from Memphis with plenty of mobility despite his 6'8" 334 lb size

WR Savion Williams - 6'5" at receiver, targeted a bunch during week one, potential breakout guy down the road for the Horned Frogs

LB Dee Winters - Highest graded player in week one for TCU, leading tackle in the game as well with 7 tackles and a TFL

DT Corey Bethley - Super Senior and massive DT at 6'2" and 313 lbs. Has started 30 games at TCU

Cal's Keys

- Stop the RPO

Max Duggan can throw the ball downfield, but the majority of his throws are going to come in the RPO game. 45% of his week one passes came off play action, and the vast majority came from RPOs. Cal will have to make his first read unpalatable with their coverage and make him take the extra second or so with the Bears looking to get a better pass rush than they did a week ago

- Run the Ball (More Moore)

The run game cannot stop if it's effective, and Damien Moore is a key piece of that. Cal will go up against a bigger group in TCU's front, and how they block for Moore, Chris Brooks, Marcel Dancy and DeCarlos Brooks is worth watching, especially if the Bears are successful early.

- Downfield

Chase Garbers passed up a handful of deeper throws for shorter ones, and 4.7 yards per attempt isn't going to win games. Garbers will have to be comfortable throwing downfield, potentially more to the tight end group, who only saw three targets a week ago.

- Cutbacks

TCU's running backs feast on cutback lanes, and while the likes of Zach Evans and Emari Demercado can get to the edge, Cal's linebackers have to fill and tackle well against a better run attack than what they faced against Nevada. They'll also have to contend with a running QB in Duggan, as backside contain becomes that much more important.

- Better Return Coverage

TCU has solid kick (JD Spielman) and punt (Derius Davis) returners, and Cal leaked on a punt return a week ago. The Bears have to improve their coverage units, as Justin Wilcox noted that they may change a couple guys among that group, while noting Jamieson Sheahan has to hit a couple punts better.

Prediction

- Cal plays pissed off after a week one game they had every opportunity to win. TCU. If this is the year for Cal to finish the job, they take out a good TCU team on the road.

Cal 17, TCU 16