On Saturday at 12:30 PM PT/2:30 PM CT on ESPN2, #8 seeded Cal women’s basketball will take on #9 seeded North Carolina in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Waco, TX. Cal comes in at 19-12 overall and 9-9 in the Pac-12 while North Carolina comes in at 18-14 overall and 8-8 in the ACC.
On North Carolina: The Tarheels are led by redshirt senior guard Paris Kea (17.1 points & 3.9 assists), sophomore center Janelle Bailey (16.7 points & 8.9 rebounds), and redshirt junior guard Stephanie Watts (15.2 points & 5.5 rebounds). The three of them form a really dynamic trio that can beat you in a variety of ways.
Kea is sort of a jack-of-all-trades type of scorer, shooting 43.8% from the field, 30.9% from 3-point range, and 78.3% from the foul line. Bailey does most of her damage inside, shooting 47.1% from the field and 75.2% from the foul line. She can knock down threes, but it’s very rare as she’s made only 11 on the year on 45 attempts (24.4%). As for Watts, 3-point shooting is her forte (37.3% on over 8 attempts per game). This is a good thing as her overall field goal percentage (41.5%) and free throw percentage (66.0%) are not great.
As a team, the Tarheels average 75.0 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field, 33.0% shooting from 3-point range, and 75.2% shooting from the foul line. Their opponents in contrast average 70.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field, 32.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 72.1% shooting from the foul line. The main area of weakness for this Tarheels team is their rebounding. They average 37.1 rebounds per game with an average rebounding differential of minus 2.6.
It’s been an up and down season for the Tarheels. They defeated #1 seed Notre Dame 78-73 earlier in the year and have shown they have the ability to beat elite teams. At the same time, they’ve lost games that they should have won such as their 91-78 loss at Pittsburgh, who won just two games in the ACC this year. Cal can relate. They too showed they can hang with elite competition by beating Stanford while also showing they can lose to inferior competition like Harvard.
Keys to the game: If Cal wants to win this game, the first thing they need to do is get Kristine Anigwe going. She’s their top weapon and they weren’t able to get much out of her in the NCAA Tournament last year. Cal has to get her going early and force the Tarheels to find out a way to slow her down. If she has a big game, Cal should be in the driver’s seat to get the win.
Secondly, Cal needs to get quality play from their guards. When Asha Thomas, Receé Caldwell, and Kianna Smith play well, Cal has the ability to take things to a whole other level. Not only is their perimeter shooting welcomed, but so is their ball movement. If the three of them can have a big game, that will really go a long way towards Cal getting this win. If they’re ineffective, odds are good the Tarheels steal this game.
Lastly, Cal needs to defend the 3-point line. The Tarheels, specifically Watts, will hope to get things going from beyond the arc. When they’re knocking down shots, Bailey has a much easier time getting going inside. If Cal can take away this part of the Tarheels’ game, they’ll make things a lot tougher on them.
Quotes: Earlier this week, GoldenBearReport.com was on the scene for Cal’s NCAA Tournament watch party and was able to get the team’s thoughts on the tournament. Read that here.
Update: The Tarheels have been dealing with some injuries. Stephanie Watts has missed the last five games with a hyper-extended knee and is considered day-to-day going into the NCAA Tournament. The Daily Tarheel has the details here.
