On Friday night at 8:00 PM PST on Pac-12 Networks, Cal women’s basketball will welcome #3 Oregon to Haas Pavilion. Cal comes into this game at 14-7 overall and 5-5 in the Pac-12 while Oregon comes in at 21-1 overall and 10-0 in the Pac-12. Kristine Anigwe will set the program scoring record with her next point, surpassing Colleen Galloway (2,320).
Last time out: After an exhilarating win over Stanford in Berkeley, Cal got pummeled by Stanford when they met on The Farm on Saturday by a final score of 75-50. Kristine Anigwe finished with 20 points & 20 rebounds for Cal while DiJonai Carrington and Kiana Williams each had 19 points & 5 rebounds for Stanford. As a result of her performances against Stanford, Anigwe nabbed Pac-12 Player of the Week honors.
RECAP: Cal gets a reality check playing at Stanford
On Oregon: The Ducks are led by a dangerous trio consisting of junior guard Sabrina Ionescu (18.6 rebounds & 7.4 rebounds), sophomore forward Satou Sabally (17.7 points & 6.0 rebounds), and junior forward Ruthy Hebard (16.9 points & 9.3 rebounds). While taking more of a backseat role, redshirt sophomore forward Erin Boley (13.0 points) and senior guard Maite Cazorla (10.2 points) round out the starting five, giving the Ducks five players who score in double figures.
As a result of their stellar starting five, the Ducks are undefeated against a very talented and deep Pac-12 field, putting themselves in the driver’s seat for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. While Oregon has had some really good teams over the past few years, this year’s team has the feel of a team that just might win a national championship.
When looking at their statistics, what jumps out is the scary combination of high octane scoring and lockdown defense. In Pac-12 play, the Ducks average 86.1 points per game on 50.9% shooting from the field, 43.3% shooting from 3-point range, and 68.6% shooting from the foul line while holding opponents to 59.4 points per game on 38.0% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from 3-point range. Just to underscore this point, these are their numbers in the Pac-12, which is lauded as one of the deepest conferences in the country. To dominate the Pac-12 like this is staggering.
Keys to the game: Given how good Oregon is, it would be easy to just say that Cal needs to play the perfect game in order to win. Make every shot, get every stop, just play out of their minds. While that is probably true, let me highlight four things that Cal has to do if they are to win this game (I’m going with four because they’re playing Oregon).
The first thing Cal needs is a big night from Kristine Anigwe. If Cal is to have any shot at winning this game, they’re going to have to get another 20 points & 20 rebounds type of night from her. While it is true that Cal’s success often hinges on how the other players perform, that doesn’t take away from the fact that Anigwe is the backbone of this team. The reason they were able to squeak out a win against Stanford was because of how dominant she was. Cal’s only going to go as far as Kristine Anigwe can take them and from there, others have to step in when they can.
Secondly, Cal has to win the battle on the boards. During conference play, Oregon is averaging a +8.1 rebounding differential per game while Cal is averaging a +4.1 differential. If Oregon dominates the glass, there is no way Cal wins. This is not a category that Anigwe can win on her own. It will take a true team effort from Cal to come out on top on the boards. If they’re able to do that, they’ll give themselves a ray of hope to get the win.
Third, Cal needs to get some threes to fall. Cal is shooting a solid 35.0% from 3-point range, but they have the shooters to shoot north of 40.0% on any given night. Cal is playing their best basketball when they have Anigwe in a nice rhythm and players like Asha Thomas, Kianna Smith, Receé Caldwell, and McKenzie Forbes knocking down shots from the perimeter. If Cal is able to have a steady diet of threes to go along with a dominant performance from Anigwe, that will be huge as they go about trying to win this game.
Lastly, my final key to the game for Cal is to keep one of Oregon’s top three scorers below their scoring average. Cal has to defend Oregon well if they are to win and that starts with containing Ionescu, Sabally, and Hebard. If Cal can defend those players well and get at least one of them to have an off night, that will force other Oregon players to step up. The only real weakness in this Oregon team is their bench. They rely so heavily on their starters that if any one of them has an off night, they suddenly become vulnerable, even if it’s just a little.
