On Saturday at 1:00 PM PST on Pac-12 Networks, Cal men’s basketball will head to Pauley Pavilion to face the UCLA Bruins. Cal comes into this game at 5-8 overall and 0-1 in the Pac-12 while UCLA comes in at 8-6 overall and 1-0 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: Cal lost their opening game of Pac-12 play at USC by a final score of 82-73. Cal sophomore Justice Sueing had his first career double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds while USC junior Nick Rakocevic had a career-high 27 points to go along with 8 rebounds.
RECAP: Cal unable to win at USC as Pac-12 play begins
On UCLA: The Bruins have had a tumultuous week with the firing of head coach Steve Alford, but they responded well with their 92-70 win over Stanford. Murry Bartow has been promoted to interim head coach while the Bruins go about finding their next permanent head coach.
Alford’s dismissal came as no shock given the amount of talent this Bruins team has. Freshman Moses Brown, sophomore Chris Smith, sophomore Kris Wilkes, and sophomore Jaylen Hands are all on the NBA’s radar, making it unacceptable to go 7-6 in the non-conference portion of the season.
The top player for this Bruins team is definitely Wilkes, who is averaging 17.2 points & 4.4 rebounds per game. Wilkes is playing like an NBA lottery pick and should look to have a big game against a Cal defense that has had a tough time keeping opponents out of the paint. The other two Bruins scoring in double figures are Brown and Hands. Brown is averaging 11.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game while Hands is averaging 11.7 points and 6.9 assists per game. Together, Wilkes, Brown, and Hands form a really nice trio that can do damage both on the perimeter and in the paint.
As a team, the Bruins average 77.6 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field, 33.2% shooting from 3-point range, and 62.7% shooting from the foul line. The Bruins also average 42.6 rebounds per game for a +5.7 rebounding differential. Similar to Cal, where the Bruins really struggle is on defense. Opponents are averaging 73.3 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 34.0% shooting from 3-point range. The Bruins gave up 80 points to Ohio State and 93 points to Cincinnati, so they’re definitely a team that you can score on.
Keys to the game: As 14.5 point underdogs, there’s a lot that Cal needs to do in order to pull off the upset. If I could start with one thing, it would be interior defense. USC got whatever they wanted inside and UCLA would be smart to follow that same blueprint. Moses Brown will look to have a dominating performance inside while Kris Wilkes and Jaylen Hands will look to attack the rim.
If Cal can control the paint better and not allow so many easy looks inside, that will be huge. Connor Vanover needs to improve his rim protection, but it’s not just on him. Andre Kelly, Justice Sueing, Darius McNeill, and others need to do their part to keep guys out of the lane. Communication is really the key.
In addition to doing a better job in the paint, Cal needs to play to their strengths and get some shots from the perimeter to fall. When Cal is making threes, their offense gets into a good flow and they’re actually able to generate a good amount of points (73.0 points per game). Sueing, McNeill, and Vanover are the best 3-point shooters on the team, so it’s really on them to get going from the perimeter.
Finally, Cal needs to win the free throw battle. Cal has been really good at the line this year, shooting 76.3% on 21.4 attempts per game. UCLA in contrast is shooting 62.7% from the line on 22 attempts per game. If Cal can win the free throw battle decisively, that more than anything will give them a chance to win this game. Wilkes (63.3%) and Brown (37.0%) both really struggle in this department, so Cal shouldn’t be afraid to send them to the line.
