Let's start with a couple caveats on Cal's 76-62 upset of 21st ranked Colorado:
- The Buffs didn't play their best, not particularly because of anything Cal did. Mark Fox admitted as much in the post-game press conference. Colorado's starters aren't going to shoot a combined 1-15 from beyond the arc (a satanic 6.66%)
- A lot of breaks went Cal's way, including a technical foul on Tad Boyle that from the media vantage point, didn't really look like anything.
That said, a win over a ranked team is another step forward for Mark Fox's squad, as they essentially had a wire-to-wire win over one of the top teams in the conference.
Notes
- This was Cal's first win over a ranked team in just over a year, after beating 25th ranked Washington on February 25th, 2019
- Cal only trailed for 35 seconds of gametime, a 23-21 deficit erased by a Matt Bradley 3
- Cal started Kuany Kuany and DJ Thorpe, both getting their first starts in blue and gold. The two freshmen joined Bradley, Paris Austin, and Grant Anticevich in the starting lineup
"They’re really aggressive," Bradley said,"coach noticed that. Us as a whole team noticed that. Whenever they’re on the floor they play really aggressive and really hard. That’s what we needed for the game. And they started, so I’m proud of them."
"I thought in the face of adversity the other day (against Washington) they competed really hard,” Fox added. “A couple times a year your team looks like zombies and those kids kept battling. And my gut was telling me the last couple of days let me reward them. Let me reward them for how hard they played in Seattle. Let me start them. Let me give them a taste of it. They knew that they wouldn’t be out there long and I thought they both handled it very well and it got us off to a really good start.”
They ended up giving the Bears six points combined, but Kuany hit an early three, Thorpe hit a jumper late to sustain Cal's lead, and Thorpe showed some potential as a rim protector in the early going. Their growth throughout the year has allowed the Bears to rest Bradley a bit more (though the star sophomore played the most out of anyone on Cal's roster Thursday night).
- Thorpe and Kuany starting made it so the Bears have used seven different starting lineups throughout the year.
- One of the stranger things happened thanks to some clean play, but the first media timeout didn't come until 11:30 was left in the first half.
Where the Game Turned
Cal trailed 23-21 with 8:45 left in the first half, as Colorado had made eight straight field goals. There have been plenty of examples of Cal going cold offensively throughout the year as other teams got hot. Here's what followed:
- A Matt Bradley 3
- Double team on Tyler Bey forces a throwaway turnover
- A Matt Bradley 4 point play
- Bey makes 1 of 2 FTs
- A minute and a half of trading misses/turnovers before another Bradley 3
- Bradley draws a charge, McKinley Wright picks up his second foul, and Tad Boyle gets called for a technical.
- Bradley knocks down the free throws
From there, it was 33-24, with Colorado's best scorer/creator out. Joel Brown would hit from 3, Lucas Siewart would make a driving layup, and Kareem South would hit a midrange jumper to send the Bears into halftime with their biggest lead in conference play, a 38-26 game.
The deficit for Colorado was cut to 7 at its lowest, but the Bears responded time and time again, something that hasn't been the case even in their wins on the year.
Kareem South Excels
Matt Bradley's excellence has been routine, that despite defensive attention, he still puts in around 17 or 18 points a game. When Cal is at their best, they get contributions in addition to their star, and South provided that, via drives, pullups, and a couple threes that sank the dagger into the Buffaloes.
Two of South's early buckets came with his left hand, including a drive, spin, then lefty layup that hadn't been seen all year.
South also got as open as he's ever been in his life off a runout, hitting a three to give Cal their largest lead of the evening.
It was South's best performance in a Pac-12 game on the year, with his highest scoring output since the USF game. Cal needs more from him going into their final four games of the season, as South will likely serve in a sixth man role for the remainder of the year.
Other Stats
- Colorado shot 3-20 from 3 in the second half
- If you take out Grant Anticevich's 0-5 from 3 performance, the other Bears went 9-15 from 3
- Bradley was the top Bear in +/-, with a +18 on the evening, while tying his career highs with 26 points and five three-pointers respectively. Lucas Siewart was a -16 for the Buffs, a team low.
- Cal now gets Utah, who they went cold against in Salt Lake City in a 60-45 loss. KenPom gives the Bears a 52% chance of winning, with a 65-64 predicted score.
- This win eclipsed their Pac-12 win totals from the past two years combined. Cal would need five more wins to eclipse their total wins from the last two years, which is unlikely. They need at least one more win to guarantee avoiding a third straight 20-loss season.
Final Thought
It's not quite the same, but you could compare this win to football's upset of Washington State in 2017. The 37-3 win was wholly unexpected, and much more of a beatdown than this game, but there's a handful of similarities:
- Coming off getting destroyed and looking hapless in Seattle
- Taking down a ranked team at home handily thanks to scoring off turnovers
- A player who had struggled over the Pac-12 schedule (Kareem South/Vic Enwere) playing a pivotal role (South with 19 points, Enwere with over 100 yards rushing and a TD)
There's no Ross Bowers flip equivalent, but this game could be looked back on as a harbinger of what's to come. The Bears have to keep growing as a group into the offseason for something like that to come true though.
Mark Fox has come up as a potential Pac-12 coach of the year for helping to drag Cal out of the conference basement. I don't see him winning (give it to Mick Cronin for making UCLA into a nasty defensive unit), but the case can be made, and that hasn't been the case for a while in Berkeley.