It's official, Cal is 0-2 for the first time in 20 years. That's a somewhat unexpected stat for a team that had gone 1-11 in 2013 (but won their second game against Portland State), but it has happened now. Cal's deep passing offense showed up in a 34-32 loss to TCU, but chasing points and run defense breaking down led to the Bears eventual downfall.
There's a handful of finer points to look at, in everything that added up to the loss, despite Chase Garbers having one of his better performances in a Cal uniform.
Points on the Board and Special Teams
There were three separate situations where Cal left points on the board. Those decisions led to the Bears chasing points and were keys in the final deficit being what it was.
4th and 1, TCU 7 - Cal could've gone for the 24 yard field goal, but after an early deep ball to Kekoa Crawford over Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (the longest pass the All-American corner has given up in his career), there was a want to go for more. With Chris Brooks in the game, a block was missed, a defender was in the A gap, and the Bears were stopped at the line of scrimmage. It's not a bad call in the moment, and it's the opposite of what Cal has done in the past (in which the Bears have been more conservative). It didn't work, and therein it's the wrong call.
After the first touchdown pass to Trevon Clark - Slater Zellers had the first bad snap of his career, a low snap leading to a Sheahan bobble and a throwaway. There is an obvious clamor built up over the last year against Cal's special teams, which cost Cal two games a year ago, and while the Bears didn't miss any of their other attempts (and generally had a clean special teams performance otherwise, save one fair catch at their own five on a punt), this is another piece in a pattern for Cal in their ST operations.
After the Daniel Scott pick six - Cal was called for a delay of game penalty prior to the extra point, made the extra point, but offsides was called on TCU. Cal decided to go for it, with a rollout for Chase Garbers getting intercepted by Ochaun Mathis.
All three add up to five points left off (Cal would for two later but Damien Moore would be ruled short, so you could say six) based off coaching decisions. Chasing the points is an analytical decision, with the first chart being pioneered by Dick Vermeil while he was at UCLA in the 70s. Up 12, like Cal was, is one of those situations. These aren't moves made without analytical thought, they just turn into the wrong moves because they don't work. It's worth remembering though that Cal hasn't converted a two-point play since the UCLA game in 2017.
Run Defense, Injuries and Youth
There is a lot being made about Cal's transition from Tim DeRuyter to Peter Sirmon as the primary playcaller in 2020, especially with the Bears struggling against the run and to tackle against TCU. TCU has good skill position players, with Zach Evans being at the top. Cal has struggled during the Wilcox era with running quarterbacks. Some of their worst defensive performances have come due to running QBs and an effective run game.
Oregon 2017: Justin Herbert goes out, Oregon's backups at QB, who can only run, do just that, leading to a 69 yard Oregon touchdown to put the game away
Arizona 2017: Khalil Tate-mania is at its peak, as the Arizona QB rushes for over 100 yards and Cal can't convert a two-point conversion as they looked to end the game
UCLA 2018: Joshua Kelley can't be stopped, though offensive turnovers played a big role here.
Ole Miss 2019: Ole Miss nearly pulls off a comeback after bringing in John Rhys Plumlee, who promptly burns the Cal defense on the ground for a couple big gains
Arizona State 2019: Big gains from Jayden Daniels help to end Cal's 4-0 start
Utah 2019: Everything fell apart on both sides in a 35-0 loss, as the Bears couldn't stop Zack Moss
This hasn't been an issue specific to a coordinator from my point of view, especially when the head coach comes from the defensive side. This week against TCU did show some of the same issues as the ones Cal had against Oregon State a year ago, with younger personnel in more struggled.
Cal's two young ILBs, Mo Iosefa and Femi Oladejo, missed a handful of tackles despite being in the right place. Cal's young line group didn't get the needed push against an experienced TCU offensive line. In a change from past years, Cal has more players that they can use in relief, the majority of those players are in their first two or three years in the program, and with last year being what it was, there isn't that much game experience among the group. That can lead to what Saturday ended up being, with bad angles taken (especially on Evans late first half touchdown run, Cal was focused on the pass and didn't play their run responsibilities). This is all correctable, but there's reliance on Cal's staff's ability to develop young players quickly, if they want to make a turnaround quickly.
Passing Game
There's a lot I've said about Chase Garbers from this week, as Garbers had more time to throw (Cal in particular did a good job against Ochaun Mathis, whose name didn't come up much for TCU) and used that time to go deep. In particular, a deep ball to Jeremiah Hunter sticks out, being placed into the hands of Cal's sophomore wideout between two defenders.
Garbers' over the top throwing in the first half opened up some holes in the second half in the run game, including some for Garbers to scramble through. The long runs by the Cal quarterback don't happen if TCU isn't worried about the deep ball. It's a clear sign of improvement that Garbers threw well against a defense known for two-deep coverage, a week after struggling with it against Nevada.
Other Assorted Notes and Thoughts:
- Lu-Magia Hearns appears to be the fourth corner Cal will go to behind the starting trio of Gamble, Drayden and Anusiem. The former De La Salle standout flashed in fall camp, and has moved ahead of a number of players who had been there before him.
- Curious to see if Kyle Smith can get into the ILB rotation this week. He has been a solid tackler in Cal's scrimmage situations and if missed tackles continue, he would be worth throwing in.
- Cal showed something interesting on the touchdown pass to Nikko Remigio, with Tommy Christakos lining up in the slot on his sole rep of the game. This is a position Christakos excelled from at Chaparral HS in Arizona.
