MBB Notebook: Improbable Mountain Split, LA Schools Come to Haas

The mountain trip is one of the toughest in the Pac-12 basketball schedule. If it's not just the elevation and travel, it's the fact that Colorado and Utah have two of the longest tenured head coaches in the conference.

Again without Matt Bradley, Cal played two different games against the mountain schools. The first against Colorado (and most of the first half against Utah), the Bears were plagued by a number of the same problems, namely three point defense and defense in transition. Colorado finished 12-21 from beyond the arc (57.1%) as the Bears struggled in their rotations and got beat in transition repeatedly.

While Cal has played the slowest tempo on offense in conference play, that label hasn't applied to their defense, as opposing teams have played at the fastest tempo on offense against the Bears. When teams are making shots like Colorado was Thursday, that is a recipe for a blowout.

The Utah game looked to be going the same way. Cal's offense was cold and Utah, while not shooting the lights out like Colorado, was doing more than enough to stay ahead, including an end of half outlet to layup to beat the buzzer. Something changed at the half though (not just the side of the court teams were shooting on, though one side saw teams shooting in the 30s, the other in the 50s).

Makale Foreman hit a 3 coming out of the break to cut the Utah lead back to 9. Jarred Hyder made a couple of tough layups. Ryan Betley hit a 3 and got fouled on another, making all three free throws. Andre Kelly got a three point play. Shots stopped falling for the Utes, who repeatedly turned the ball over, and after a Lars Thiemann layup, with 12:37 left in the game, Cal had taken a lead, 43-42.

That stretch saw Utah shoot 2-8 with 5 turnovers (they wen 4-4 from the line). Cal went 7-11 (5-7 from the FT line) with two turnovers. A 21-8 run gave the Bears a lead, and with Grant Anticevich catching fire and scoring 10 points over a stretch of 2:42, the Bears had a 10 point lead. It was one they wouldn't relinquish.

Admittedly, Utah was the worst three point shooting team in conference play, which made their 1-12 shooting performance from beyond the arc in the second half less surprising, but this was the first game Cal had in a while where a bunch of 3s didn't bury them or nearly bury them. It may not prove that Cal can defend on a consistent basis, but it is a reminder that this Cal team has enough offense to make comebacks, even without Bradley in the lineup. They'll need it in a homestand against the LA schools, who are at the top of the conference.

Other Notes

- Kelly is shooting a sterling 70.9% in conference play, as the junior from Stockton has scored in double figures in every game since Matt Bradley's injury. He's doing it mainly on post ups, layups, and dunks, with the occasional jumper thrown in, but while he doesn't take too many shots, he's added to his post arsenal. Playing on a court named after the godfather of post footwork, Pete Newell, Kelly has added a couple counter-moves to his power, including a step-through and up and under. The junior from Stockton tends to go with a straight hook over one of his shoulders, but he's been avoiding offensive fouls more frequently with some precision under the basket.

- Freshman Jalen Celestine continues to get more reps with Bradley out, playing 18 minutes against Colorado and 19 against Utah. Celestine's length and shooting ability has gotten him more playing time over the past couple of weeks, though he's still working on his defensive rotations

- Kuany Kuany got the start against Utah and had a few early turnover struggles. He did hit a 3 in the second half to open up the Cal lead to four. The sophomore forward's length and shooting ability is especially important for the Bears this week, as they go against the tallest team in the country, USC.

- Bill Walton was on Saturday's TV broadcast, and he shouted out a handful of Berkeley landmarks, Jerry Garcia, and Cal athletic director Jim Knowlton. Walton did make an observation about Ryan Betley that rings true, that he's similar to Grant Mullens, who played for the Bears in Cuonzo Martin's final year at Cal. Like Mullens, Betley can catch fire quickly, but probably isn't the primary scorer on a team. Betley shoots more than Mullens, who was often the third or fourth option behind Jabari Bird, Ivan Rabb and Charlie Moore in his sole season in Berkeley.

- Anticevich's 14 points and 7 rebounds Saturday were the most he has had in both stats since his emergency appendectomy, as the senior from Sydney is starting to get some of his conditioning back.

At Home: 5-2 (average score of 70.7-65.6, margin of +5.1)

On the Road: 1-6 (average score of , margin of 63.7-75.4, margin of -11.7)

Neutral Site: 1-0 (86-61 win over Northwest at Oregon State)

Injuries:

Matt Bradley (ankle) - Out for another week at least, still recovering from an ankle injury suffered against Oregon State. Bradley continues to be on the sidelines, encouraging teammates through games.

Per Game Stat Leaders:

Points: Bradley, 17.8

Rebounds: Kelly, 6.0

Assists: Brown: 3.8

Steals: Brown, 1.8

Blocks: Anticevich, .64

Minutes: Betley 32.1

Field Goal % (minimum 5 attempts per game): Kelly, 61.5%

3pt% (minimum 2 attempts per game): Betley, 38.2%

Free Throw% (minimum 1 attempt per game): Foreman, 86.7%

Vs. 24th ranked UCLA, Thursday January 21st, 2021

Where: Haas Pavilion, Berkeley, CA

Time: 6 PM

TV: ESPN U

Radio: KGO 810

Kenpom Prediction: 72-64 Cal loss, 22% chance of a win

Vs. USC, Saturday January 23rd, 2021

Where: Haas Pavilion

Time: 5 PM

TV: Pac-12 Network

Radio: KGO 810

Kenpom Prediction: 74-63 Cal loss, 17% chance of a win

Cal has already played UCLA once this season, a 76-56 loss in Pauley Pavilion where the Bruins shot the lights out. In particular, Tyger Campbell stressed the Cal defense, with 12 assists in addition to 11 points of his own. The Bruins have lost one game since, a loss to Ohio State in Cleveland, and have been undefeated in conference play so far.

They're doing it without Chris Smith, who tore his ACL against Utah. Smith put up 21 points against the Bears the first go-around and had come back to the Bruins after withdrawing from the 2020 NBA draft.

This year, UCLA has been in the mold of the typical Mick Cronin team. They don't play fast. They make other teams work for opportunities, and play decent three point defense. They're the top 3-point shooting team in the conference, aided by the play of Campbell as a set-up man. Jaime Jaquez, Jules Bernard, and Chris Singleton can all knock down 3s when given the opportunity. They rebound well, they don't foul, and they've been thoroughly consistent throughout the Pac-12 schedule.

Likely Starters

G Tyger Campbell 5'11", 180 lbs

G Jules Bernard 6'6" 205 lbs

G Johnny Juzang 6'6" 210 lbs

G/F Jaime Jaquez 6'6" 220 lbs

F Cody Riley 6'9" 255 lbs

Key Backups

G David Singleton 6'4" 210 lbs

F Jalen Hill 6'10" 245 lbs

G/F Jake Kyman 6'6" 220 lbs

Player to Watch - Campbell

Cal saw a player like Campbell in McKinley Wright, who did an excellent job against the Bears last Thursday. Campbell is a capable scorer, but his passing provides the biggest challenge for Cal, as the Bears need to figure out their defensive rotations, especially against a UCLA team that is shooting 44% from 3 in conference play. Campbell could exacerbate Cal's struggles.

USC, as said earlier, has the distinction of being the tallest team in the country, with a starting lineup that boasts four players at 6'7" or taller. They're led by the Mobleys, Isaiah and Evan, as Isaiah stayed at USC in order to play with his brother.

USC has the distinction of being the top defensive team in the Pac-12, with teams shooting 42.3% from inside the arc against the Trojans in conference play. The length USC leads to blocks, as they're the top shot blocking team in the conference as well. The size has made them effective on the interior, as they're the top shooting team inside the arc as well.

The makeup of this USC team has moved toward a more transfer focused group. Eaddy, White and Peterson came from Santa Clara, Utah Valley, and Rice respectively, with Goodwin coming from Wofford. They don't shoot 3s at the rate UCLA does, but Noah Bauman, Peterson and Eaddy are all capable shooters.

Likely Starters

G Tahj Eaddy 6'2" 165 lbs

G Isaiah White 6'7" 210 lbs

G Drew Peterson 6'8" 195 lbs

F Isaiah Mobley 6'10" 235 lbs

C Evan Mobley 7' 215 lbs

Key Backups

F Max Agbonkpolo 6'9" 190 lbs

F Chevez Goodwin 6'9" 225 lbs

G Ethan Anderson 6'1" 215 lbs

G Noah Bauman 6'6" 215 lbs

Player to Watch - Evan Mobley

A seven-footer with an already polished game, Mobley is the prototype of the modern 'five' in basketball. He rebounds well, blocks shots, is a fluid athlete, runs the floor and can occasionally step out for 3s. He'll be an interesting cover for Cal, as while the Bears have some size in Kelly, Thiemann and DJ Thorpe, the combination of Mobley's length and mobility makes him a difficult player to check.