The California Golden Bears (4-7, 2-6 Pac-12) host the No. 17-ranked UCLA Bruins (8-3, 5-3) on Black Friday as the season likely concludes for Cal.
There is, technically, still a chance for the Bears to go bowling. It's been noted multiple places that currently just 74 of the 82 slots allowed for bowl-eligible football teams have been filled (teams that win at least 6 games). This means that a selection of 5-7 teams could potentially get the call to make their way up to bowl season. The criteria for such a selection? A school’s academic progress rate (or APR) is the determining factor.
Cal is ranked tied at 49th in this metric (Alabama is No. 1 if you were curious) and would need a number of schools to lose in order to claim one of the eight theoretical slots remaining.
So, let’s have a look at who could make it in over the Bears ...
(* denotes a relevant team that is favored in their matchup).
The 5-6 schools that can become bowl eligible with a win or that will get in before Cal IF they were to drop to 5-7:
Rice, T-5 in APR. Travels to 6-5 North Texas
Miami (FL), T-32 in APR. Hosts 7-4 Pitt
Missouri, T-27 in APR. Hosts 6-5 Arkansas
Michigan State, T27 in APR. Travels to 9-2 Penn State (No. 11)
Auburn, T27th in APR. Travels to 9-2 Alabama (No. 8)
Georgia Tech T-37th in APR. Travels to 11-0 Georgia (No. 1)
Here are the 4-7 schools who need to lose for Cal to have a shot at the postseason:
*UNLV, T-21st in APR. Hosts 2-9 Nevada
Indiana, T-46th in APR. Hosts 7-4 Purdue
Iowa State, T-17th in APR. Travels to 11-0 TCU (No. 4)
Additional 5-6 teams that are below Cal in APR BUT can achieve bowl eligibility with a win:
*Louisiana, travels to 4-7 Texas State.
Vanderbilt, hosts 9-2 Tennessee (No. 9)
*Buffalo (5-5), hosts 4-7 Kent State
*Southern Mississippi, travels to 4-7 ULM
Florida Atlantic, hosts 7-4 Western Kentucky
*UAB, travels to 3-8 Louisiana Tech
UTEP, travels to 9-2 UTSA
This means that there are a few pathways to bowl eligibility for Cal -- but it's not totally impossible.
With every team in the first group already ahead of Cal for one of those eight spots, that leaves just two potential entry points for the Bears.
The Bears would need all but one team in groups 2 and 3 to lose, which includes favorites Louisiana, Southern Miss, UAB, Buffalo and UNLV.
Oh, and Cal needs to beat UCLA, obviously.
So, it doesn’t look great.
But, beating an in-state Power 5 program is always going to be significant. There is absolutely a lot for Cal to play for Friday regardless.
Let's take a closer look at the matchup ...