Five Things: Washington State
Well, what a week to restore faith in the Wilcox train, which had far, far too many people jump off the bandwagon after a 0-3 stretch this year. Frustration was fair. Losing the faith, probably not.
The Bears beat UW basically by winning all five things -- and even then, it took all that to eke out a two point margin:
1) Moved the ball consistently - kind of, so a push here. Decent amount of yardage on first down, enough third downs to make a difference against a vastly more talented defense, though 4.0 YPP won't get you the win most weeks.
2) New Look Line - push as well. UW had more than their fair share of pass rush and general Havoc, but when the time counted, the Bears really stepped up and made it happen, especially in the 4 minute offense.
3) Pressure on Browning - WIN.
4) Extra possessions - Two turnovers, WIN.
5) Special teams - "Peyton Henry averages a touchback only 37.8% of the time, so the return opportunities will be there." BANG
Week: 3-0-2
Overall: 20-16-4 (5-0 when victorious in 5 Things)
1. Gardner Minshew -
After anticipating the Cougars might take a step back by transitioning away from Luke Falk, it's become pretty definitively clear that Mike Leach could plug in me to run Four Verts and Mesh 40 times a game and still get 30 PPG. Christ.
America's next favorite mustachioed signal-caller is averaging a 26:6 TD:INT ratio, and over 3000 yards at the season's halfway mark, and his worst game since a week two clunker was a 39 of 51, 323 yard, 4 TD, INT performance hosting Oregon.
The key this week will be to get pressure with only four, because Minshew knows where to go with the football when a defender is missing, how to get it out, and will be able to spot or predict where it will be coming from -- or at least has so far -- when blitzed, he's averaging 60 of 93, 672 yards (7.2 YPA), 9:3 TD:INT, 84.7 PFF grade, which are barely down from his non-blitz numbers.
When generally under pressure, he's taken his only 6 sacks of the year, his YPA drops to 6.1, and he has a much more normal 4:2 TD:INT ratio.
2. Our pace, not theirs -
This is another game where Cal wants to grind it out and reduce variance, much like the last two. Don't get caught into playing the Washington State style, which involves forcing the Bears to score a whole damn bunch of points. This is not the Cal ethos at the moment. Run. Keep running. And when you think you're done...do it again.
3. James Williams vs ...whoever --
Part of why Wazzu doesn't run the ball is because as we ourselves know, a 3-4 yard pass to them is worth the same thing, and most of those 3-4 yard passes find their way into the hands of running back James Williams, who is 2nd on the team with 48 catches -- only three behind the leader, Davontavean Martin.
28 more passes have been hauled in running back Max Borghi, and both are similarly sized, 200 pound jitterbugs.
If I'm Wazzu, I try to split out often enough to force a matchup with Williams on Weaver or Kunaszyk, both of whom are game in the pass defense department, but still vulnerable on occasion -- Kuna was in coverage on the 41 yard McGrew reception that would be UW's longest of the game last week, and has been bit against UCLA and BYU too.
If I'm Cal, I'll probably be in nickel or dime most of the time anyway, so I try to find a way to win with just five man box and stick Drayden, Davis, Hawkins, or Beck on that guy.
4. Third and long
Williams and Borghi are only part of how WSU has one of the most consistently successful offenses in the country this year, despite minimal explosiveness.
Minshew also rarely gets sacked -- 1.4% on the year -- but together, these combined with high accuracy, low risk runs, keeps the chains moving. Per Bill Connelly's data at Footballstudyhall, WSU has only faced 3rd and long 38.7% of the time, among the lowest in the nation, and in those situations, they are successful at 26.8% of the time. That's the best chance for Cal to get off the field, obviously, but managing to get that far at all will be key. Can they knock the Cougars off-schedule?
5. Pelluer versus Laird
Washington State's defense is headed by senior Peyton Pelluer, who not only has the team lead in sacks, but TFLs and run stuffs too. If you remember what Colin Schooler was able to do against the Bears a few weeks ago, you'll know that a single linebacker, if left unblocked or unchecked, will ruin the offense's best laid plans at the first and second levels. With the line continuing to come together -- and making again, barely enough plays last week -- what happens here will have deep implications for Cal's chances of victory.