Five Things: UCLA

FIRST OFF

Five things never lies.

1) No Hangovers - W - Not for the team coming off of USC, not for me the morning after we beat Stanford.

2) Scoring touchdowns - W - We got three, they got two. In a more serious way of thinking about it, we cashed in our scoring opportunities, and David Shaw played it safe for a field goal late.

3) These ain't those cards - W - Success here was just in taking advantage of the fact that their defense was not as dominant as usual. We outgained them on a per play basis, so you gotta feel good about that.

4) Run the Ball - DRAW - Chase did. The rest of the team made it work.

5) Appropriate Fear - W - In last week's column, I made the point that the Takers were expected to step up and play better, even though Stanford was a much weaker skill position group. Two interceptions later...

Win five things, you win the game; and you know there was a part of me that did not want to send in Five Things this week for UCLA, because nothing matters.

1) Pride - The Bears are going bowling. They are mathematically eliminated from the North, and were weeks ago. UCLA is not going bowling. They are mathematically eliminated from the South, and were weeks ago.

That makes this game, in some ways, very similar to the one that closed the 2016 season, and eventually, Sonny Dykes' tenure at Cal -- ultimately insignificant in the grand scheme of things, except to improve conference and post-season positioning, and as a penultimate moment for the seniors. UCLA has even less to play for than Cal does, since they don't even have the former going for them.

But they haven't ever beaten UCLA under Justin Wilcox, and they should certainly remember the ignominy of losing last year in the fashion that they did, at home. I guess that's all the significance you really need.

(I wasn't sure where to put this factoid, but it should be noted that we are still lower ranked than UCLA in SP+, and are the worst Power 5 team to qualify for a bowl. They slightly favored in the Connelly projections.)

2) Throw. A lot. -- A few years ago, the UCLA secondary was headed up by Jaleel Wadood, Adarius Pickett, Nate Meadors, and, well...these are not those guys. They haven't been for awhile:

2015: 1st (meaning lowest) in passer rating allowed, 1st in yards per game allowed, 1st in Y/Attempt

2016: 2nd in passer rating allowed, 3rd in yards per game allowed, T-1 in Y/Attempt

2017: 7th in passer rating allowed, 2nd in yards per game allowed, 6th in Y/Attempt

2018: 10th in passer rating allowed, 9th in yards per game allowed, 11th in Y/Attempt <- Chip Kelly era begins

2019: 12th in passer rating allowed, 12th in yards per game allowed, 12th in Y/Attempt

Now, I can add more ugly metrics to illustrate this further, but you get the point. The guys should throw, and often, a task that will get easier if Kekoa Crawford is indeed available.

3) SPECIAL TEAMS - Not only because UCLA's comeback against WSU was jumpstarted by shoddy ST play, but like, because they were the worst unit on the team last week and nearly cost the game. There are already some dangerous returners on the UCLA side, with two touchdowns this year in that game alone. (Said touchdown skew the punt return numbers, but for what it's worth, they are the #1 punt return team in the conference for that reason.)

4) Tackle Joshua Kelley - He's not been as good as last year from a statistical standpoint, but he's still very much the same threat breaking tackles:

2018: 5.5 YPC; 2.85 Yards after contact, 33 avoided tackles on 225 carries

2019: 4.7 YPC; 2.80 Yards after contact, 38 avoided tackles on 210 carries

I trust that this point doesn't need any more elaboration than that.

5) Contain DTR - After two disastrous attempts against Jayden Daniels and Kedon Slovis this season, plus the near disaster against Ole Miss, it's fair to suggest that this defense can struggle a little bit against mobile, dual threat quarterbacks, who end up altering normally very sound, fundamental principles DeRuyter/Wilcox have built in. The Bears have some options if they want to get more speed onto the field for containment/pursuit -- playing small or going to 2-4-5 looks if they don't want to take Weaver off, but it's safe to say that this area will become a lot more important if Ashtyn Davis doesn't play.