Five Things: Oregon State
Welcome back to Five Things, which, when we last left, was one of the rare instances when the Bears won the majority of my identified categories, but lost the game outright. (I had a feeling that might happen, and losing your center halfway through the game only makes it tougher.)
1. Generate Turnovers - W - Yep.
2. Bounce Back Emotionally - W - No sense of drop off here.
3. Protect Devon Modster - L - Outside of that early touchdown drive, nothing going on the offense.
4. Strength On Strength in Passing Situations - W - 0-3 on 3rd and long.
5. Play with Nothing to Lose - W - Even one trick play!
4-1 (4-1 when the Bears go at least .500 in 5 things)
1. Limit...Efficiency? -- This Oregon State team is starting to develop a really fearsome offense under Jonathan Smith, rolling up to #21 in the country in offensive SP+ (thought about another way, they're about as good at offense as Cal is on defense.) But what's interesting is that the Beavers recorded this mark on the back of consistent gains, moreso than their explosiveness -- they gain successful yardage (meaning 5+ on first down, 70% of the yards required to convert by second down, then 3rd or 4th down conversion) on almost half their plays, both on the ground and through the air.
The names are somewhat familiar -- Jake Luton did not start last year, but Isaiah Hodgins (13.90 yards per catch ranks 17th in the conference), Artavis Pierce (leads league in 10+ and 20+ runs, OSU is middle of the pack in this category overall) both did. Knocking them off schedule will be crucial, especially in getting those 0 to -1 yard rushes that have occasionally been an issue all year, especially since the Bears lack depth on defense.
2. Bye Week? -- I urged everyone not to rush to judgment on Devon Modster regardless of what happened against Oregon, and lo and behold, I failed yet once again -- but in saying that, I had expected he might struggle against the Duck secondary, and wanted to remind everyone (myself included) to focus on what he did after an extra week of preparation.
Well, this is that week, and the Beavers are by far the weakest defense that the Bears will face the rest of the way. For this week at least, Modster should be graded how we would have Chase Garbers, really -- do enough to win the game and definitely don't lose it, flashing a little to make the Bears feel more settled. Over the course of a full season, what we've seen from Modster so far might result in a 5 or 6 win team. The fact that the Bears have four in the bank already bodes well for exceeding that number, and anything he can show beyond that might re-open up discussions of an 8 win season. At the moment, the numbers no longer suggest that that's in our favor, and won't barring a win over Utah and/or WSU.
3. Stay healthy- Potentially, the Bears will be getting Mike Saffell back, as well as Marcel Dancy, Tevin Paul and Valentino Daltoso. All are big pieces for success, but with my recent discovery that the Bears have a second bye week -- in my defense, they've had the bye at the end of the season sometimes, which makes it easy to forget -- one of the major goals from this one, which should be a win, is to not make any of these injuries worse ahead of the Washington State game.
That they can't afford any more injuries to the quarterback position either, obviously.
4. Establish Some Run - After two strong weeks to start the season statistically, the Bears have largely faded on the ground, due to a combination of tough competition, injuries, and now unfortunate quarterback circumstance.
So, while this is related somewhat to point 2, the real question is: can they get some traction against the conference's worst rushing defense, allowing 205 yards per game? Can they at least average 4.0 YPC? Chris Brown hasn't done that since Week 2.
5. Begin Rolling - In year three of the traditional coaching cycle, teams are supposed to win close, but boy, wouldn't that be nice to ignore tradition? The Bears haven't put away anyone this year -- not even UC Davis or North Texas -- and sure, part of that is rooted in the team's identity, which isn't built to do so. Fine.
How about just starting the second half of the year off right, following a pair of tough losses? Yes, it's true that the Pac-12 is most likely out of play now, since Oregon would have to lose three games to even make it a conversation again -- but there is plenty worth playing for, including the possibility of a winning record against the California schools for the first time in God knows how long..
And that whole Axe thing, too. That starts here.