Five Things: Oregon
This week, we look back at five things from a week ago, and five things that are important for Cal in their road contest against Oregon.
Last Time....
1. Pressure the Kid - L - He didn't explode through the pass game, but Daniels never looked remotely uncomfortable.
2. Slow Down Eno Benjamin and Brandon Aiyuk - L - 3.7 YPC looks good until you realize that ASU controlled the pace of the game behind him anyway. Aiyuk was a non-factor, but he didn't have to be.
3. Continue The Chase - W - On his way to absolutely shredding them before the injury. Sigh. (So an L)
4. Establish the Run Game - L - The first drive of the second half was fantastic. ASU adjusted after that, though, and Modster will have to show more over the next couple weeks to give Chris Brown and Marcel Dancy a chance at things again.
5. Pack Cal Memorial - W - Students came. Alums too.
1-4
Well, this is gonna be a toughie, and I think it's possible the Bears could win five things this week and still lose the game...but if you ask me how they might win, this might be it:
1. Generate Turnovers
This is always going to be written in a game where Cal is an underdog. It's going to especially be written when the Ducks are favored by nearly 3 TDs (17.5 at time of writing). Standard underdog gamescript here means they'll need to maximize possessions and generate extras. The problem? Herbert is 14:0 TD:INT this year (backup Tyler Shough is 2:0 as well), and Oregon's only lost two fumbles out of their five on the year...which means this is gonna be easier said than done, and the Takers are currently down at 85th in the country with only two picks this season.
When Cal last matched up with Oregon, Herbert was kept fairly in check for only 255 yards and 2 TDs, with most of that going to Dillon Mitchell. This year's Ducks are a bit more balanced in terms of target distribution -- Jacob Breeland, Jaylon Redd, and Johnny Johnson are leading the way, rather than just Mitchell -- and they're likely getting back two more guys this week in Mycah Pittman and Brenden Schooler to back things up.
2. Bounce Back Emotionally
Last week was as disappointing as disappointing losses come, and coming out to be competitive -- at the minimum -- will say a lot about whether the Bears have grown from 2018, when they erased a 3-0 start with 3 losses in a row: a blowout loss to Oregon, a close loss to Arizona and a complete disaster against then winless UCLA. Evan Weaver made this a point of emphasis at Friday's postgame, essentially challenging the team to get ready to go back to work. That work starts on Saturday, with the bye week telling.
3. Keep Modster Safe
Last Friday should be the worst Devon Modster looks. I write should here because he's headed into a rough first start: on the road at Autzen, in front of a defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown in three straight games, is holding opposing passers to 4.8 YPA, and a passer rating of 88 (both marks are 4th best in the country). Granted, they haven't really faced a top flight passer all year either, but it still wouldn't be a surprise to see some struggles again, and in fact, it might be understandable if Modster doesn't blow the doors off against a statistically dominant Duck team. I've argued that what he does against Oregon State will be much more telling of what the team can do the rest of the way, so it's really important not to overreact to whatever level of performance he does put up.
The game plan should call for a lot of safe throws, stuff that builds his confidence early, and then trying to get some breathing room for Chris Brown and Marcel Dancy, as mentioned above.
After Modster's head will be the likes of Troy Dye (11 total pressures on 26 pass rush snaps, according to PFF), defensive linemen Drayton Carlberg (5 pressures on 92 pass rush snaps) and Jordon Scott (6 pressurse on 81 pass rush spans), as well as the immaculately named DE rotation of Gus Cumberlander (9 pressures, 76 pass rush snaps) and Kayvon Thibodeaux (5 pressures, 55 pass rush snaps).
Let's just say it was a good week to get all five starting OL back last week.
4. Strength on Strength at 3rd and Long?
Unlike the traditional Oregon team, this year's Ducks are fairly pedestrian so far as rushers -- they have rotated fairly liberally between Verdell, Dye, Darrian Felix, Cyrus Habibi-Likio, and even included Sean Dollars into the rotation at times -- all of whom have combined for an offense that ranks 119th in rushing SP+, a per play measure of explosiveness and efficiency. Since that stat is normalized for quality of competition, it is worth noting that there are struggles here, and among Pac-12 backs with 25 total carries or more, PFF rates the combination of Dye and Verdell 21st and 22nd in the Pac-12 in PFF Rush grades.
There are 23 total qualifying backs with at least 25 carries.
So, that would seem to be a big part of the game plan on Saturday -- force the Ducks into some third and longs.
The problem? They are converting passing downs at a 40.4% clip, and are better while passing the ball (35th in the country in Passing Downs SP+) than they are running it, or on standard downs situations. In fact, they are successful 45% of the time on third and long, which is simply absurd.
But this might have to just be plan, though. Force them into the Takers, who are 22nd in the country in SP+ in passing situations, which, while slightly down from last year so far, is the best strength remaining.
5. Play With Nothing To Lose
However remote the chances, it's important to note that there is a chance to take control of the North here. The Bears would effectively be in control of their own destiny if they pulled the upset, and you'd like to see them call the game accordingly -- with the attitude of winning, trick plays and all. (Another standard in the underdog gamescript, although most underdog gamescripts don't usually come with a +17.5 in Vegas.)