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football Edit

Five Things: Illinois

It's five things time, for the last time this decade, as Cal heads to Levi's Stadium Monday to take on Illinois.

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1. One Last Ride

It might be cheating to put three or four different items here, but that theme is extremely prominent as we enter the Redbox Bowl:

There's the last ride of Evan Weaver, the owner of the Cal single season tackle record, who will be looking to add the national single season tackle record to his name. Only 20 to go!

There's the last ride of the seniors, and particularly the Takers, who will be missing Ashtyn Davis, out with a surgical procedure, and Trey Turner, for an undisclosed reason.

There is also the last ride of both Beau Baldwin and Nick Edwards, who get to coach the bowl game before moving on to Cal Poly. (It may not be a popular sentiment, but now that every member of the 2020 class is in, I feel like some gratitude is owed to him -- without a contract and his future clearly looming, Baldwin still helped put together a class that did not fracture without him, presumably in part by selling them on the university itself. To this, we should once again note that he has done some of his best work this season. Unfortunate that it did not happen any earlier, and that he was always battling uphill against injury.)

Before the season, I wanted to emphasize that this is the last time the roster in its current form would exist, whether that was for the players, or the staff. This is one of the most likeable Cal squads in ages, so it's cool to get one more with them.

2. Ball! Security!

The key to Illinois' success this year is the same one that powered last year's Cal team: turnovers, with a margin of +11 on the year. During the Illini's 4 game winning streak that helped them rally for bowl elgibility, they tallied +9, in particular, and although these Bears have committed only 13 turnovers themselves on the year, it'll still be crucial to continue that season-long trend.

Of note: Illini linebacker Jake Hansen has forced 7! fumbles on the year (although he appears to be questionable for this one), with DB Stanley Green and LB/leading tackler Dele Harding chipping in 3 each themselves, while the interceptions are a bit more evenly spread out through the secondary.

3. The Old Guys...

Illinois has some familiar names dotting the roster in Josh Imatorbhebhe, Camilo Eifler, Oluwole Betiku, and Trevon Sidney. Several of these guys were the result of successful grad transfers, pulled through in part by former Cal DL-now Illinois DL coach Austin Clark, and at Illinois, Imatorbhebhe has blossomed in particular -- he had a grand total of 2 catches for 11 yards in his USC career, compared to 33 for 634 in his single season of work as an Illini. Both figures lead the team by a significant amount.

Betiku, who also came from USC, has rallied for 8 sacks, while the rest of the team has 13 combined. Pass protection improved significantly down the stretch for the Bears, but expect this to remain a point of focus heading into the Redbox.

4. Quarterback uncertainty...?

It would be easy to dismiss the Illini after a late two game losing streak, including a season ending loss to Northwestern, but it should be noted that those defeats came without Brandon Peters, who still needs to be cleared from a concussion. If he can't go, it'll be redshirt freshman Matt Robinson, who threw for one touchdown on 79 attempts this season (backup duties for the Minnesota, Michigan, and Northwestern games -- all losses).In each of those games, Robinson was pressured on about a 1/3rd of his snaps, and rarely blitzed, which resulted in these numbers

(Credit to Pro Football Focus)

The low completion percentage even when not blitzed suggests the Bears may be able to get by with just their base rushers -- the three DL and whichever 4th guy they want to throw in, with an occasional sprinkling of a 5th. This gameplan gets even easier to execute when you realize that Illinois has one of the weaker wide receiver corps Cal's faced this season:

-Imatorbhebhe ranks 13th in the Big 10 in yards per game; after that are Donny Navarro and Daniel Barker at 42nd and 49th, respectively

-Imatorbhebhe's 57.6 yards per game did not qualify for the top 100 NCAA leaders in YPG. Here is a list of receivers the Bears faced who recorded more than that:

Michael Pittman

Brandon Aiyuk

Isaiah Hodgins

Brandon Arconado

Easop Winston

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Tyler Vaughns

Hunter Bryant

Johnny Johnson

Dezmon Patmon

Kyle Phillips

-Of course, WR situations are entirely QB dependent, and we've spoken some about that earlier. When isolating for just the play of the receivers themselves, per PFF's per play grading on Power-5 receivers who got at least 32 targets, you get these results:

Imatorbhebhe - 137th (64.5 offensive grade); (65.9 receiving grade)

Navarro - 148th (62.2 offensive grade); (60.7 receiving grade)

Smalling - 148th (62.2 offensive grade); (60.8 receiving grade)

There were no other qualifiers on the Illinois side.

(For the curious, the only two qualifiers on the Cal side, using the same metrics were Nikko Remigio at 152nd - 61.1 offensive grade; 61.9 receiving grade. Jordan Duncan will not be playing in the bowl game, and Kekoa Crawford didn't receive enough targets to make this list. Basically, you're dealing with a receiving corps that's comparable to Cal's, without the uptick in production late like the one the Bears got. That means it's a winnable matchup.)

5. Take Care of Business

Cal is a touchdown favorite against a Power 5 team, something that they've never been this season, essentially playing at home against an Illinois squad that barely squeaked into the postseason whatsoever. They should win and head into next season with some momentum...which is the most dangerous thing to hear of all when it comes to the Bears.

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