Five Things: Colorado
Weird week for Five Things and all, since Cal got themselves an unexpected -- arguably unpreferable -- bye week, so we won't have any results from last week to go over.
Instead, we'll discuss the key things for what is effectively Senior Day this week, even though we'll be back again the next.
1) Hold Ground
The obvious news of the week is the firing of Colorado head coach Mike McIntyre, as the Buffaloes attempt to secure a sixth win to qualify for post-season play. Losers of six straight after a 5-0 start, this has traditionally been a move that spikes the level of motivation for a flagging team, and Cal will need to be on guard for an extra feisty Colorado effort.
Yet, had they been playing with McIntyre at the helm, this space would have also included something about the players playing for their coach and what not too, and trying to save his job with a potential win.
What I'm trying to say is, regardless of who's up front, this is not a Colorado team playing out the string just yet. Don't take them lightly. I don't expect the staff will do so.
2) No Complacency
On the opposite side of this factor are the Bears, who have already locked up a bowl bid of their own, and have only positioning to play for. It would be easy for them to look ahead to Stanford for next week, for them to feel themselves for too long in the aftermath of USC, or to mail it in in hopes of going to Vegas.
Not that this has ever been the case under Wilcox -- again, with one exception -- but how ready the team is on Saturday, or what they're playing for, is worth keeping an eye on. The type of program we want to be requires a standard of excellence imposed upon ourselves from within, rather than from the outside.
3) Laviska Shenault Jr.
Is it surprising that Shenault is here? No.
Does he warrant a mention on Five Things? Well, yeah. No matter how obvious the criterion, how well the Bears play against Shenault will end up being a big decider in the game.
Some Shenault statistics, per PFF and Connelly:
-81.6% catch rate (80 on 98 targets; ~9 targets per game)
-603 of 954 yards are after catch (3rd in conference for YAC per reception)
-27 avoided tackles (next highest receiver is KD Nixon with 10)
-41 catches have gone for 1st downs (next highest is KD Nixon with 26)
-87.7 grade on PFF as an offensive player, 90.1 as a receiver (next highest are Travon McMillian at 71.7; Beau Bisharat at 73.8)
In essence, he's their best player, their most reliable player, their most explosive player, and oh by the way, the top rated wide receiver in the conference, just a shade higher than N'Keal Harry.
(Below those two are JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Dillon Mitchell, one of whom we have yet to play, and the other who gave Cal absolute fits. How the Bears decide to matchup is up to them, but they haven't traditionally moved the corners around too much this year.)
4) A vulnerable secondary
With the week off, the Bears will get to return Moe Ways and Jordan Duncan, likely Vic Wharton as well, who will face off against a gettable secondary. Now, that's not to expect Chase Garbers to put up Jared Goff or Patrick Mahomes type numbers -- but it should be of huge assistance for him to throw to those guys against a statistically mediocre Colorado secondary. (Colorado's best rated pass defenders are the linebackers.)
Delrick Adams, Nick Fisher, Evan Worthington, and Dante Wigley have allowed 11 touchdowns to 4 interceptions on them, and all are allowing 79.9 or better passer ratings when QBs are throwing in their direction.
(For comparison:
Bynum: 69.8 passer rating, 3 TD: 2 INT
Davis: 72.3 passer rating, 2 TD: 2 INT
Hawkins: 14.8 passer rating, 0 TD: 3 INT
Hicks/Drayden: 102.4/86.3, 2 TD: 1 INT
Beck: 44.1 passer rating, 0 TD: 3 INT)
5) QB?
Thankfully, this week, it is not our guy on the list. The debate is long settled -- even if it is later than it should have been -- and Chase Garbers is definitely, truly, completely QB1.
But on the other sideline, it's still worth watching whether or not Steven Montez is ready to go after spraining his ankle in Colorado's 30-7 loss last week. Both backups are much, much more beatable, obviously.