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Five Things: Big Game Take Two

Since Nam has noted that the five things for this week are basically the same as what they were two weeks ago for when this game was originally supposed to happen, I’ve decided to edit them a bit and add a bit more commentary over the top to make it make sense. Anyway, let’s see the scoreboard from a week ago

1) Hold Ground - I’d say they did that, certainly wasn’t a game where the team was overmatched or flat - Win

2) No Complacency - Two pick sixes in the first two minutes - Win

3) Laviska Shenault Jr. - Shenault finished with 7 receptions for 65 yards on 10 targets, a long of 22 yards and had one pass meant for him intercepted. To keep him off the scoreboard is a win

4) A vulnerable secondary - Nope - Loss

5) QB? - Montez ended up playing for Colorado. Cal picked him off three times. He threw a ball at Tevin Paul after he kneeled down. They rattled him - Win

Week: 4-1-0

Season: 31-18-6 (7-1 When They Win Five Things)

1) Stanford Size Differential.

I don't mean Trent Irwin or Osiris St. Brown -- yes, there is another besides Amon-Ra! Those guys are manageable matchups for the Bears. I speak of tight end Colby Parkinson, who caught four touchdowns last week against the Oregon State Beavers. I speak of 6'5, 252 pound Kaden Smith, the Cardinal's second leading receiver. Both guys will be tough matchups against the Cal safeties, who will be giving up a lot of size. If Stanford flexes them out, do they keep the likes of Jaylinn Hawkins and Ashtyn Davis on them? Do they go in a different direction and try the outside linebackers? How does Tevin Paul matchup here, when they'll have to play him more due to his bulk against the run game?

Trace’s note: The Bears will have to face JJ Arcega-Whiteside after all, as Stanford’s top rebounder will be playing Saturday after doing a number on UCLA’s secondary. He’s drawn 16 penalties on either pass interference or holding calls this year, an insane number, and something that the Bears will have to avoid adding to.

Cal does defend traditional 11 and 12 personnel better than spread teams, I think, but most of those teams don't feature a tight end in the pass game as heavily as the Cardinal do.

2) Love Hurts

We spoke earlier about Arcega-Whiteside, who gave the Bears fits last year on third downs due to his physicality, but the ankle of Bryce Love once again will come into play. The senior running back hasn't looked healthy all year save for the occasional highlight, and still deserves the respect and full attention of the defense regardless. Tackling him in space or creating negative gains against him will be crucial, because even one missed assignment is enough. Cal has been terrific at that this year, for the most part, but still -- a wounded Love can be a deadly love. His long touchdown run proved to be the final margin of last year's Big Game.

Trace’s note: Love’s again not the player he was a year ago, and he averaged less than four yards a carry against UCLA

3) Maximize possessions

Last year's Big Game featured a grand total of 12 possessions. You wanna know how they went?

Stanford: FG, PUNT, TD, INT, TD, MISSED FG, END OF GAME (14 plays, 7 mins) - 17 points

Cal: FG, MISSED FG, FG, PUNT, TD, INT - 14 points

I don't anticipate the style or pace of the game being too different now than it was then, which means that missed opportunities for points -- whether they be shanked kicks or turnovers, by either team, will likely prove to be the differencemaker

Trace’s note: After a 49-42 Stanford win over UCLA, it looks like the Cardinal are capable of playing a bit more uptempo. Whether Cal will try to slow them down is one thing. More important may be creating possessions with turnovers, which is likely Cal’s path to victory in this contest.

4) Stay on the field

Going hand in hand with #3 is to make sure you set up manageable thirds, or avoid them all together. Stay on schedule on first down with controlled gains, win the line of scrimmage, have Moe Ways and company convert the occasional long pass, all that stuff. That's because this Stanford defense is gettable -- this year, the Cardinal are allowing 40% third down conversion rates, which are near the middle of the country, and also allowing a higher YPP than Cal is, which, if I had written that a year ago, you would have slapped me.

This seems tiresome to repeat, but it's the best chance we have of winning games at the moment, with this personnel. Continue to control the game behind Laird, with the occasional Chris Brown look.

Trace’s note: This gets a lot more difficult without the top two linemen this year in Mike Saffell and Patrick Mekari, but the Bears have to figure out something in order to stay ahead of the sticks. That includes not getting penalized, which turned a couple 3rd and short situations into 3rd and medium/long situations against Colorado.

5) Rock Memorial

Cal fans have few reasons not to show up this week, considering it's a legitimate chance to win the Axe. Combine that with a generous noon kickoff, students who should be rowdy and ready with classes done, and you should have yourselves a near sell-out and actual advantage. How that affects Stanford, who knows. They're used to playing in front of no crowd, or at least an unfavorable one.

Trace’s note: It’s a noon kickoff, right after the final day of classes (before dead week and finals that is). There’s no smoke. It’s a team worth rooting for. We’ll see on near sellout, but I know the Cal turnout at last year’s Big Game surprised a number of people around the program. We’ll see how much that changes things for a winning team that’s broken streaks all year.


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