Five Things: Big Game 2018
Holy crap, the ole boys did it. They beat USC, and it's thanks to:
1. Amon Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns vs Cam Bynum and Elijah Hicks - regardless of the two TDs, it was a win for Cal to keep them largely wrapped up. They were going to get some of their regardless -- it's more important that they never completely took over the pace of the game. St. Brown had a crucial fumble to show the first cracks in the armor. WIN.
2. Tackling in space - save for two or three places where Aca'Cedric Ware got loose, again, a huge win for Cal to be in the right position all game. WIN.
3. Run Ball - They moved the ball when it counted -- namely, to run out that last four minutes on the clock -- but struggled with it pretty much all game. Fair to say that this is a DRAW.
4. Cero Miedo - Did they look scared to you? WIN
5. McMinimum - They played him zero snaps. WIN.
Week: 4-0-1
Season: 27-17-6 (6-1 When They Win Five Things)
This week, to end a second streak, the Bears have a tall, but doable task in front of them. Here are the five things to make sure to watch:
1) Stanford Size Differential.
I don't mean Trent Irwin or Osiris St. Brown -- yes, there is another besides Amon-Ra! Those guys are manageable matchups for the Bears, who should get lucky enough to miss JJ Arcega-Whiteside this week. He was carted off two weeks ago and didn't appear against Oregon State. No, I speak of tight end Colby Parkinson, who caught four touchdowns last week against the Oregon State Beavers. I speak of 6'5, 252" pound Kaden Smith, the Cardinal's second leading receiver. Both guys will be tough matchups against the Cal safeties, who will be giving up a lot of size. If Stanford flexes them out, does Cal keep the likes of Jaylinn Hawkins and Ashtyn Davis on them? Do they go in a different direction and try the outside linebackers? How does Tevin Paul matchup here, when they'll have to play him more due to his bulk against the run game?
Cal does defend traditional 11 and 12 personnel better than spread teams, I think, but most of those teams don't feature a tight end in the pass game as heavily as the Cardinal do.
2) Cardinal skill player injuries
We spoke earlier about Arcega-Whiteside, who gave the Bears fits last year on third downs due to his physicality, but the ankle of Bryce Love once again will come into play. The senior running back hasn't looked healthy all year save for the occasional highlight, and still deserves the respect and full attention of the defense regardless. Tackling him in space or creating negative gains against him will be crucial, because even one missed assignment is enough. Cal's been terrific at that this year, for the most part, but still -- a wounded Love can be a deadly love. His long touchdown run proved to be the final margin of last year's Big Game.
3) Maximize possessions
Last year's Big Game featured a grand total of 12 possessions. You wanna know how they went?
Stanford: FG, PUNT, TD, INT, TD, MISSED FG, END OF GAME (14 plays, 7 mins) - 17 points
Cal: FG, MISSED FG, FG, PUNT, TD, INT - 14 points
I don't anticipate the style or pace of the game being too different now than it was then, which means that missed opportunities for points -- whether they be shanked kicks or turnovers, by either team, will likely prove to be the difference maker. It's another low McIlwain usage week, if any, because I still have nightmares of that fluttering duck picked off at the goal line.
4) Stay on the field
Going hand in hand with #3 is to make sure you set up manageable thirds, or avoid them all together. Stay on schedule on first down with controlled gains, win the line of scrimmage, have Moe Ways and company convert the occasional long pass, all that stuff. That's because this Stanford defense is gettable -- this year, the Cardinal are allowing 40% third down conversion rates, which are near the middle of the country, and also allowing a higher YPP than Cal is, which, if I had written that a year ago, you would have slapped me.
This seems tiresome to repeat, but it's the best chance Cal has of winning games at the moment, with this personnel. Continue to control the game behind Laird, with the occasional Chris Brown look.
5) Rock Memorial
Cal fans have few reasons not to show up this week, considering it's a legitimate chance to win the Axe and the team just beat USC. Combine that with a generous 4:30 PM kickoff, students who will be rowdy and ready for Thanksgiving break, and you should have yourselves a near sell-out and actual advantage. How that affects Stanford, who knows. They're used to playing in front of no crowd, or at least an unfavorable one.