Five Things: Arizona State
First, a recap from last week:
1. Handle the start time - W - 14-13 lead at the half, then takeover in the 3rd and 4th quarters when the bodies woke up. Just as I had hoped.
2. The road environment - W - Cal won this simply by having a notable presence at the game, which showed up a ton in the relatively empty stadium. Commies 1: SEC 0.
3. QB - W - I was definitely surprised the Bears won this category, but they did it decisively.
4. Limit Explosive Runs - DRAW - This was headed for a win before John Rhys Plumlee came in, and while you can excuse some of it to lack of tape and being up two scores, it's fair to probably mark this one a draw. Credit to their guys, who really are slippery as heck.
5. Injured guys - L - They performed well enough as a whole, but they're definitely gonna need all hands on deck for Arizona State and Oregon, which will scheme to take advantage of those edge guys.
Record: 3-1-1 (Bears 4-0 when they go at least .500 in 5 Things)
This is the biggest home game in a hot minute, and it's winnable. Vegas likes the Bears. I like the Bears too, if they can...
1. Pressure The Kid
No use getting sad over it now, but it is true that the phenom Jayden Daniels was one of the top choices on the board for Cal this last class at QB. That he spurned them for ASU isn't the end of the world, but it's essentially the duty of Cal, Weaver, and company to make him rue the choice on the field. He's had a reasonable statline of 5TD:1INT, thrown for over a thousand yards, and displaying some real moxie in leading ASU thus far, including to a win over then No. 25 Michigan State in East Lansing.
The key here is to just make him somewhat uncomfortable -- with two freshmen on the offensive line, ASU has allowed 8% sack rate for Daniels, whose PFF numbers (understandably!) drop when pressured:
No pressure: 67.1 grade as a passer
Pressure: 56.7 grade as a passer
No blitz: 68.5 grade as a passer
Blitz: 54.4 grade as a passer (although still dangerous! Has thrown for 4 of his 5 TDs out of this situation and 10.6 YPA)
He's also fumbled twice on the year already. Goode, if he's ready to play this week, will have a big role here -- otherwise Cal will occasionally send some DBs from odd angles and late, just as they have in the past. And if that's not enough, there's the suddenly emergent Kuony Deng, also...
2. Slow Down Eno Benjamin & Brandon Aiyuk
This could prove troublesome. Of all the weaknesses a team can have today, giving up short yardage runs is not the worst, but Benjamin is the kind of workhorse back that could make Cal pay for it. He and the ASU rushing offense haven't been quite as effective so far as he has been last year -- has only reached 100 yards against Kent State and is averaging a full yard after contact less than in 2018 -- but you have to figure Bears will still have him circled.
However, Aaron Maldonado could make his debut this week, which at least gives one more big body to rotate in alongside JOHNSON and Bequette. There will understandably be some rust here, but at least having the option would be fantastic.
Wide receiver Aiyuk -- 6'1, 206 and 12th in the country at 106 yards per game -- is the type of bigger body the Bears have occasionally struggled with under Wilcox, and this secondary is a little more banged up than last year's edition to boot.
He's done all his work so far on the left side of the field, which would have meant matching up with Cam Bynum in the Ole Miss game. If that's the way that stays, then you'll be watching to see how Bynum handles that physicality again compared to his junior year. To Bynum's credit, he's been way more physical as a senior, matching Elijah Hicks more often, but it's still gonna end up being a key matchup.
(Just for fun, the last few big guys Cal's struggled with: Dillon Mitchell is 6'1, 203, Arcega-Whiteside is 6'2, 225, and Jordan Lasley is 6'1, 213.)
3. Continue The Chase
For the first time last week, Garbers put up a performance that suggested the Bears could rise above being a tough out, and toward being a conference contender -- all the more necessary with the defense already banged up and playing a shade below last year's level. Repeating his work at home would give the team a lot of confidence headed into Autzen, and continue to keep momentum going for the Bears.
4. Establish The Run Game
Even if Christopher Brown Jr. isn't all the way healthy, being able to run the ball a bit more consistently will be necessary heading into conference play. They almost were unable to close out Ole Miss because they couldn't run in short yardage, and while there've been some standout players on the line -- namely, Saffell and Curhan -- the unit as a whole would like to show some progress. Unfortunately, that means running against the likes of linebacker Khaylan Kearse-Thomas (5 stuffs this year so far) and Jermayne Lole up front (4 run stuffs, 1.5 sacks). The Sun Devils have been outstanding in limiting explosive runs as a team -- only 8 on the season of 10+ yards, 1 of 20+ yards, and nothing longer than that at any range; Cal is 5th in 10+ yard carries, by comparison -- although they can be gotten from a missed tackle standpoint.
5. #PackCalMemorial!
It's a Friday night game, which is a nightmare for people trying to attend -- take the day off work if you can -- but right at home for the students, who have every opportunity to do so at the end of a long week of classes. Blow off some steam.
There's *massive* recruiting implications this week, and of course, weird things can happen on Friday night at Memorial.
Ask Wazzu.