Year one of Mark Fox at the helm of Cal basketball saw a six win improvement from the year prior, as the Bears went from an 8-23 (3-15 in conference) record in 2018-19 to a 14-18 (7-11) record in 2019-20.
Today, we're looking at some of the statistics changing from year to year, using some numbers from KenPom.
The Basics
From year to year, you can see a couple trends. The Bears played slightly slower under Fox than they did in the final year under Wyking Jones. Their offensive efficiency was worse, which may be more telling of a team that had five freshmen and six total newcomers than anything, but the defensive efficiency was a lot better, nearly 10 points per 100 possessions better. Cal switched from mostly 2-3 zone in the final year of Jones to mostly man defense under Fox.
Shooting
With the field goal percentages, you can see that Cal wasn't a good offensive team, as they won most of their Pac-12 games in grind-out, rock fight types of affairs. The field goal percentages as a whole went down offensively. There is an argument to be made that Cal lost perimeter shooters (Darius McNeill and Connor Vanover) and a shot creator (Justice Sueing) and didn't replace their contributions in the same way. It's true, as the Bears shot 115 fewer three pointers in 2019-20 (477) as opposed to 2018-19 (592). The Bears relied on Matt Bradley as their shot creator and perimeter shooter for most of the year, though Grant Anticevich played a bigger role and Kareem South ran hot and cold from the outside.
Defensively is what made a difference. A near 10% drop in 2PT field goal percentage is telling, and on a larger (not by much) proportion of shots. 3 point defense still wasn't a strength for the Bears, but the switch from primarily zone to man helped defensively. Those defensive efforts made it easier for a team that was flawed offensively to pull out close games. That's what Cal football proved over the first few years of Justin Wilcox, and basketball is doing some of the same things.
Turnovers, Rebounds, Etc.
The 2018-19 version of the Bears were surprisingly good at avoiding turnovers and forcing turnovers. Their bigger issues occurred when they didn't force turnovers or secure rebounds on the defensive end. The 2019-20 edition had turnover issues that plagued them toward the beginning of the year and conference schedule, but leveled out as Paris Austin turned a corner in conference play.
The offensive rebounding piece is an interesting one, as the Bears went from bottom quartile in the metric (289th out of 353 teams) to just outside of the top quartile (102nd) in limiting offensive rebounds. This, combined with the drastic decrease in defensive 2PT field goal percentage, are the two most drastic areas of improvement for the Bears from year to year.
To keep an upward trajectory, Fox and company are going to have to figure out a handful of things, mainly on the offensive end as they need more shooting on the outside in general. The game of basketball has changed, putting more of a focus on the three-point game, and it has to be a focus in recruiting classes and development moving forward.