California Football: Midseason Review, 2018

Cal sits at 3-3 heading into their final six games. It’s the second consecutive year where a 3-0 start turned into a 3-3 record, as the quarterback situation has been unsettled to put it nicely, and the offense, aside from a few pieces, has been discombobulated. There’s been some effectiveness, as they ran for more yards on Oregon than anyone and averaged over 6.2 yards per play against Arizona, but fourteen turnovers through three losses is the biggest issue that the offense has faced

The defense has been good, at times great, and at times put in poor positions by the offense. There’s a lot of talk by the leaders of the defense that if the offense commits four turnovers, the defense has to force five, but that isn’t a fair situation. The Cal defense fell off in that department over the past three games, forcing three turnovers as opposed to the seven forced through three games. Cal is currently -9 in the turnover ratio, which is tied with TCU for 125th.

Special teams has gone back and forth, to where it has been good (Ashtyn Davis returning a kickoff for a touchdown, Nikko Remigio nearly doing the same in one of his first punt returns) to bad (missed onside kicks and a couple muffed punts). Coverage teams have been mostly solid, aside from a few slip ups, but as defensive end Luc Bequette says, the biggest room is the room for improvement, and there’s lots of room for improvement from this group, and really every group on this Cal team.

Inside Linebacker Play has been Excellent

The addition of Peter Sirmon has paid dividends for the two inside linebackers in Jordan Kunaszyk and Evan Weaver. Both have been tackling machines, Weaver a little less so since getting hurt against Oregon, but the two of them have been incredibly valuable as the heart of the defense.

The Defensive Backfield has been as good as advertised

Gerald Alexander is probably the strongest player development coach of the group, or at least has shown to be as such. His defensive backs, particularly Ashtyn Davis, have been very good on the year. Davis is someone Tim DeRuyter has said can be an elite defender in the defensive secondary, and he has been in playing coverage. His coverage grade is the highest on the team (84.9), and he can cover up for mistakes with his speed.

With that, only Elijah Hicks hasn’t intercepted a pass among regular DB starters, though he’s been targeted only 14 times (allowing 8 receptions). Cam Bynum’s been steady, as has Traveon Beck, who routinely plays bigger than his size. It’s a group with confidence because of Alexander, who has imbued his group with plenty of his confidence.

Jordan Duncan Stepping Up

While the wide receiver group has not been a strength for this team on the year, Jordan Duncan has been the most consistent, though he’s now out for a bit after getting surgery. He was the best receiver among the group during the spring and fall, and while the stats don’t entirely back it up, he didn’t drop a pass in his 18 targets and he leads the group in receiving touchdowns.

The QB Dance

Going into the 2018 season, there was the expectation that Ross Bowers would continue to be the starter for the Bears at the quarterback position. He’d been the strongest candidate through the spring and for a portion of fall camp, but something turned at the end of fall camp. It has come out now that Bowers has injured his hand, the timeline of which is still somewhat in flux, but it has led to Chase Garbers and Brandon McIlwain starting three and two games respectively.

McIlwain’s been the more turnover prone of the two, with 11 of the 19 turnovers Cal’s had this year, five of which have been returned for touchdowns. Garbers has four of those turnovers, all interceptions. Part of that’s on the situations McIlwain’s been in, but even then there’s issues of relative inexperience there.

For now, it looks like they’re going with the two-QB system going forward, as Garbers is likely to play more going forward with McIlwain having turnover issues. Obviously, there’s more to the turnovers than just one player, but at the end of the day, the quarterback position is the most important one on the field, and that many turnovers can’t be tied to one guy if you’re going to win games.

Patrick Laird

Laird’s production has been a common talking point for Cal fans, but there’s another way to look at it

Laird (2017), Through 5 FBS games

53 carries for 209 yards, 1 TD; 20 receptions for 142 yards, 1 TD

Laird (2018), Through 5 FBS games

87 carries, 362 yards, 3 TDs; 24 receptions for 115 yards, 2 TDs

It’s forgotten that much of Laird’s production in 2017 came in the final five games of the season, as he cleared the 150 yard mark in his final three contests. Laird has looked a bit less explosive at times during the year, and that’s a concern for the offense, something we’re seeing in the receiving game (with fewer yards per reception), but that may be a reflection on the offense more than the senior running backs.

Offensive Line

Patrick Mekari has been the best offensive player for the Bears on the year, but the OL unit has been inconsistent to a certain extent, though a lot of that extent comes in procedural penalties. The Arizona game was one massive example of this, with 9 pre-snap whistles on the line (every lineman with a penalty). This has been the highest rated group on the offense in PFF grades, but it’s the little things that need stressing, like a player missing a block that leads to a strip sack that’s picked up for a score. It’s not getting a clean block on 4th and 1, leading to a turnover near midfield. There’s more to it than this, but it’s an experienced group that should be able to clean this up going into the harder portion of the schedule.

Ian Bunting and Moe Ways

The Michigan transfers came in without the biggest numbers, but they’ve been big targets for the Cal QBs, as Bunting has taken over the starting tight end job, not dropping a pass in the process. Ways has had to take one of the starting wideout positions, as Duncan’s been injured. Either way, they’ve added more than expected, which says multiple things either about how they were used at Michigan, how they’re been used at Cal, or there not being as much depth at Cal at the moment. All three can be true.

Evan Weaver

Weaver was maybe not an enigma going into the year, but someone who could’ve been a liability had he not made strides in pass coverage. He outdid expectations to this point, though he hasn’t had the same impact in the previous two games that he did in the first four. Justin Wilcox called Weaver a player who was born 30 years too late. He’s a hitter, he’s a playmaker, and he’s the closest thing Cal has had to an actual Viking (though the hair doesn’t quite match).

The OLB Switches

Cam Goode played an excellent three quarters in 2018. That’s all he’s going to get, as a foot injury cost him his season. Without him, the Bears have used eight different outside linebackers (Funches, Moos, Ogunbanjo, Psalms, White, Rambo, Paul, Udeogu). The final two have been working at a bit of a hybrid DE/OLB spot, where they’ll mostly be down linemen, but they have the ability to drop into coverage. Funches has been a full-time starter, but the other spot is in flux. Ogunbanjo has come in mostly on pass-rushing downs. Psalms and White have played intermittently when the Bears want speedier players on the field. And Rambo has been the most recent, as DeRuyter called him the closest thing they have to Goode, based on body type and physicality. For now, there hasn’t been one answer at the spot.

Not Too Many True Freshmen Playing

Before the year, the thought was more members of the class of 2018 would see time. Right now, there’s only two true freshmen members of the group that aren’t eligible for redshirts now in Ogunbanjo and Chris Brown Jr. There’s a few players who could still get past that threshold, as Aaron Maldonado has played in three games, Nikko Remigio, Evan Tattersall and Will Craig have played in two.

Jeremiah Hawkins

There’s a need for explosive players on offense, and Hawkins is one of the few that has shown a consistent ability on the offensive side of the ball. He’s getting more consistent, and after a couple drops early in the season he caught everything thrown his way against UCLA. With Duncan out, Kanawai Noa is set to get more time on the outside, and Hawkins will see even more time in the slot.

Chris Brown Jr.

The true freshman appears to be the primary back behind Patrick Laird and he’s been preparing for the role. According to Jordan Kunaszyk, Brown’s been the guy sitting close to Laird in meetings, trying to learn from the senior and take off from his habits. Brown’s a powerful runner and a big part of the special teams units, which can only help his case going forward.

Evan Rambo

Tim DeRuyter made a point that Rambo is as close to Goode as they have, and the outside linebacker position seems like a hand in glove fit for him. Him being moved own means that the Bears can use more of their base 3-4 going forward instead of working a pseudo 3-3-5 like they’ve done, which allows them to match up with bigger fronts to stop the run.

Aaron Maldonado

The true freshman has showed some pass rushing ability in his first three games playing on the defensive line, and he’s been a part of the pass rushing sub-package that the Bears have utilized. He’s going to be a player for the Bears going forward, and this is the time to develop him.

Turnover Margin

If this wasn’t obvious from seeing the turnover numbers, it means that something needs to change. This weekend, against Oregon State, it might be the quarterbacks, but it’s a broader change with needing to force more turnovers, give up less. The Bears ran through a turnover circuit this week, and against an Oregon State team that’s somewhat prone to fumbling (15 times in 6 games, only 6 lost), it could get them on track. Cal’s only won the turnover battle once this year, in the opener against North Carolina.

Scheming to get open

There’s a few things the Bears can do in this regard. There’s been some motions used, but not a lot. There hasn’t been much in the way of stacking wideouts, or running rub routes that can get them open. There hasn’t been much in the way of moving the pocket, despite having two mobile QBs. There’s a lot that hasn’t been done that can be done, and while some of that is scheme, some of that is players haven’t been making the plays that they weren’t making a year ago. That’s for a myriad of reasons as well, but again, there has to be a concerted effort towards getting guys in the position to make plays.

Strength up front

Both sides of the ball, the Bears need to get a push. While there has been some created pressure, finishing plays for sacks haven’t happened. On the offensive end, there’s been four or five instances of a 4th and 1 where the Bears couldn’t get the needed yard, including one late against Arizona at the 3 yard line. There’s the ‘Any Given Sunday’ speech about living and dying for that inch, and while cliché, these are the little things that can make a team great. It comes from finishing a block and finishing a sack, both things that this team is capable of.

Continuing Effort

There’s no lack of quit in this Cal team. As Justin Wilcox has said, there’s no lack of effort in this group, it’s just in the execution. It’s on the team, the staff, and everybody involved to keep on driving toward a goal, and making sure that there’s still faith that they can reach that. The goal is to get to a bowl, and it’s still attainable, it’s just that much tougher now.