On Sunday at 11:00 AM PST on Pac-12 Networks, Cal women’s basketball will take on the #6 Arizona Wildcats at the McKale Center in Tucson. Cal comes in at 0-8 overall and 0-5 in the Pac-12 while Arizona comes in at 7-1 overall and 5-1 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: On New Year’s Day, Cal lost a hard fought game at Arizona State by a final score of 56-53. Cal freshman Dalayah Daniels finished with 20 points and 6 rebounds.
RECAP: Cal WBB loses hard fought game at ASU
On Arizona: The Wildcats come in ranked #6 in the country with their lone loss coming at home to #1 Stanford on New Year’s Day. It was an 81-54 loss, so the Wildcats are licking their wounds a bit after getting crushed by the Cardinal. With Cal coming in winless, Arizona will look to quickly get back on track.
The Wildcats are led by senior guard Aari McDonald, who is averaging 19.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game. McDonald is one of the top guards in the country and does a great job of scoring and creating plays for her teammates. Junior forward Cate Reese is the other Wildcat scoring in double figures, averaging 12.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.
As a team, the Wildcats average 72.0 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field, 29.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 69.3% shooting from the foul line. They average a +0.6 rebound margin, 12.9 assists, 8.3 steals, 5.6 blocks, and 11.9 turnovers per game. Their opponents average 60.5 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field, 31.9% shooting from 3-point range, and 69.3% shooting from the foul line.
Keys to the game: For Cal, priority number one needs to be containing Aari McDonald. She’s the engine that makes this Arizona team go. If she has a 20+ point performance and is in a groove, it’s going to be one-way traffic for the Wildcats. If Cal can bog her down to 15 points or fewer, they’ll actually have a shot to stay in this game.
Secondly, Cal needs to maintain a good offensive flow. One of the things that helped against Arizona State was every time the Sun Devils looked like they were going to pull away, Cal found a way to answer for a basket. And as we saw earlier in the game, while Arizona State struggled to get going early, Cal was able to build up a healthy lead. If Cal can maintain good offensive flow, create shots for each other, and avoid offensive dry spells, they’ll put themselves in a position to win this game.
Finally, Cal needs to control the boards. Arizona’s +0.6 rebounding margin isn’t that great. Rebounding and asserting their will inside is not their number one strength. The Wildcats are much more of a perimeter team with McDonald at the helm. If Cal’s stellar front court can grab more rebounds, get some put backs, and get to the line for some free points, Cal could make this game a lot more competitive than people expect.
Prediction: Cal was a wholly different looking team on Friday in large part due to Dalayah Daniels being more comfortable out on the wing. So, it’s very possible that Cal plays another competitive game. Arizona got waxed by Stanford and showed that there is a big gap between them and the Cardinal. So, the #6 ranking shouldn’t scare Cal.
That all said, Arizona is at home and knows that they absolutely cannot drop this game to Cal. They have to win this one. On those grounds, I got Arizona winning rather comfortably by a final score of 70-54. Cal will play well and compete hard, but Arizona’s veteran experience and leadership will make the difference.
