On Thursday at 7:30 PM PST on Pac-12 Networks and KGO 810 AM, Cal men’s basketball will take on the Washington State Cougars in their Pac-12 home opener. Cal comes in at 6-8 overall and 0-1 in the Pac-12 while Washington State comes in at 10-5 overall and 1-1 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: Cal fell to Stanford in their opening game of Pac-12 play on The Farm by a final score of 68-52. Grant Anticevich was the top performer for Cal with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
RECAP: Cal gets drubbed at Stanford to open up Pac-12 play
On Washington State: The Cougars are led by sophomore forward CJ Elleby, who is averaging 19.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.9 steals per game. Elleby is one the top players in the Pac-12 and is a major reason for why the Cougars are off to the strong start that they are. Junior guard Isaac Bonton is also scoring in double figures, averaging 13.6 points per game.
As a team, the Cougars average 72.5 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field, 28.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 72.8% shooting from the foul line. They average a +1.2 rebounding differential, 11.4 assists, 6.9 steals, 2.5 blocks, and 10.6 turnovers per game. Their opponents are averaging 64.9 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field, 30.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 68.2% shooting from the foul line.
The Cougars played a pretty soft non-conference schedule, but to their credit won the games they were supposed to win. Kyle Smith is in his first year as head coach and seems to have his team playing with a lot more confidence than they’ve been in recent years. Over this past week, they got a split at home to open up Pac-12 play, losing 65-56 to USC before bouncing back in overtime to beat UCLA 79-71.
One interesting note is Washington State lost to Santa Clara on the road 70-62 while Cal lost to Santa Clara on the road 71-52. That may not mean much, but it’s the one common opponent Cal and Washington State have shared this season.
Keys to the game: If Cal is to win this game, sophomore guard Matt Bradley has to get the better of CJ Elleby. Bradley is averaging 17.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game as the one legit star this Cal team has. If Elleby has a big night and Bradley has an off night, I have a really hard time seeing Cal win this game. If both of them have a similar outing, then this game should be close. If Bradley wins the matchup with Elleby decisively, then odds are really good Cal wins the game. I hate to oversimplify things, but this matchup more than anything else will likely decide which team wins.
In addition to the Bradley/Elleby duel, Cal needs to defend the 3-point line. Cal is allowing opponents to shoot 36.7% from beyond the arc, which is 318th in the country. Stanford shot 9-23 (39.1%) from 3-point range last week, absolutely killing Cal from deep. If Washington State has a similar outburst from beyond the arc, odds are good Cal will drop their second game of Pac-12 play.
Finally, Cal needs to generate more offense. Cal is averaging 64.9 points per game on the season, which is 314th in the country. They average a meager 9.1 assists per game to go along with 13.6 turnovers. Last week’s outing against Stanford was awful in this department as Cal had 3 assists and 18 turnovers. Cal’s point guards Joel Brown and Paris Austin have to be the ones to step it up in this area. They gotta find ways to do their job, which is to facilitate and get others involved.
It's not just the low assists numbers and poor ball movement. Cal’s shooting could be better as well. Too often, Cal takes bad shots, hurries things in the shot clock, and stands around as if they aren’t running any plays. Pretty much everything about Cal’s offense needs to improve. The ball movement, the motion, everything. If Cal doesn’t wake up offensively, it’s going to be another long night at Haas Pavilion.
Analysis: Earlier this week, our own Trace Travers provided additional analysis on this matchup. Check that out below.
