Published Oct 3, 2019
Cal Rivals Preview Series: at Oregon
Trace Travers  •  GoldenBearReport
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Quick Facts

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When: October 5th, 2019

Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR

Time: 5:05 PM

TV: Fox

Radio: Cal Bears Sports Network (KGO 810 AM locally), TuneIn Channel, KALX 90.7 FM

Line: Cal +17.5 (O/U 46.0)

Series: Cal leads 40-39-2

The Last Time These Teams Played:

Oregon won a 42-24 decision over Cal thanks to five Cal turnovers, two Oregon defensive touchdowns, and a stellar performance from Justin Herbert and Dillon Mitchell.

Other Facts

- Cal head coach Justin Wilcox played for the Ducks from 1996-99, earning all conference honors at defensive back. Co-defensive coordinator and inside linebackers coach Peter Sirmon also played for the Ducks from 1996-99, and was all conference at linebacker (before a seven year career with the Tennessee Titans).

- Offensive line coach Steve Greatwood graduated from Oregon in 1980 and coached 32 years in Eugene. He also recruited four of the six offensive linemen who have started a game for the Ducks this year. He also recruited four of Cal's five projected starters.

- Offensive lineman Valentino Daltoso walked on at Oregon in 2016 before coming to Cal on scholarship in 2017.

- Cal has not won in Eugene since 2007, thanks to two Desean Jackson TDs and Marcus Ezeff forcing a touchback to seal the game for the Bears

- Cal doesn't have a guy from the state of Oregon on their roster, though OLB Orin Patu played his sophomore and junior years at Sheldon High School in Eugene. His dad, Saul, played with Wilcox and Sirmon at Oregon. Casey Filkins and Andy Alfieri will be the first listed players from the state of Oregon after they get to Berkeley in the class of 2020

Oregon Depth

Players to Watch

QB Justin Herbert: 96-129 (74.4% completion), 1127 yards, 14 TDs, 0 INTs, 78.0 PFF Grade

Herbert has been excellent, as the QB (a family friend of Justin Wilcox) has yet to throw an interception this year. He's done it with the deep ball (11-20 for 323 yards and 6 TDs on passes of 20+ yards). The offensive line has done an excellent job of keeping Herbert clean, as he's been pressured on only 29 of 143 drop backs.

TE Jacob Breeland: 18 receptions for 265 yards, 5 TDs, 75.1 PFF Grade

Breeland has caught 18 of 21 targets on the year, while being a red-zone threat for the Ducks, who haven't had their full compliment of wide receivers until this week (Juwan Johnson is still likely out)

LT Penei Sewell: 92.6 PFF grade, 2 pass pressures allowed in 147 dropbacks

In a word, the true sophomore left tackle is excellent. Sewell has the top run blocking grade of any Power 5 offensive lineman. He's super impressive and mobile, and a likely future 1st-round draft pick.

DL Jordon Scott: 8 tackles, 1.5 TFLs, 69.3 PFF Grade

A massive fixture in the middle, someone who the Bears could have trouble moving. Has six QB pressures from the nose guard spot.

LB Troy Dye: 25 tackles, 4 TFLs, 1 sack, 3 QB Hurries, 1 PBU, 71.1 PFF grade

Senior leader of the defense, has a team high 11 QB pressures to go along with his team-leading 25 tackles.

DB Jevon Holland: 21 tackles, 2 TFLs, 2 INTs, 2 PBUs, 80.3 PFF Grade

One of the top defensive backs in the conference, dynamic punt returner, top Oregon defender in defensive stops with 12.

Three Keys to the Game

Do the Modster Mash

Devon Modster needs to get in rhythm early, especially against a tough Oregon defense. That comes with finding space in the intermediate game, a week after not being able to complete a pass over 10 yards. Modster's a confident person, and finding that level of confidence is something he has to do.

Force a Herbert Mistake

Herbert has had a couple fumble issues, at least against Auburn, and the Bears need to figure out a way to make him look mortal. The Oregon QB becomes somewhat human when blitzed (21-37 for 176 yards and 3 TDs, 4.8 yards per attempt) and even more human when pressured (10-21 for 109 yards and 2 TDs, 5.2 yards per attempt). It hasn't been easy to get to him, considering the strength of Oregon's offensive line.

Leverage

Justin Wilcox talked about leverage as an issue in tackling, as the Bears missed a number of tackles against Arizona State, and it was due to leverage. A lot of Cal players didn't correctly take the air out of the ballcarrier, and didn't get the correct shoulder in on the tackle, leading to a number of guys, namely Eno Benjamin, spinning off tackles. With a couple of strong backs in CJ Verdell and Travis Dye (who both went over the century mark in Berkeley a year ago), Cal needs their tackling at the top level more than ever.

Prediction

Tough to predict anything but a loss here, as Oregon has been the one team to clearly have Cal's number over the past two years. Cal's defense should keep them in the game, but Modster's capability for production, especially against a defense that's allowed all of 15 points since the opening day loss to Auburn.

Cal has a tough road ahead of them this week, though the bye week following should bring some respite.

Oregon 24, Cal 14