On Saturday, Cal men’s and women’s basketball will host a doubleheader at Haas Pavilion. Cal women’s basketball (6-2) will take on the Santa Clara Broncos (4-4) at 4:30 PM PST while Cal men’s basketball (5-4) will follow with a game against Saint Mary’s (9-2) at 7:30 PM. Both games air on Pac-12 Networks.
Last time out: Cal men’s basketball defeated Fresno State on Wednesday 69-63 while Cal women’s basketball defeated Boston University 73-62 last Saturday.
RECAP: Cal gets much needed win over Fresno State
On Santa Clara: The Broncos are led by senior guard Tia Hay (12.8 points & 3.9 assists), redshirt junior forward Ashlyn Herlihy (11.6 points & 7.0 rebounds), redshirt senior forward Lauren Yearwood (9.9 points & 6.6 rebounds), and junior forward Merle Wiehl (9.6 points & 4.1 rebounds). Together, these four really carry the load. They do a good job of scoring and also crashing the boards.
The Broncos shoot 43.7% from the field, 32.9% from 3-point range, and 77.5% from the foul line for 71.3 points per game. Aside from the free throws, those aren’t great shooting numbers. However, they are holding opponents to 38.1% shooting from the field and 27.7% shooting from 3-point range for 65.3 points per game, so their defense is actually pretty good.
The Broncos also average 36.4 rebounds per game while giving up 36.4 rebounds per game, so their rebounding differential is 0. They average 15.0 assists and 14.6 turnovers per game while their opponents average 14.9 assists and 14.0 turnovers. They do an ok job at moving the ball, but turn the ball over too frequently to capitalize on their solid assist numbers.
On Saint Mary’s: The Gaels are once again the best college basketball team in the Bay Area, led by senior guard Jordan Ford, who is averaging 19.4 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field, 40.6% shooting from 3-point range, and 74.2% shooting from the foul line. The two other Gaels scoring in double figures are redshirt junior forward Malik Fitts (14.5 points & 7.9 rebounds) and redshirt senior guard Tanner Krebs (12.4 points & 4.2 rebounds). While no one else comes close to scoring in double figures on average, these three guys are clicking and playing really good basketball. Their teammates also seem to be doing enough to give them the support they need, even if no other individual is really standing out.
The Gaels shoot 49.3% from the field, 44.4% from 3-point range, and 74.7% from the foul line for 74.6 points per game. They’re a great shooting team and make teams pay for leaving them open. Defensively, the Gales are doing a great job at making things tough on their opponents, holding them to 61.9 points per game on 43.9% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from 3-point range. The combination of great shooting and great defense makes this Gaels team a difficult team to stop.
The only real weakness of this Gaels team is they’re not a great rebounding team. They do have a +4.0 rebounding differential, but aside from Fitts, no one else is averaging more than 4.2 rebounds per game. If you’re going to beat the Gaels, rebounding is where you have to start.
Keys to the Games: For Cal women’s basketball, the first key to the game is to dominate the boards. They have a +10.3 rebounding margin, doing a great job of killing teams inside. CJ West (9.6 points & 8.0 rebounds), Evelien Lutje Schipholt (7.1 points & 6.3 rebounds), Jaelyn Brown (13.9 points & 6.3 rebounds), and Alaysia Styles (11.0 points & 5.6 rebounds) do a really good job in this department. If they can crash the boards like they have all season long, Cal should be in good shape.
Secondly, Cal needs to avoid dry spells on offense. There are times this year when the offense has gone stupid, allowing teams to get back in the game. By “gone stupid”, I mean they’ve made careless turnovers and taken bad shots, resulting in significant stretches where they don’t score. If Cal can play a clean game and avoid such dry spells, they should win this game comfortably.
Finally, Cal needs to get Brown rolling. The strength of this Cal team is they all play together, but at times, they could be doing more to get Brown in a rhythm. As we saw in their win over Arkansas, when Brown is on fire, they’re capable of beating just about anyone. If Brown heats up and gets into a good flow, Cal should win this game easily.
Switching gears to Cal men’s basketball, the first thing they need to do to upset the Gaels is contain Jordan Ford. He’s by far and away the Gaels’ best player. If he has a big night, I don’t see Cal winning this game. They need to find a way to hold him below his scoring average and force others to raise their game. If Ford has an off night, Cal just might sneak out with a win.
Another key for Cal is to rebound. This is a major weakness of this young Cal team as we saw on Wednesday against Fresno State. Cal has to do a better job of boxing out and being in position to grab rebounds. If Cal can at least not get shredded on the glass and keep it respectable, they’ll put themselves in a position to win.
Lastly, Cal needs to play a clean game. If you’re going to beat a team as good as Saint Mary’s, you have to treat each and every possession like the game depends on it. If Cal can cut back on the turnovers, not commit silly fouls, and take smart shots, they could win. If they don’t, we’ll be looking at a long night at Haas Pavilion.
Notes: The last time Cal men’s basketball defeated Saint Mary’s was Saturday, December 12, 2015. Cal won by a final score of 63-59 behind 15 points and 11 rebounds from Ivan Rabb. Cal has lost their previous two meetings with the Gaels (2017 in Berkeley and 2018 in Moraga).
Jacobi Gordon’s status will be something to monitor. Cal head coach Mark Fox said on Wednesday his injury was minor, but didn’t give a specific timeline for a return. We’ll just have to wait and see if Gordon will be a go or not.
