On Saturday at 1:00 PM PST on Pac-12 Networks and KGO 810 AM, Cal men’s basketball will take on the Oregon State Beavers in Berkeley. Cal comes in at 9-11 overall and 3-4 in the Pac-12 while Oregon State comes in at 13-8 overall and 3-6 in the Pac-12.

Last time out: On Thursday, Cal lost to #11 Oregon by a final score of 77-72. Oregon senior guard Payton Pritchard finished with 21 points and 8 assists while Cal sophomore guard Matt Bradley finished with 25 points, two points shy of a new career-high.

RECAP: Cal loses close game to #11 Oregon

ANALYSIS: A look back at Cal vs. Oregon, By the Numbers Look at Oregon State

On Oregon State: The Beavers are led by senior forward Tres Tinkle (19.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, & 2.0 steals) and junior guard Ethan Thompson (15.5 points, 4.1 assists, & 1.4 steals). Both players carry a ton of the scoring load. The only other player scoring in double figures on this Beavers team is senior 7-footer Kylor Kelley (11.1 points & 4.9 rebounds).

As a team, the Beavers average 74.1 points per game on 47.0% shooting from the field, 32.5% shooting from 3-point range, and 73.7% shooting from the foul line. They also average a -0.2 rebound margin, 14.8 assists, 6.4 steals, 5.6 blocks, and 11.4 turnovers per game. Their opponents average 68.2 points per game on 43.0% shooting from the field, 34.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 73.5% shooting from the foul line.

The Beavers have a pair of good wins at Colorado and at home against Arizona, so they’ve shown they can beat quality competition. However, they also have some bad losses like losing to UCLA and USC at home, so they’ve been a bit up and down.

Keys to the game: If Cal wants to win this game, the first thing they need to do is keep Oregon State away from the foul line. Oregon State is 81st in the country in free throw percentage, 38th in the country in attempts, and 27th in makes. In the Pac-12, they’re the top team in all foul shooting categories. Oregon State makes a living at the line and will look to get to the line in this game. If Cal can keep Oregon State away from the charity stripe, they’ll be taking away a big part of their offensive attack.

Secondly, Cal needs to contain Tinkle. Tinkle will test Cal’s interior defense early, hoping to get into a nice flow. If Cal can force others to step up and not allow Tinkle to have a big game, Cal has good odds to win this game. If instead, Tinkle has a 20 point & 10 rebound kind of outing, it’ll be a long afternoon for Cal.

Finally, Cal needs to maintain good offensive balance. If it’s just Matt Bradley out there playing hero ball or something along those lines, Cal will not win this game. If instead, they play like they did against Oregon and Stanford by getting lots of different people involved, they should be fine. Cal has several players that can shoot in addition to Bradley: Kareem South, Grant Anticevich, Andre Kelly, and Paris Austin. If those guys are all in a nice flow, I like Cal’s chances to pull out the win.