On Saturday at 1:30 PM PST on Pac-12 Networks, Cal men’s basketball will take on the Oregon State Beavers in Corvallis. It will be the final game of the regular season for both teams as the Pac-12 Tournament starts next week in Las Vegas. Cal comes in at 13-17 overall and 7-10 in the Pac-12 while Oregon State comes in at 16-13 overall and 6-11 in the Pac-12.
Last time out: On Thursday, Cal got destroyed by the Oregon Ducks in Eugene. 90-56 was the final.
RECAP: Cal gets drubbed by the Ducks
On Oregon State: The Beavers are led by senior forward Tres Tinkle (18.2 points & 7.0 rebounds) and junior guard Ethan Thompson (15.1 points & 4.5 assists). Both guys do most of the damage for the Beavers, both shooting north of 34% from 3-point range. They both know how to shoot from the perimeter and also how to score inside, so they give the Beavers a lot of versatility.
Senior forward Kylor Kelley (10.8 points & 5.2 rebounds) and junior guard Zach Reichle (8.1 points) are the two other Beavers who offer the most consistent support to Tinkle and Thompson in terms of scoring. Kelley does all of his work down low while Reichle is a nice perimeter threat, shooting 34.4% from 3-point range.
As a team, the Beavers average 71.1 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field, 32.0% shooting from 3-point range, and 75.1% shooting from the foul line. They average a -0.5 rebound margin, 14.4 assists, 5.9 steals, 5.0 blocks, and 11.7 turnovers per game. Their opponents average 68.0 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field, 34.4% shooting from 3-point range, and 73.3% shooting from the foul line.
Before their most recent win over Stanford, Oregon State had lost four games in a row to Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon. The latter three of which were on the road. Now that they’re back home, they appear to have settled down a bit. They’ll look to finish the regular season off with a win on Senior Day against a Cal team that has won just one road game all year.
Keys to the game: If Cal wants to win this game, the first thing they have to do is get some shots to fall early and often enough. Cal doesn’t need to be on fire the whole game, but they need to maintain a healthy offensive flow. I keep writing this for every preview, but after what we saw in Los Angeles, Seattle, and most recently Eugene, it’s clear that this remains a major key for Cal in every road game. It can’t just be one guy. It needs to be everyone sharing the load and getting each other going on offense: Matt Bradley, Paris Austin, Kareem South, Grant Anticevich, Andre Kelly, etc. Everyone means everyone.
Secondly, Cal needs to defend the perimeter. Tinkle, Thompson, and Reichle can all shoot from beyond the arc and they’ll look to do so in their final home game. Cal needs to communicate well and make sure Oregon State doesn’t have a picnic along the perimeter.
Finally, Cal needs to take care of the ball. One of the reasons Cal defeated Oregon State in Berkeley is because they turned the ball over just 8 times. Cal played a pretty clean game in that respect. If Cal can keep their turnovers down again and not allow Oregon State to get too many free possessions, they should put themselves in an opportunity to steal this game.
Pac-12 Tournament Picture: If Cal wins, they’ll clinch the 8th seed in the Pac-12 Tournament. If they lose, Cal could land anywhere from 8-10. It just depends on how the tiebreakers shake out and who else wins. As for Oregon State, if they win, they could get the 8th seed, but a lot of it will depend on who else wins. They too are in a situation where a win prevents a possible slide in the standings. It’s a big game for both teams from that standpoint.
