The Cal football season has reached that point where optimism is tied to extrapolating and projecting the bright spots.
For instance, the Golden Bears scored 21 points in the fourth quarter at No. 8 USC last week to add some tension to the Trojans' ultimate 41-35 win in Los Angeles.
Can the Bears build on the success they had going a little more up-tempo late in that game? Did offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave stumble upon something in Jack Plummer's 406-yard passing performance that can carry over?
For a team that's lost five straight, that's enough to grasp onto as Cal (3-6, 1-5 Pac-12) travels to Corvallis, Ore., to take on Oregon State (6-3, 3-3) on Saturday (6 p.m. on Pac-12 Network).
Justin Wilcox is 3-2 against the Beavers in his tenure as Cal’s head coach (2017-present).
These two teams have traded off two-game win streaks going back to 2012 (and spanning multiple head coaches). Should the trend persist, the stars are saying that the Bears’ victory is locked in.
However, the reality is far from that. Oregon State’s stingy defense is not necessarily the opposition Cal wants to see right now.
The Bears are still very much on the business end of that five-game losing streak and it’s getting harder to find the light at the end of the tunnel.
There is technically still the chance to make bowl eligibility if they win out against the Beavers, Stanford and UCLA, while a loss Saturday would ensure a losing season and it turns from last ditch effort at a bowl to another year at 5-7, or a new Wilcox low at 4-8, or ... even 3-9.
Calling a game a "must win" feels sort of redundant (they all should be like this), but Saturday night sure qualifies in a big way.
Let's take a closer look at the matchup and what the Bears are up against ...
Oregon State Beavers (6-3, 3-3 Pac-12)
Coach: Jonathan Smith (5th season, 22-31)
Scoring Offense: 31.3 PPG (48th nationally)
Scoring Defense: 22.9 (43rd)
Total Offense: 406.9 YPG (60th)
Total Defense: 356.1 YAPG (41st)
What the Beavers do well:
Oregon State plays really, truly, exceptional defense. The Beavers have surrendered more than 30 points just twice -- once in a 35-32 win over the Fresno State Bulldogs and once in a 42-16 loss to Utah (in a game where the offense turned the ball over four times, including a pick-six). In addition, Oregon State held USC to a season-low 17 points in four quarters despite having their offense turn the ball over a staggering five times in that game.
In addition to this, the Beavers are only allowing opposing offenses to score on 70% of their trips to the redzone, an incredible number that ranks 7th-best nationally.
And if that wasn’t enough, the Beavers also have accumulated 15 defensive turnovers this year (for reference: Cal has 16 on the season).
If the picture isn’t quite clear yet: Oregon State is really, really good on defense. That’s been the calling card for this team under Jonathan Smith. Their excellent defense was the reason the Beavers were briefly ranked No. 23 in the first CFP rankings -- not their offense.
Where the Beavers might be vulnerable:
Well, if the ‘what they do well’ section only highlights the defense, you can guess what the weak point of this team is.
The offense is not horrendous, as it does average 31 PPG (boosted by 68 points against Montana State), but the Beavers have had a bit of an issue with consistency and turnovers. Oregon State failed to score more than 14 points against a truly horrendous USC defense. The Beavers also have thrown 11 interceptions and coughed the ball up an additional 3 times over the season, which bodes well for a Cal team that managed to steal one away from a stingy USC team.
The Beavers made a switch at quarterback recently as the Week 1 starter Chance Nolan has been sidelined with injury (and he was nothing spectacular in the grand scheme of things). Ben Gulbranson has taken over, passing for 905 yards, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions while chiefly serving to manage the game and keep the run game rolling.
There are a lot of ways to poke holes in this offense, but at the end of the day, they score in the mid to high 20s with some regularity. This will be the first ‘normal’ offense without a freak quarterback the Bears have seen since Colorado, which surely will come as some relief.
