On Wednesday at 6:00 PM PST on Pac-12 Networks, Cal men’s basketball will take on Stanford in the Pac-12 Tournament. Cal comes in as the #10 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament at 13-18 overall and 7-11 in the Pac-12 while Stanford comes in as the #7 seed at 20-11 overall and 9-9 in the Pac-12. Cal was in a three-way tie for 8th with Oregon State and Utah at 7-11, but due to tiebreaking rules fell to the #10 seed.
Last time out: On Saturday, Cal fell to Oregon State in Corvallis by a final score of 74-56. Oregon State senior forward Tres Tinkle finished with 24 points and 6 rebounds while Cal senior guard Paris Austin finished with 18 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists.
RECAP: Cal falls to Oregon State in final game before Pac-12 Tournament
On Stanford: The Cardinal are led by junior forward Oscar da Silva (16.1 points & 6.3 rebounds) and freshman guard Tyrell Terry (14.9 points & 4.5 rebounds). Together, da Silva and Terry really carry the load for this Stanford team, though as Cal saw earlier in the year, freshman forward Spencer Jones (8.9 points) and junior guard Daejon Davis (8.6 points) both have the capability to do damage as well.
As a team, the Cardinal average 70.1 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field, 37.2% shooting from 3-point range, and 70.4% shooting from the foul line. They average a -1.4 rebounding margin, 13.1 assists, 6.9 steals, 3.7 blocks, and 14.5 turnovers per game. Their opponents average 62.5 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field, 29.7% shooting from 3-point range, and 69.3% shooting from the foul line.
The Cardinal got off to a fantastic 11-2 start in the non-conference, dropping a close game to Butler and losing decisively to #5 Kansas. The Cardinal were hoping to contend for the Pac-12 regular season title, so to finish 7th place is a disappointment for them. Looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament, it’s unclear if Stanford has done enough to get in, making Wednesday’s matchup against Cal all the more important. If they want any shot of reaching the NCAA Tournament, they have to win on Wednesday.
Stats via CalBears.com: Cal is 1-1 against Stanford this year, losing 68-52 in Palo Alto on Thursday, January 2nd before winning 52-50 in Berkeley on Sunday, January 26th. Cal faced Stanford in the 2018 Pac-12 Tournament, losing 76-58 in the 1st round. Cal freshman guard Darius McNeill had 19 points while Stanford senior forward Reid Travis had 19 points and 13 rebounds. Cal leads the all-time series with Stanford 151-126. Cal is 15-4 against Stanford at neutral site games. Cal is 5-5 against Stanford in their last 10 meetings.
Keys to the game: If Cal wants to win this game, the first thing they need to do is defend the perimeter. When Stanford won in Palo Alto, they took advantage of Cal’s weak perimeter defense, shooting 9-23 (39.1%) from beyond the arc. Tyrell Terry and Daejon Davis each knocked down three 3-pointers.
Stanford will look to get going from deep and it’s on Cal to make sure that doesn’t happen. If Cal can defend the perimeter well and prevent Stanford from heating up from beyond the arc, they’ll put themselves in a good position to win this game.
Secondly, Cal needs to win the backcourt battle. The battle between Cal’s backcourt of Paris Austin, Matt Bradley, and Joel Brown and Stanford’s backcourt of Tyrell Terry, Daejon Davis, and Bryce Wills will have a huge impact on this game. Both teams really like to get their back courts going, whether that be attacking the rim or knocking down perimeter shots. Whichever team’s backcourt performs better will likely belong to the winning team.
Finally, I’m going to look at one more battle of note and that’s in the front court. The battle between Cal sophomore Andre Kelly and Cal junior Grant Anticevich and Stanford freshman Spencer Jones and Stanford junior Oscar da Silva will be key. Both sets of forwards are capable of doing damage both inside the paint and from the perimeter. If Kelly and Anticevich get the better of Jones and da Silva, I expect Cal to win. If on the flip side, Jones and da Silva eat Kelly and Anticevich for lunch, I expect Stanford to win.
