Cal Football: Five Things, Washington
As always, a quick review of last week's Five Things:
Garbers - DRAW - Outside of the two mistakes, he played almost identically to the stat line I outlined as successful: 250 yards, 2 TDs. I can't give him a loss for this category for that, even if he only looks a little better than last year so far.
Skills - WIN - Kekoa Crawford, welcome to the Bears. Hello, Nikko Remigio. Christopher Brown Jr, salutations. You were as effective as advertised. The bigger test is next week, but at least there was the hint of explosiveness that wasn't previously present. Last year, the Bears averaged a shade under 20% Explosives versus FCS Idaho State, so surpassing that mark signifies an improvement too.
JOHNSON! - WIN - 12 snaps. Outgraded every other lineman on PFF's metrics. One unforgettable highlight already.
Healthy - WIN - Outside of Daltoso -- who will play Saturday -- and some cramps, relatively clean. Last week, I set the baseline at not losing any defensive starter for the season, which qualifies.
No Traps - DRAW - On one hand, the team spotted UC Davis ten points before showing up, and didn't really pull away until after halftime. On the other, at least they won, which I guess is the definition of avoiding a trap game, right?
Season: 3-0-2 (1-0 when they win five things)
This week, it's a tall order -- the Bears are nearly two touchdown underdogs to Washington, and duplicating the upset from last year will require traveling on the road, versus a much more talented quarterback. Any path to victory exists will involve doing a majority of the below:
1) Pressure Jacob Eason
If you've seen any clips from the UW - EWU game, then you know we're not dealing with Jake Browning and his noodle arm any longer. Eason can zip it. Tight window throws, sideline throws, only-where-his-guy-can-get-it throws. Per PFF's metrics, EWU only managed 3 total pressures on 38 total dropbacks and zero sacks, which was a large part of why Eason picked them apart. As good as the Takers are -- and they can play much better than they did last week -- not getting pressure on Eason will be a deathwish for the unit.
So, where's the good news? Two of those pressures were attributed to the presumptive starting center next week, redshirt freshman Matteo Mele, who might be playing in place of the injured Will Harris. That's a potential vulnerability right there, particularly if DeRuyter decides to be more aggressive with A-gap pressures -- the kind he kept out of the UC Davis game. I expect to see more downhill attacking from Weaver and Deng in that regard, and maybe even the occasional look with Davis or Hawkins just for flavor.
Also related to pressuring Eason is the command in the middle, and how we eat up space. Weaver and Deng were both held without a TFL last week, which is an indicator they couldn't get as free as we've been used to them seeing, and in turn, indicates that the nose tackle position wasn't as effective as intended. (This was a surprise to me. I acknowledge that I may have misjudged how the losses of Siu and Maldonado, unproven as they were, might have played a role here.) Still, after watching the Davis game, it is my belief that we should be getting BRETT JOHNSON! on the field more often alongside Bequette -- the former flashed a ton in his limited action, and Bequette is already proven to be effective over at end, where he will face less double teams. Doing this might help the Bears win the line of scrimmage more frequently, which they admittedly struggled with against UC Davis, when they allowed nearly 4.3 YPC to Ulonzo Gilliam and company. (That number isn't bad in itself, but it's certainly not the Cal standard, and doesn't bode well against the stronger units in the conference.)
He didn't have a particularly great game when throwing to his right, either -- 2 of 5, 4 yards. That indicates that whichever UW receiver(s) lined up that way were losing their matchup versus the Eagles, and Cal could adjust for this in the same fashion.
2) Cal OL vs DL
All offseason, the Huskies were searching for more production from the front seven, which returned a good chunk of players. Based on Week 1, they definitely have some: Ryan Bowman, Josiah Bronson, Levi Onwuzurike, and Benning Potoa'e combined for five of UW's six sacks last Saturday, and while Cal didn't give up any to UC Davis, it's pretty obvious that they'll have a much bigger challenge in stopping the Huskies, who will also bring secondary pressure too, as safety Myles Bryant threw in an extra sack and a couple of stops in the run game for good measure.
Just as importantly, we're going to look for more consistent push generated up front by Craig, Cindric, Saffell, Daltoso (if he plays)/Mettauer (if he doesn't play), and Curhan, who produced nearly 200 yards on the ground, but most of which came after contact onto Christopher Brown Jr. If the Huskies are meeting him any sooner than 3 or 4 yards past the line of scrimmage, I expect them to finish those tackles more consistently than the Aggies did, which, in turn, will put the Bears behind schedule heading into 3rd downs. This situation probably isn't quite automatically damning as it was last year, but is clearly not ideal.
3) Turnovers
In which we mean, forcing some, and not making a bunch. In short, it is hard to see the Bears winning any game where they lose the turnover battle at more than -1 (they were -3 versus UC Davis and +2 against UW last year). This is standard underdog game-script, but if they can't do this, they damn well better..
4) Finish Drives
Opportunities figure to be hard to come by against the Huskies. Points will likely be at a premium on both sides, which means field goals will be suboptimal, and blown chances unacceptable.
In last year's game, the Bears scored 6 points on 5 trips inside the 40, and were bailed out by Evan Weaver's pick-six. (Washington, for the record, scored 10 on 4 trips. Both ratios were pitiful and meager, but in the absence of Weaver, they would have won, despite Cal having far more chances. You can see why this point made Five Things. )
5) Cal WRs vs Washington secondary
Okay, they got free when the pocket was clean for several seconds versus FCS UC Davis. Can they do the same against what is at worst a top 3 secondary in the conference? New starter Kyler Gordon has been an off-season darling. All-Pac 12 corner Elijah Molden returns.
Considering they've had some success against a pretty good unit in practice themselves, you like to think that the leading receiver goes more than 5 catches for 45 yards this time. You'd like to think.
Too many games against the Huskies as of late have involved the receivers unable to find any separation whatsoever (including the pummeling the Bears received in 2017), which means that even if they win match-up #2 and then lose here, it might be a wash...
...ington.