Cal Football Countdown: Day 80, Three Way Too Early Predictions, Offense
We're continuing the Cal football countdown with a look at three way-to-early offensive statistical predictions about Cal's 2019 season, with 80 days left until Cal kicks off against UC Davis.
Nikko Remigio leads the team in receptions
Remigio's 2018 receiving stats: 11 receptions for 62 yards
Remigio's first season saw him getting action relatively early as a true freshman, as he took over the punt returner job four games in, and started a handful of games as the season went on. The numbers admittedly aren't great, as he finished eighth on the team in receptions.
Reasons why he will:
- Patrick Laird is gone, and he led the team in receptions a year ago. The guys replacing him, in Chris Brown, Marcel Dancy and Deshawn Collins, likely won't be relied on as heavily in that department, opening up more opportunities
- Remigio's likely to garner plenty of playing time, drawing from his consistency in practice, workouts, and in his route running. He's one of the sharpest, if not the sharpest, route runners on the team
- It's a small sample size, but Remigio led the team in catches during the spring game
- Catching quick passes in space is one of Remigio's strengths, something Cal is looking to do more of in 2019.
Jake Curhan will have the most on-field reps on either offense or defense
Curhan took 896 reps on offense last year per PFF, behind only center Addison Ooms, whose 915 number was the highest on either side. Jordan Kunaszyk took the most for the defense at 888.
Reasons Why This Will Happen
- Curhan has been a rock for the offensive line over the past two years, taking nearly every rep and not getting injured
- Other guys on the offensive line have more injury history or are less experienced at their spots.
- The expectation is that the offense will have more plays in a drive on average than what the defense gives up.
The Cal Offense will Score Touchdowns on 65% or more of their Red-Zone trips
Cal scored on over 70% of their redzone opportunities a year ago (28-39). They scored touchdowns on less than half of their redzone opportunities(19-39). Give this team even four more red-zone scores a year ago, and you've got 3 more wins and a statue of Justin Wilcox being built. Even if you keep the same number of redzone scores and swap field goals for touchdowns to get to 65% (or 64.1 in this case, 25-39), Cal still scores at least 18 more points, which is more than the deficits from when Cal lost to TCU, Arizona, and Washington State combined
This is a hotter take than the first two predictions, but here's why it could ostensibly improve to that point.
Reasons Why It'll Happen:
- McCallan Castles is someone who can make a difference in this regard, a tall pass catcher who can split out and make tough catches over smaller defenders. Trevon Clark should help here
- A second year quarterback in Chase Garbers who's more confident from a mental and physical standpoint
- A run game, that judging by the spring and a mobile line, that can help set up misdirection and play action.