Cal Football Countdown: 66 Days, Worst Case Scenarios, Part 5.
The following scenario is speculative. It is in no way something we here at Cal Rivals are wishing for – let us repeat, in no way what we are wishing for -- and is merely a thought exercise into what we think might happen, should this specific scenario happen.
Plus, with it being the doldrums of the offseason – fall camp is so close and so far away – and us needing to continue filling out our preseason countdown, this can sometimes take us to weird, unexpected places. So, what happens if:
Justin Wilcox is hired off?
Teams have come calling on Wilcox already. That’s teams, with an S.
He said no. That’s no, with…out a good way to complete the parallel structure here.
It’s true that earlier this year, Wilcox signed a new extension that has him making toward the middle of the Pac, salary-wise, but it’s also true that if any blueblood was really committed, it’s not a number that would stop them.
The reality is that successful coaches at smaller programs – which Cal could conceivably invest the resources not to be, if they wanted – do usually get picked up elsewhere. Lifer-coaches don’t often exist anymore in the modern college football landscape. Not with most schools – especially big ones – itchier than ever to move on coaches, and poaching from down below. There’s too much money at stake not to.
As far as in-house transitions go, the Jim Harbaugh to David Shaw transition really is one of the best possible outcomes for when a less prominent football school loses a head coach. Stanford took a gamble on an up-and-comer (check), started a successful run (almost check), sees the coach leave for some other opportunity (not yet), replacement on staff extends run (TBD). DeRuyter or Sirmon would be the best in-house candidates if Knowlton wanted to go that route.
Should Knowlton choose to hire outwardly and start anew, well, that’s just a wild card altogether. At least among people who follow shootyhoops – and I don’t, so take it with as much salt as you need – the feeling on Knowlton hiring Mark Fox seems to be fairly lukewarm, although they remain open-minded that he can bring the program to respectability-adjacent. It’s not out of the question that a similar hypothetical hire would be made for football, but any conclusions drawn about Knowlton from the Fox hire are soft at best. The state of both sports are completely different, and a change had to be made. Football isn’t on track for something like that at the moment.
This was a lot of words to say, I don’t know what happens if a bigger program comes calling for Wilcox. A few already have, and he’s already said no to them. He’s also done some things here that no one has done for a decade. Who’s to say he won’t keep doing what no one’s done?
Scenario likelihood: Low (immediate future); high (because in the cosmic scheme of things don’t all coaches eventually have to go?)
Scenario survivability: Unknown